This is our first video of the year and again happy to report that we did 21.3% last year and thus far this year we are up well over 3% now so I'm very very happy with what the portfolio is doing. I have got to admit right now what is going on in the world is just incredible with the Trump victory. He has moved since January 2nd so quickly to implement his policies and the truth be told nobody really knows what his policies are. Initially he started with tariffs against Canada and Mexico and in a very short time he was able to get Canada and Mexico to acques to his demands of better border patrol cracking down on fentel etc so he's really flexing his muscles and showing that he is going to use the weight of the American government the American economy to change things. Now tariffs appear to be Trump's attack plan or weapon of choice and normally tariffs are thought of as very bad things as it creates incredible costs and incredible hardships on consumers so specifically I think what Trump is trying to do is to rebuild the US economy, move away from globalism, more to a meral approach where America he says is no longer going to be the dumping ground for consumer products but America is once again going to start manufacturing things. So, this is a massive change in what is going on now. Whether Trump persists on the tariffs or not remains to be seen so it's very hard to draw conclusions immediately, but I think he will continue to use them as leverage. The problem again with tariffs is if he brings tariffs into the US the costs for us consumers go up considerably and it's very damaging to other countries, Canada included. I have to admit I feel a bit sorry for our politicians who have been caught blindsided by this and don't really know what to do because we've never seen this before. Ultimately I think Trump is trying to as I mentioned strengthen the US economy's industrial base again and with the revenue he takes in from tariffs it's quite possible he may want to do a tax cut for US citizens which would in essence be a good thing but he's going to have a really tough time with the deficit. Now he's brought in Musk and others to try to cut cost tremendously in government programs but as we sit, the US economy and the global economy are still not in good shape. Currently both gold and silver are up sharply this year and in short what we are seeing is a global reset. Trump has effectively said that he is repatriating US gold back to the US and we’ve seen this through recently a delivery report of I think 400 to 450 tons of gold that need to be delivered from London back to the US. What we’ve seen is a problem with delivery as there’s not enough gold for the huge demand that has come through the comx where these contracts, instead of settling up in cash, are demanding the physical gold. So, this is just a continuation of what we've seen where the world in the globalist structure is no longer going to be the case in all countries and now including the US are bringing their gold home because effectively gold has always been used for international transactions. I heard a very good quote from Vince Lany (a gold trader) who I listen to his podcast daily said that for two generations the government and the media have been very good at taking gold out of the equation where a lot of people don't really understand what gold is or what its historical practices or what the historical relevance was and as we go forward I believe the US and all countries are repatriating their gold so that they can use it going forward. I think this trend is going to continue now. This is a reset much like 1934 where FDR confiscated gold and revalued it so that the US dollar dropped 40% against gold or Nixon going off the gold backing. With this massive amount of gold being repatriated to the US it is resetting the stage going forward so as this takes place I think what governments and central banks are looking to do around the world is to increase the amount of gold they have on the balance sheet, reduce their US treasury bills and treasury bonds which is a problem for the US treasury as they have to issue I believe anywhere from 7 to 9 trillion dollars of bonds this year. So what I think they're trying to do is repatriate the gold not go back to the gold standard but one thing what we have seen is Judy Shelton wrote a book recently and Trump nominated her in his first term for Secretary of the federal reserve and she did not pass the approval process. But she wrote a book where she's recommending that the US issue gold back bonds again not necessarily going back to a gold standard but using gold in the process of finance.
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The Filipiuk Group's commentary
A financial reset in progress
In this weeks video we discuss the impact of Trump's tariff policies and why the recent trend in the gold market is indicating that there's a financial reset in progress.
Gold's resurgence in the banking system
In this video we discuss the reasons behind the current bull market in gold. Including gold's history in the banking system and its new elevation as a reserve asset as well as the new BRICS Nation's unit with gold.
