Thank you for joining us today at SM Financial Group.
We want
to provide you with current information related to your finances. On
that note, we're pleased to be able to have Beijing Lynn join us from
Russell Investments.
He's going to present an economic and
market update for the first quarter of 2025.
He is a senior
investment strategist and head of Canadian strategy for Russell
Investments.
Further ado, I will introduce Beicheng.
Thank you so much, Graeme and good morning.
Good afternoon,
everyone.
It's a pleasure to be here. So as Graeme said, I
really want just to take some time today to highlight some
observations from the first quarter and then also provide a bit of an
overview and outlook on some of our views for the rest of this year
and.
Of course, because this year has been so volatile, things
can change at any time without advance notice.
So let's dive
right in.
So first of all, this is a standard disclosure slide
that my compliance team says I have to show you.
So I've shown
it to you.
But now let's talk into first of all, some of what we
saw in terms of the first quarter trends. And I think if you look at
the first quarter performance data, what really stood out to me was
that in some sense, first quarter was a bit of a.
Reversal of
the patterns we had seen in 2024, which is that if you think about
what were the top performing sectors, what were the top performing
asset classes in 2024?
A lot of those sectors actually tended to
underperform in 2025. In the first quarter. So for example, 2024,
everyone knows that a big part of the story was the magnificent 7.
Those large mega cap tech companies like NVIDIA Tesla, they drove a
significant port.
Of the US S&P 500 returns last year, but
in the first quarter those large mega cap tech companies actually
underperformed some of the rest of the companies in the S&P 500
index.
Similarly, if we think about the performance of U.S.
stocks relative to non-us stocks, U.S. stocks in the first quarter of
2025 actually underperformed their non-us peers with Canadian stocks
and European stocks both generally doing better than U.S. stocks in
the first quarter of 20.
25 and from our perspective at Russell
Investments, we think that this really showcases the need and
importance of diversification.
I know it can be tempting
sometimes to just really think about what's been the the most.
Winners. But if you look at the longer run history of the financial
markets generally, what you'll see is that the top performing asset
class in any given year, it can change from year to year.
And
that's why we continue to think diversification is so critical.
The next topic I want to talk about is sort of a starting point and
before we got into this period of trade policy uncertainty, we had a
starting point that was somewhat different for the US relative to
Canada.
So in the US, before we got to this period of trade
policy uncertainty, the economic fundamentals were generally looking
pretty good.
The labor market was quite healthy.
The
unemployment rate was relatively low.
And U.S. companies
generated good profits.
In the fourth quarter of 2025, S&P
500 companies generated roughly 17% year over year earnings growth,
about double the longer term average.
So the US was
demonstrating resilience from an economic perspective.
In
Canada, though, we weren't as lucky. The Canadian unemployment rate
rose at a much sharper pace than the US unemployment rate. On this
chart, you can see the Canadian unemployment rate in blue and the US
unemployment rate in orange.
And because.
The community
unemployment rate has gone up so quickly and because when you look at
the per capita, so adjusted for population growth measures of Canadian
economic activity because those have been also been quite weak, the
Bank of Canada has had to cut rates far more aggressively than
the.
US Federal Reserve, the Bank of Canada has already cut
rates cumulatively by about 2 1/4% and we think that more rate cuts
might be in store.
We see that inflation has trended down in
both Canada and.
And the US, though that is sometimes uneven
rate.
So that's the starting point of where the economy stands
today.
But then we saw a period of volatility in the markets,
particularly around April as we got more details about some of these
tariff announcements and of course the situation is dynamic.
The
situation is fluid and I know it can be tempting sometimes when you
see large market drawdowns, you might think to yourself well, is this
a time to build a cash?
From our perspective at Russell
Investments, though, it's very, very important to stay invested,
particularly during those large drawdown episodes. And during those
large drawdown episodes, it might actually be an ideal time to
rebalance your portfolio and take advantage of some of the reduction
in stock prices in order.
To enter at a more attractive entry
point. This chart basically shows you what historically has happened
to the S&P 500 index. After pullbacks of at least.
15% and
remember this year we did see year to date, the S&P 500 year to
date through early April was down about 14 to 15%.
And generally
speaking, you can see that the markets actually tend to do quite well
after a large drawdown. And so I think this is the never reminder that
during the times when everyone else is panicking about the markets,
this is precisely the time when you want to have.