Gold's elevation to a tier one asset in the banking system is a massive change that will have significant implications going forward. Gold will now be used in the global banking system in ways we haven’t seen in our lifetime and will become a more relevant asset in the investment world. To understand how big of a change this we are must look back at when it was removed from the banking system originally and why it has come back. Now the current global US dollar-based system was created in 1944 at the Breton Woods conference in New Hampshire. Gold was pegged at $35 an ounce to the US dollar and other countries could peg their currency value to the US dollar as well. This agreement was a huge benefit to the US but had its challenges and weaknesses. The system in its original form began to break down in the 1960s resulting from a massive increase in US dollars globally. The US in effect had created too many dollars when compared to the gold that they needed to back it. Other countries had begun to demand gold for their US dollars because those dollars were not worth what the peg stated. By 1971 the US stopped pegging the dollar to gold at $35 an ounce because countries demanded gold for their dollars and had depleted the US gold reserves ending this arrangement. It essentially let the price of gold float freely in the open market. Gold had been illegal for US citizens to hold since 1934 but in 1975 the US reversed this law, and it was once again legal for US citizens to own gold. January 1st, 1975 was the first day of this change and it was expected that there would be massive demand for gold as a result, but this didn’t happen because at the same time the bank of international settlements conveniently devalued gold's collateral value on bank balance sheets. This move effectively made it much more costly for banks to hold gold and as a result banks in the western financial system sold their gold in massive quantities. This selling value completely crushed the expected increase in gold buying by US citizens. This policy devaluation of gold's value in the banking system helped to drive the price of gold down by almost 50% over the next year and a half, temporarily crushing the bull market in gold however continuing inflation. Problems in the US persisted throughout the mid-1970s and this brought back buyers into gold investor. Demand for gold eventually took the price to a new high of $850 in 1980 but the impact of gold’s demonetization by the banking system would be obvious to market watchers. Massive money printing over the next several decades would drive a stock bond and real estate bull market in which gold as an investment became an afterthought. Gold had been effectively removed from the banking system in 1975 and wasn't needed by investors anymore fast forward to 2019 and gold has once again been brought back into the global banking system. The BIS’s Basal 3 agreement raised gold status from a tier 3 asset to a tier 1 asset. This rule change would effectively remonetize what was originally done back in 1975. This move would now make gold just as valuable as other tier one reserve assets such as US dollars and US treasuries within the banking system. This move means that now central banks and governments, the biggest players in the world, will want to buy gold more than at any time in the last 50 years. This policy change was done with very little fanfare and virtually no business media coverage. Subsequent to this change we have seen massive central bank buying most recently in 2022 and 2023. This central bank buying has helped drive gold to a new current all-time high of $2,800 an ounce. This buying is very likely to continue another factor that is important to consider is that currently the BRICs nations are in the process of creating their own settlement currency or unit using gold. The gold waiting in this unit ensures that gold will be backing payments when settling trade imbalances between these BRICs nations. This new arrangement will increase gold's usage going forward and should help drive the current gold price much higher in years to come. Western nation’s central and commercial banks will be scrambling to accumulate more gold. For this new reality with the revaluation of gold and its possible new use in international trade settlement it is likely that we will see a large change in the relative value between gold and hard assets versus financial assets like stocks bonds and real estate. Gold will rise and financial assets will drop in relation to one another with the ever-increasing global conflicts around the world gold's value and usage internationally will rise as well. Given the changes we've discussed this is why we believe that gold will become an important asset in investment portfolios going forward in order for investors to preserve their net worth and properly hedge the financial assets they own they must have a portion of their portfolio in gold.
BRICS nations meeting this past week
In this week's video we discuss the important takeaways from the BRICS Nation's meeting that finished last week and a quick note on a summary of our long write up from a few weeks ago.