That longer
term orientation focus on staying disciplined and staying invested and
over the long term, that can be.
Benefit.
This document
comes from our economic and market review, which is publicly available
on our Russell Investments website.
I'm not going to go through
all the slides here, but I did want to take this opportunity to
highlight some important exhibits from this deck.
This slide I
think is another useful slide because when people talk about the
financial markets, there's a tendency to think about companies in the
US.
But it's important to remember that U.S. companies only
represent about 65% of the global market cap.
The rest is non-us
companies.
And that's one of the reasons why we think it's
important to have really a geographically balanced portfolio instead
of just concentrating your investment in anyone particular country or
region.
All right, so now that I've talked a little bit about
asset class performance during the first quarter, I want to spend the
rest of this conversation. Rest of this conversation talking about our
outlook and of course the outlook.
I would.
I would
characterize it as one that's highly uncertain.
This is because
we know that there have been a lot of changes to the policies both in
the US and Canada, especially on the US side of things. At the
beginning of the year.
We laid out four key watch points that
investors needed to be aware of in terms of us.
Administration
policies. Those are related to tariffs, immigration, deregulation and
fiscal policy. And on balance, two of these policies, the 1st 2
tariffs and immigration have the potential to weigh on economic
activity, whereas the remaining two tend to be a little bit more
positive for markets what we've seen.
So far is that the
administration has moved harder and faster than what we and a lot of
other economists and forecasters had been expecting with respect to
trade policy.
And because of the higher than expected tariff
rate, we are citing our US recession risk.
We are setting it at
above average level.
So in a typical year, the normal recession
probability in the US is about 15 to 20%.
We now see recession
recession risks in the US as being just under a coin toss.
We
see it as 40% chance of the US economy ticking into a recession
between now and a year from now.
Even though the US economy has
started from this point of resilience, the tariff policy could have a
drag on economic growth, and that increases the likelihood that the US
economy might tip into recession for the Canadian economy because it's
starting from a point of fragility, we actually think.
That the
Canadian economy is even more vulnerable to an economic slowdown than
the US economy in terms of Europe, 2025 has been more encouraging than
2024.
In 2024, parts of Europe entered a technical
recession.
But in 2025, European economic growth seems to be
stabilizing and more people seem to be borrowing and lending money.
And generally speaking, that's good for economic growth.
Nevertheless, headwinds still remain, particularly as the Europe and
US try to negotiate trade deals.
We need to watch closely
whether some of these reciprocal tariffs that are currently under
pause get eliminated, or if they get reinstated after the 90 day
period expires.
And finally, with respect to China, the Chinese
Government has continued.
Set a GDP growth target of about
5%.
It's important to remember though, that with each passing
year, it gets harder and harder to hit that 5% growth target because
the hurdle is higher, meaning that we continue to expect the Chinese
Government will need to do more stimulus in order to stimulate the
economy we Don.
Necessarily expect that the stimulus will come
all at once, but we do expect that they will continue to do
incremental measures to bolster economic activity in that
region.
So overall, the economic situation is one that's highly
uncertain.
But to some extent, we've already seen some of that
pessimism get baked into the markets. When we look at investor
sentiment, we at Russell Investments have a proprietary measure that
we can use to track how other investors are feeling about the markets.
That proprietary measure reached a 90.
8th percentile Extreme in
April 2025.
What that tells us is that as of April 8th, 2025,
investors became more panicked than they ever were in 98% of the times
throughout history.
Now for us, that's actually an encouraging
signal because generally speaking after periods of significant
investor panic, what we see is that equity markets generally tend to
do pretty well.
You can sometimes even see double digit returns
in the year ahead following one of those panic extremes.
So we
sort of have this offset where, yes, the cyclical risks are
elevated.
Yes, the risk of recession is above average. But on
the other hand, we're also seeing sentiment that is much more
pessimistic than normal.
And that's an encouraging offset to
those elevated macroeconomic risks. Now in terms of our tactical
positioning generally our philosophy at Russell Investments is that
unless we see signs of a significant dislocation in the markets,
unless we see signs of an unsustainable extreme, generally speaking,
we think investors would.
Be better served by sticking close to
that strategic asset allocation instead, particularly during times of
heightened uncertainty, and to give another example.
We
mentioned earlier that we thought the Canadian economy might be more
vulnerable.
The US economy to an economic slowdown.
But
when you look at the numbers, it might be a bit fascinating to hear
that the S&P TSX Composite Index, the Canadian Benchmark Stock
Index, is only down about 3 to 4% year to date through April, whereas
the US stock Index, the S&P.
500 is down about 14 to 15%
over the same time period and I think this is a story where the
starting point matters. The starting point evaluation from our
perspective at Russell Investments, we thought that us.
Were a
little bit more expensively priced than non-us equities.
And so,
even though Canadian equities might face higher cyclical risks, you
have the starting point where the valuations are less expensive. And I
think that's one of the reasons why we've been seeing the Canadian
stock market do a little bit better than the US stock market this
year.
So overall, we tend to be pretty neutral at the moment,
across geographies and across sectors in terms of fixed income, we
continue to think that government bonds offer incredible
diversification.
And are an important part of the portfolio over
a long time horizon.
Another thing I wanted to talk about is
real assets and I know when a lot of people think about the stock
market, they tend to focus on on traditional stocks. But we actually
think that listed infrastructure assets, which are basically companies
that that have infrastructure characteristics, but they.
Still
traded on the Stock Exchange.
We think that this particular
asset class can be.
Pretty compelling and the reason for that is
because if you think about the long term, we as a society need more
infrastructure.
We need more roads, we need more bridges.
We need more data centers.
We need a lot of new energy
pipelines.
These are all examples of the different type of
infrastructure projects that we as a society need to keep on building,
and infrastructure tends to be rather defensive of an asset class. If
you think about the global equity markets this year, the MSCI all
Country World Index was down.
Double digits.
Digits, but
during the same time period, the S&P Global Infrastructure Index
was relatively flat.
And so it just speaks to how defensive of
an asset class infrastructure can be.
Where on the one hand, if
every markets are going up, you get to keep most of the upside. But
when equity markets are going down, you actually get quite a bit of
protection on the downside.
So from that perspective, we think
that an allocation to infrastructure can be a pretty powerful tool and
can enhance your portfolio.
So all that is to say that if we
think about what's to come in the coming year, I think this trend of
volatility unfortunately might persist.
And the reason I say
that is because we've certainly seen a lot of changes in the different
announcements coming out of the US government.
We know that
there's a lot of different events that are coming up this year.
We have elections in Canada, elections in Australia and so we continue
to find ourselves in this very dynamic, very volatile environment
where sometimes you look at your portfolio, you might see your
portfol.
U another day you look at your portfolio, you might see
your portfolio is down. But for us what we think is the most important
thing is to really have a longer term focus to be able to look through
the noise because we think if you have that longer.
Term
orientation.
Generally speaking, you would be better positioned
than if you focus on the short term noise.
So stay
disciplined.
Don't panic.
That, to us, is the most
important thing for investors to be able to do.
And with that,
I'll pass it back to you, Graham.
Thank you very much.
Yeah, we in our portfolios, we do have an
alternative allocation.
We do have infrastructure in it.
Fantastic long term asset class, great income generator, good for
retirement portfolios, so definitely onside with that. We actually
have an allocation to gold.
We have an ETF that tracks the gold
price as well.
So those are both fantastic things currently
we.
Are a bit underweight our long term equity allocation of it
over in cash and bonds.
Again, just a defensive strategy that
was set up before we even came into 2025 and looking for good
opportunity to get back to the the long term target. Anyway that was
fantastic.
Thank you very much and I look forward to.
This
is Russell.
Investments are one of the resources that we have
and I always look forward to reading their quarterly economic and
market updates.
Anyways, thank you very much.
Thanks
everyone for joining us.
Feel free to reach out with any
questions.
Have a great day.
There we go.
Yeah, that
was good.
Nathan Nicole. Yeah. Yeah, yeah, yeah.
Thanks again for inviting me, Graham.
National Bank Financial - Wealth Management (NBFWM) is a division of National Bank Financial Inc. (NBF), as well as a trademark owned by National Bank of Canada (NBC) that is used under license by NBF. NBF is a member of the Canadian Investment Regulatory Organization (CIRO) and the Canadian Investor Protection Fund (CIPF), and is a wholly-owned subsidiary of NBC, a public company listed on the Toronto Stock Exchange (TSX: NA). The information contained herein is obtained from sources we believe to be reliable, but are not guaranteed by us and may be incomplete. The opinions expressed are based upon our analysis and interpretation of this information and are not to be construed as a solicitation or offer to buy or sell securities. The securities or sectors mentioned herein are not suitable for all types of investors. Please consult your Wealth Advisor to verify whether the securities or sectors suit your investor's profile as well as to obtain complete information, including the main risk factors, regarding those securities or sectors.