The BRICs meeting in Russia has now concluded and as expected there were some interesting developments that were brought forward in this meeting. As I've stated before the Breton Woods Agreement that’s been in place since the 1940s with the US dollar as the dominant world reserve currency is slowly whittling away. Now one of the things that triggered this was the US action in removing Russia from the Swiss system. Basically, the US froze Russian assets, swift trading system, and as a result took the Russians off the swift trading system which is basically the system that the whole globe uses. Now having seen these other nations that are afraid of falling on the wrong side of the US said maybe we should help the Russians develop an alternate trading system so that we don’t get frozen out from the trading because of US sanctions. So, the BRICs have really moved quickly in developing an alternative trading system to the US dollar. Now this is a very important development that I can't emphasize enough that's going to influence and affect investors globally. In short the Breton Woods Agreement allowed the US to have commodities globally priced in US dollars and now this was a huge benefit because the US could print lots of money run deficits which they've done since the early 60s and the excess money that they were printing and running these deficits could be absorbed globally meaning countries outside of the US always needed US dollars to buy commodities. Countries were happy to keep US dollars on reserve but also buy US treasuries. Now this is changing because countries have as we've seen with the Ukraine war don't want to have a lot of US dollar assets and treasuries if they run a file of the US. So, this meeting in Russia was very significant to the BRICs settlement system. One of the things that was proposed that Vladimir Putin has said they'd like to produce a BRICs precious metal exchange and commodity exchange so that commodities will trade in their nations under their control as opposed to the west. Right now, commodities have been largely priced in New York City and London although Shanghai has recently developed in the past two decades. By pricing their own commodities the BRICs nations feel they'll get a much better price for their commodities and hence that will benefit their economy so the BRICs developing a different trading system using 40% gold is a big event and as I've mentioned there's been very little coverage here in North America on this so I did a write up last week showing the history of the US dollar dominance and how it's changing. We've also produced a short bullet point highlighting the import important points from my article. I encourage you to look at that and if you have time to read my article again because it's going to have a big impact on investment returns going forward. It's a long-term progression but as it stands now one of the reasons why gold and silver may have run up so much this year is the markets are preparing for what is developing in this BRICs settlement system. So what I think this means for investors specifically in the US and Canada is that over the next decade or two we're going to see a rise in hard assets like gold and commodities, oil etc and a decline in financial assets meaning stocks, real estate and bonds because with a different, alternative trading and currency system, it's going to be harder to create leverage in this world and let's face it leverage has been a massive driving factor between behind the asset gains in stocks and really state over the last 40 or 50 years. So please have a look at my article and the bullet points as I think this is a very large issue and a big turning point in how the world does business going forward.
The implications of the Federal Reserve's first rate cut
In this week's video we discuss the Federal Reserve’s decision to lower interest rates 50 bps, the beginning of a global rate cutting cycle, and what investors can expect in stocks and precious metals.
Yesterday the US federal reserve cut interest rates 50 basis points taking the fed funds rate down from 5 and a half to 5% and this is a very significant event because it means now that the globe is in a loosening cycle the federal reserve has cut rates half a percentage point. This basically allows other central banks around the world to start cutting interest rates and continue to do so as the global economy appears to be slowing. Specifically in the US the federal reserve cut rates believing that the economy now needs help and as a result we’re likely to see many more rate cuts to come over the next one to two years. Now if we look at the bond market the US federal reserve controls short-term interest rates meaning the overnight lending rate between banks is controlled by the federal reserve. However, the bond market is set by traders, investors etc., who every day, buy and sell bonds and determine what the interest rate is for any specific period. So, the fed only controls the short term, the markets control the longer term however the two-year bond is a very important indicator. Jeff Gunak at Double Line Capital who's one of the largest bond fund or fixed income managers in the world always states how important it is to look at the 2-year bond. Now the 2-year bond currently as of yesterday was at 3.6%. The fed funds rate was at 5.5%. This is a difference of 90 basis points and I read an article the other day where the author indicated this is one of the largest discrepancies or differences between the fed funds rate and the two-year bond rate 190 basis points and what it says is effectively that the federal reserve is behind the curve meaning the fed now has to catch up to what the bond market has been saying. So, the two-year bond has rallied dramatically taking yields down to 3.6% and in order for the fed to get a normalized yield curve and a normalized yield curve is when short-term rates are lower than longer term rates. The fed has to cut at least two full perent percentage points to normalize the curve so it looks like we're in for as I mentioned a lot of interest rate cuts going forward and what this means is that effectively central banks around the world are cutting interest rates to devalue their currency in order to stimulate loan growth to reflate economies but the one problem now is that inflation that's been coming down isn't necessarily under control or finished with. So the fact that the central banks are making money cheaper at a time where inflation is still effectively in the system raises some real problems so what this effectively means for investors going forward for stocks it's quite likely stocks may rally initially on the euphoria of interest rate cuts however the reason interest rate cuts are occurring as I mentioned is because the economy is weakening and with a weakening economy it's quite likely we will see earnings numbers for the US economy and for stocks coming down. So, the stock mark market could be vulnerable over the next 3 to 6 months for precious metals and commodities it's quite bullish. As I mentioned the currencies of the world are going to be devalued by lower interest rates and as a result hard asset could do very well. So, for investors going forward it's important to remember we have just started an interest rate cycle lowering the cost of money and as a result we will see I think very volatile markets and a lot of uncertainty going forward. I do expect the precious metals to continue to rally on the continued inflation fears and the geopolitical problems that are occurring right now in the world.
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Economic news
Economic Impact
To keep you informed and stimulate your thinking, Stéfane Marion and Denis Girouard take a look at economic news and share their perspectives in our monthly informative videos.
Hello, everyone. Welcome to Economic Impact. Today, it's June 11th, 2025 and as usual, I am with our Chief Economist, Stéfane Marion. Hello, Stéfane, a little bit different today, a lot of structural change and we want to talk about it.
Well, we hope to keep people interested, but you're absolutely right that we'll mix a bunch of stuff that's cyclical versus structural, which makes the story more interesting, I think. But let's start with the cyclical dynamics that we've seen, we're seeing in U.S. so, well, we've said many months ago that, maybe US corporations would start reacting negatively to the uncertainty created by the tariff structure in the U.S.. And what we've seen in the latest jobs report in the U.S. is that corporations are still hiring if you look at the redline Denis, but they're not hiring full time. So, they're not committing their capital full time, whether it's human capital or physical capital, not investing right now. So, it's not just Canadian corporations that are struggling to understand the new dynamics, but we're seeing it in the jobs report. So, this sets the stage for slower growth in the U.S. in the second half of this year.
This is what you call uncertainty for the future. And you don't want to have a full-time employee, you prefer to have a part-time employee that, if things are going bad, you know, it's easier to lay off people.
You don't want to commit until you actually understand what your business model will be like say the next six months or next year.
But the equity market is doing well, not new high, but despite of that, you know there's good news.
So, let's put things in perspective. You're right, not doing badly in recent weeks. It's a recovery, but U.S. stock market is one of the only ones that's not back to its previous highs. So, there's still this level of uncertainty created by, there's high valuation in the U.S., we're talking about structural adjustment to the supply chain. Companies are not committing capital right now. So, the U.S. market is coming back, don't get me wrong, but it's one of the few markets that's not back to an all-time high.
Yeah, but that performance is probably only linked because of U.S. investors. Because when you look at the greenback or the U.S. dollar, it's not doing well at all and keeps going down.
So, it's been driven by U.S. investors, the recovery, because foreign investors, you're absolutely right, they're still shunning U.S. assets, whether it's the U.S. bond market or U.S. equity markets. It's not that they're not buying, but they're not buying as aggressively. And that's clearly apparent on the exchange rate in the U.S., which is struggling this quarter. It's one of the largest depreciations in over five years, down 3.5%. So, it means central banks are less active in buying U.S. assets, but also private investors. So that's, you're absolutely right, you know, the perception of U.S. investors versus U.S. economy explains why the U.S. stock market has struggled so far this year.