Thank you for joining us today. I have to start with a quick disclaimer, and then we will get into our discussion. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Information relating to investment approaches or individual investments should not be construed as advice or endorsement. Listeners should seek professional advice for their situation. This podcast is sponsored in part by McKenzie Investments. Now, on to the presentation.
Once again, thank you very much for joining us at SM Financial
Group. One of the things that we endeavor to do is provide information
that our clients are seeking. One of the items that we talk about
regularly in our meetings is estate planning, and I think that
understanding the role of an executor is key to that, whether you are
choosing an executor for your own estate or whether you are an
executor for someone else. So, I'm really pleased today to have Alyssa
Maita join us. She is a tax and estate planning specialist, and I'm
going to introduce her. Alyssa, could you tell us a bit about
yourself?
Hi Graham, thank you so much for having me
today. My name is Alyssa Maita. I'm the Director of Tax and Estate for
Mackenzie Investments for Western Canada, so I cover BC, Alberta, and
Saskatchewan. I've been with Mackenzie for just over a year now. Prior
to that, I was in a similar role at a national trust company, and
before that, I was in private practice for a number of years as an
estate planning and probate lawyer. I absolutely love talking about
estate planning, so thank you so much for having me here.
When I started my career, it was in estate litigation, so I've seen a number of reasons why estates end up in litigation. A big part of that is not choosing the appropriate executor, not choosing the person you would like to speak for you once you've passed away. I think we need to spend a lot more time talking about who an individual is appointing. I know when I switch to the solicitor side and I would have meetings with clients on who they would like to appoint as executor, it's often a quick discussion, right? We're asking who do you fully trust, who is financially savvy, but we don't think about the other things like who has the time to act. A lot of the tasks with simple estate administration involve a lot of patience and a lot of time. You might think you're choosing the appropriate person because they might have a business, for example, but that might not be the appropriate choice. I'm sure we'll do a deep dive into the tasks that are involved with the estate administration process and who you should be appointing, but it's definitely a discussion that needs to happen.
That sounds good, so let's dive right into it. What exactly is an executor? An executor is a person, or it could be multiple individuals, and in some cases, it's an entity like a trust company, that's appointed to carry out the terms of the will. It's important to keep in mind that an executor has no rights during the will maker's lifetime. We know about Powers of Attorney, which act when an individual is alive but typically incapable. The executor steps into play once the individual has passed away and fulfills any distribution in accordance with the terms of the will.
You often see the term executor and trustee. If an individual doesn't appoint a specific trustee for testamentary trusts set out in the will, then it's often the executor who will step up and take that role. It's important to keep in mind that an executor has no responsibility for assets that bypass the estate. Wherever you have a beneficiary designation on your registered plans or life insurance, those assets fall outside of the estate, so the executor wouldn't have any responsibility for those assets. In another situation where we have joint tenants with the right of survivorship, that asset is also going to bypass the estate and fall to the survivor, so the executor would have no responsibility for that either.
I often get asked how many executors should be appointed. Should I appoint one person, two people, or all three of my kids? It really depends on the situation. Remember, whenever you're appointing multiple executors, they're acting jointly and must act unanimously. There can be benefits to that, like checking and balance and having each other's support.
So, there are benefits, but there are also disadvantages. All decisions must be made together, so if they can't agree, we're essentially holding up the estate. I've seen a lot of clients who have three kids put in a majority rules provision, so if two of the three agree, then that's the decision that goes. That can work, but in a lot of cases, if two of the three siblings get along really well, they could potentially bully the third one. So, you must be careful and really consider who you're appointing. Often, it's best to just appoint one person but then have alternate names in case that person is unable or unwilling to act. I would say at least have two backups named, just in case the person is sick, at a point in their life where they're unable to take on that responsibility, or if they predecease you. If they simply don't want to act for whatever reason, it will be really important to have backups named.