Yeah. And if you go up north in Canada, the story is totally
different. Our stock market is at a new high right now.
Despite
the fact that we have a 7% unemployment rate now and which is a
massive difference with the U.S. at 4.2%. The stock market in Canada
is at new highs. And Denis, I think that's a reflection that everybody
understands that we are challenged cyclically right now with the
uncertainty on tariffs. But at the same time, what we understand also
is, since the federal election, the Prime Minister, well the throne
speech was actually read by King Charles. But there's a commitment
from the federal government to focus on the Canadian economy on the
scale that we haven't seen in many, many years. So, people are saying,
well, if I don't really like U.S. assets, I don't understand. I
clearly understand that the federal government in Canada wants to be
pro-growth. And that's, you know, there's, you know, there's this wind
of optimism that is blowing north of the border.
And for this time around, it's not just oil and gas that's doing well, it's a bit widespread in the economy.
Yeah, so when we saw the stock market doing very well in 2000, it was mostly the energy sector. But, with this commitment of the federal government to reindustrialize the nation, that means, you know, more corporate lending, attracting capital, we're open for business. Then obviously, under these circumstances, you can understand that, you know, the financials of the Canadian banks are at a new all-time high. Having said that, it's still not a one trick pony with only the banks. We have industrials doing well, materials, consumer discretionary. People believe that there will be new structural policies deployed in Canada to close the valuation gap that we've endured with the U.S. for over a decade. So again, Denis, this is a structural change. Understand, we are cyclically challenged. Let's be careful in the months ahead. But structurally, there's something different happening in Canada. That's how powerful this can be when policymakers decide to become pro-growth.
Yeah, and the consequences of that, Canadian dollar is going higher because now you have probably Canadian investors, but foreign investors buying in Canada.
Well Denis, that's the flip side. I think if people are interested in your assets, the currency will do well. So, the Canadian dollar's appreciating about the most in four years. So, we were concerned earlier this year about Canadian dollar depreciation. But with the throne speech that we saw, the commitment to be pro-growth for the Canadian economy, these are words until now, but maybe the actions will speak for themselves in the next few quarters, but this is very powerful and it's driving a stronger Canadian dollar. So, might be a source of frustration for exporters, but clearly there's demand and that's an improvement in our terms of trade right now.
And you know, on the same path, Mr. Carney says that I want to invest more money in defense and, and that's kind of good military expenses because you have to build the economy around that. But it's not only building tanks, and it's helping the whole economy.
So, the commitment is to grow the economy, but at the same time to be an active participant within NATO because right now we have the lowest military expenditure in the G7, which means that we are struggling as a nation. Now, the commitment to increase our military complex is very, very important. So, to me, that speaks volumes to the government's commitment to do so. But if you do so, and with a Buy Canada Act, all of a sudden, I have more leeways to improve our industrial structure.
And the next slide will show that we need to invest in our economy. You know, you've been saying that for months and years now. And when you compare ourselves, there's a lot to do.
Oh, Denis, you know, on manufacturing, we've been atrophying our manufacturing so much that, you know, now for the first time ever, our manufacturing sector is smaller than Ireland, which is a population of 5,000,000. So, we need to do a lot better there. And I think that I can be hopeful that with this new procurement system, we can actually kick start manufacturing, and that means reindustrializing our nation.
And you've been discussing that in the past. You know, there's so much regulation in Canada. But once again, the next slide, you know, speak by themself, we need to do something.
It's a big slide, but all you need to know, Denis, is that the federal government is responsible for 320,000 regulations, in manufacturing alone at 110,000. So, it doesn't cost much for the federal government to show the example and say, in order to deploy private capital in Canada, I'll make it easier. I will slash the regulatory requirements that we have, which are one of, some of the most punitive in the industrialized world.
And that's excluding provincials and municipalities.
No provinces, no municipalities on that. So, but if the federal government shows the example, all of a sudden, Canada becomes more investable. So, to me, that's a structural change that would be extremely conducive to this growth and evaluations, the discount that we've been dealing with for the past decade can go away. This is, you know, structurally speaking, as I said, I mean, these are probably the most, the best news we've had from Ottawa. If we can tackle regulations as well as the other commitment that you have, I can only be more optimistic for our country going forward.
Well, Stéfane, this is a change from the past few months and not only few years about Canada, but it's the first time we were seeing your optimism about Canada. And it seems that also, you know, the investors and the foreign investors are, then more to come I believe.
The next challenge Denis is the upcoming G7 meeting. If Mr. Trump, if Mr. Carney can show that he gets along with Mr. Trump and then it looks like we can commit to a trade agreement in the next few quarters, I think people will become even more interested in Canada. So, you know, the words have been put out there. Now we need to see the actions and if there's a commitment to come up with these actions and after G7 meetings, all of these things could make us even more positive for Canada so hopefully when we see each other later this summer, we'll have better news for the Canadian economy. But things look up right now despite the fact that we are cyclically challenged, there's good news, structurally speaking.
Well, thank you very much, Stéfane. Thank you all for listening to us and we'll see you in a few weeks. Thank you.
Property Perspective
Our National Bank specialists decode the latest trends in the real estate market, including interest rates, the resale market and forecasts for the coming months.
Hello everyone and welcome to this November 28th edition of Property Perspective. Today I have the pleasure to be with Matthieu Arseneau, hello Matthieu.
Hi Simon.
And with Andrée Desrosiers.
Hello Simon.
Hello Andrée. Our topic of the day, what's best for my mortgage, a fixed or a variable rate. But before we enter that interesting discussion with Andrée, let's talk with Matthieu about recent economic news that influence the real estate market. So Matthieu, a number of events have occurred since we last spoke, all of which have an impact on the economic outlook, obviously. First, what are the implication of the Republican sweep in the US presidential election for economic growth and interest rates?
Yes, this was a big event and there will be application for that for Canada over the next four years. Higher uncertainty, we saw that with the announcement of potential tariff on Canada. We'll see. But clearly, in my mind, the big event and this has implication for the housing market in Canada, particularly for interest rates. It's the fact that there could be much more fiscal stimulus South of the border given the promises of Trump during the campaign. As you can see on that chart, while the Congressional Budget Office was expecting roughly 6% of GDP deficit, which is already very high, it could be as high as 8% if all those promises are realized by Mr. Trump. So at the moment the Federal Reserve is trying to calm inflation in the US, calm the economy. There's government that could support growth over the next few years. So before the election, the Federal Reserve started to decline rates. They did already 75 basis points. But you can see that at the same time it didn't mean that longer term rates decline. In fact, it increased because of risk of tariffs and its implication for inflation because of stronger growth, though that's something we have to keep in mind. And the problem with that increase is given a global correlation in interest rates, when you have the largest economy in the world supporting the economy and having those rates it has an impact on rates in countries with economies not as strong as the US and has to cope with those increases. And that could be difficult for a couple of other economies in the world given the increase of those of those rates. So big implication and that has implications for Canada as well.
Very interesting Matthieu, so the ability to lower the prime rate in the US now looks more limited. What about Canada?
In Canada, so we saw that in fact for investors expectation for the policy rate in the US, it was expected at 3%. Now it's much more closer to 4% by the end of next year. So clearly investors revised their optimism for rate cuts in the US. In Canada, the situation is clearly different in our view when you look at the labour market here, I'm showing the jobless wait for the prime age workers, the 25-54, it has continued to increase over the past few months. And that's diverging with the US and it's now its highest since 2017. And we don't see stabilization over the next few months given the hiring intention of corporations. So for us that's a sign that the economy has cooled significantly and this is reflected in inflation. When you look at services, core services excluding shelter in the US, it's running at 4.4% because they didn't have that weakness that we got in Canada, it's so it's running at 1.3%. So clearly inflation is under control here. So yes, we expect the Bank of Canada to continue to decline rates. Prior to recent announcements, we were expecting policy rate as low as 2% by the end of next year. But given the transfer that was also announced by the federal government, it could lead to upwardly revise a bit. We'll see if it will be implemented. But clearly as you can see on that chart, while Bank of Canada is declining rates, 10 year rate is increasing and is essentially in its last two years average at this point. So not that much relief for long term rates. So that's something to keep in mind. But for that reason, perhaps it's another reason for the Canada to try to push down those rates by having short term rates very low. So that's our expectation at this time, OK.
Matthieu, the government has announced recently an additional break on population growth for the next three years. What are the implications of this new announcement on the real estate market?
We talked about it very often over the past few months. Housing shortage is still very acute in Canada. We see that in the rental market with rent still increasing at a tepid pace. Same thing for first time home buyers. It's where affordability is still a problem. So I think it's the good decision to calm down population growth. In fact, with the recent announcement about the declining non permanent resident to 5% of population over a 2 year. Reducing permanent resident temporarily, that will lead for— when you look at the five year period, when we look in 2028, the pace for the next 5 years will be similar to what we had prior to the pandemic level, much more sustainable and much more in line with our capacity to welcome. So, I think it's a good decision at this point given housing shortage. And we have to keep in mind newcomers have problems to integrate the labour market in the current context. So let's fix that situation and get back to normal after this three-year period of slow growth and we will be able to get back to the model we had that was benefiting the Canadian economy prior to the pandemic.
So finally good news. Thank you, Matthieu for your very interesting comments. Let's now discuss with Andrée, hello Andrée. In the context of the anticipated drop of the interest rate by the end of this year and obviously in 2025, should we go with a fixed rate or variable rate for our mortgage?
Very good questions Simon and indeed very relevant. The choice between a fixed rate and a variable rate for a mortgage depends on several factors, especially in the context of falling rates. Our risk tolerance, financial situation and short and mid economic outlook are key, you know, considerations to look at. We must first understand the bearish rate context, however, When the Bank of Canada lowers its prime rate, financial institutions typically adjust, you know, their mortgage rates in response to that downsize. Variable rates will generally follow primary fluctuations and become particularly advantageous in the short term. Fixed rates, although often higher than variable rates at the time of subscription, offer protection against potential future increases. We must however remember that they usually follow the interest rate on long term bonds and not the Bank of Canada prime rate. Therefore, a quarter point drop in the prime rate does not mean that fixed rate will fall by the same amount.
OK. We must therefore understand this context carefully before making our decision. You're right, Andrée. Many people assume that when there's a drop in the prime rate, all rates fluctuate in the same way. However, as we have just seen, that isn't the case since different rates are influenced by different factors. With that in mind, Andrée, what are the advantages of one or the other?
Yeah. If we look first, you know, at the variable rate, you should consider that rate if you believe that interest rates will continue to decline or stay low for an extended period of time. You can also choose the variable rate if you're comfortable with some level of risk and can handle or afford, you know, potential payment increases if rates rise. Also if you want to benefit from lower penalties, if you decide to pay off your mortgage early or switch lenders. Also, some variable rates loans offer the option to switch to a fixed rate if rates increase. On the other hand, you should consider, you know, a fixed rate if you prefer stability and want to avoid uncertainty, if you think rates might rise in the midterm and again, if your budget cannot accommodate sudden increases in monthly payments.
So once again, Andrée, the choice does not automatically go towards one or the other. Even if we are in the context of falling rates. As you mentioned, we must make sure to take other elements into account in our decision. You are very right Simon. And we must also not forget that some lenders offer mixed rate mortgages, you know, part fixed, part variables. So this approach allows you to balance the advantages of both options and reducing risk while still benefiting partially from falling rates. So in summary, you know in a falling rate environment, a variable rate may seem more advantageous in the short term, but it remains a bet on future rate trends. If you're comfortable with some uncertainty, a variable rate could maximize your savings. However, if peace of mind is your priority, a fixed rate is the safer choice. It all depends like usual on your financial profile and financial goals. To help you in your choice as usual, do not hesitate to consider or consult a mortgage specialist to assess your personal situation and provide you the right advice for that choice.
Thank you Andrée for sharing your insights. As you suggested, having a discussion with a mortgage specialist will help make the right decision. There's no point about that. So thank you all for watching and join us again very soon for our next edition of Property Perspective.
5 • 4 • 3 Market Outlook
5 minutes, 4 graphs, 3 key takeaways! Discover a fresh focused quarterly review of markets, the economy and investments with expert Louis Lajoie from our CIO Office.
Hello everyone. Today, June 5, we're going to take as usual just a few minutes to look back on what turned out to be quite a spectacular quarter and then look ahead and try to shed some light on what may lie ahead, always with a good dose of humility given prevailing uncertainties.
What made last quarter so spectacular was obviously the bombshell tariff announcement of April 2, which sent U.S. equity markets falling by about just 10% in just two days as recession risks were actually doubling, which was definitely a non-sustainable situation, which effectively lead, just a week later, to a 90-day pause and a substantial rebound. This was actually the third best day for U.S. equity markets in the last 6 decades. But behind that there was an escalation in tariffs with China, which was equally unsustainable and also lead ultimately to a 90-day pause this time in May, which brings us to today with recession risks still higher than usual but somewhat stabilizing as equity markets have recouped most of their losses.
When we look at what this all means for a globally diversified portfolio in Canadian dollars, this all means that we are essentially back to where we were last February. That is marginally positive, somewhere between 0% and 5% depending on your risk profiles, thanks to equity markets outside of the U.S. which continue to do better this the last few months, notably in Canada, but also elsewhere overseas. So, a lot of volatility, but ultimately not too much damage down the road. This was largely the expectations as we entered the year and that remains our expectations as we look forward, although there is obviously still potential for surprises. Specifically, what we'll be looking at is the actual impact on the economy of all that has happened since the start of the year, because for now, the impact is mostly being felt in sentiment surveys, for instance, consumer sentiment, which is according to some surveys, near its weakest in the last 35 years, which is quite a contrast with the actual state, the concrete data of where the economy is with things like inflation or the unemployment rate, which if you look at the most recent data was anything but dramatic. Now, there are some pockets of weaknesses here and there. We've got to be careful, but overall, nothing overly dramatic.
For as long as fluctuations in tariffs remain limited going forward and the U.S. administration remains focused on reaching so-called trade deals – and that is in their interest –, odds are that the reconnection between sentiment and reality will happen at a level not overly problematic for the economy and not overly problematic for equity markets accordingly, where we have seen some sort of the same trend with sentiment surveys from investors actually showing the most pessimism in the last 35 years. Ironically, this is typically a sign that the worst is actually already behind us. Now as in any rule, there's always exceptions. So, we've got to be careful here. Equities have rebounded already quite a bit as we've talked about just a few minutes ago. But again, it does suggest that bearing a global recession – and we don't foresee one for now –, odds are that the path of least resistance for equities will actually remain upward for the remainder of the year.
Three takeaways for now. Again, more fear than harm, so far. We've seen markets react sharply to these tariff announcements, with initially consumers, businesses, investors, sentiment surveys plunging. That sent a strong signal to Washington, which effectively changed its tone, a change in tone that remains fragile, much like the economy and it also remains fragile. The coming months will be very revealing on both fronts. We should get more precision as to all the parameters of their economic agenda and the scale, the amplitude of the economic slowdown that will result from these policy changes. Stay tuned, but this promises to be a volatile summer period. But again, bearing a global recession, which we don't foresee, odds are that equities will remain well footed, especially outside of the U.S., which is a trend that we see ongoing for the remainder of the year.
Thank you for listening. Have a great summer everyone, and we will talk again in September.
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