Oftentimes, we also include trusts in the will, and a lot of those
trusts might be lifetime trusts. So, if we set up a fully
discretionary trust for an individual with a disability and that trust
is to last the duration of their life, that's a long responsibility
for a trustee to act. If we haven't named a specific trustee, we know
that responsibility will fall to the executor. So, you really want to
think about who you're appointing.
Some clients will
choose to appoint a lawyer or an accountant. The benefit of this is
that they are well-versed in your affairs, so it can be a good choice.
However, if that lawyer or accountant is the same age as you, it might
not be a good choice because they could predecease you or get sick.
You really want to be careful with that. If you appoint a younger
lawyer or younger accountant, and they have a really busy practice,
your estate might get put on the back burner. So, there are a lot of
options here, but you really want to think about who you're appointing.
A trust company can be a great option. Trust companies have
dedicated trust officers who are often lawyers, and this is their
whole task—estate administration. They can do a really good job of
administering the estate, and you can work with them. They require
clauses to be put into the will, but the client can say, "I want
my assets to stay with my adviser. Can we include language in the will
to provide for that?" And you're able to do that. You're just
working with a trust company and the lawyer to craft that language.
So, there are really good options out there; you just need to think
about what the best fit for your situation is.
I've seen
a lot of clients do a joint appointment where they'll appoint one
child jointly with the trust company. With that, the trust company is
going to take on all of the work, handling the difficult part of the
administration. However, because it's a joint appointment with a
child, that child has to agree to all decisions that are made. This
can be a really good working relationship.
Yeah, that's fantastic. If anyone has questions about the trust
services offered by National Trust, I'd be happy to make the
introduction.
Now, Alyssa, what are some of the key
duties of an executor or trustee?
Yeah, so an executor typically has 25 to 30 tasks in a simple estate administration, so there's a lot involved. One of the first tasks is to arrange the service and disposition of the deceased and obtain a death certificate. The executor is going to have to obtain multiple copies of the death certificate because they have to provide it to a number of parties, such as financial institutions, lawyers, and accountants. They will need to get multiple copies of those, and typically, your lawyer can notarize and make additional copies if necessary.
As I mentioned, one of the first tasks is the disposition of the body, and that's often the most difficult task. If you think about it, if you pass away and your children are appointed as executors, they now have to plan for your funeral, and they may have no idea what you would have wanted. It can be really hard on them, so I think it's important to spend time thinking about this and talking about it. You have a few options. You can let your executor know exactly what your wishes are through a verbal conversation.
A lot of clients don't feel comfortable going that route. You are able to include language in the will, but remember, a lawyer is not going to put in paragraphs of what you would have wanted. They can put in a simple line or two saying that you wish to be buried or cremated, or that you want a celebration of life. You can also do what's called a letter of wishes, where you go into detail about what your wishes are and include it with a copy of your will. Pre-planned funerals are becoming more and more popular, and it really takes the burden off of the executor because everything is already arranged. So, that's something you might want to think about.
A lot of clients will put in what their wishes are in that letter and make sure that their kids have a copy of it or know where they can find that information. So, it's something to think about. The next thing is, of course, locating the original will. You would think that this is going to be a simple task, but it's not always the case. You want to let your kids know who drafted your will and where you're storing the original. If they can't find the original will, we really can't do much. I'm sure we'll talk more about the probate process, but essentially, to get that authority from the court, you need to submit the original will. So, it's really important that your kids know where it's being located, whether it's at the lawyer's office, in a fireproof safe in your home, or in your safety deposit box. Make them aware that they should have all of your information, such as your personal information, date of birth, and the information of all the beneficiaries, including where they can be located. Updating addresses and keeping an inventory of that information is crucial. I think one of the best things an executor can do is establish a relationship with the financial advisor. That way, if anything were to happen to the client, the kids can go to the advisor and start the probate process. They can get a lot of information regarding the client's assets directly from the advisor, which is huge.
As I mentioned, we have an executor checklist. I would suggest having a meeting between the advisor and the executor to go through that checklist together. Make sure that your executor is willing and able to act and is aware of what's involved in the estate administration process.
If you've been divorced or separated, it's really important that your executor can retrieve a copy of that separation agreement and any income tax returns. If you're in ongoing litigation, such as a car accident, and there's an ongoing civil case, your executor will need to continue with that case after your passing to maximize your estate value. They will need access to that paperwork, so it's really important to keep your executor informed.
So, that's really important. I know a lot of clients will have those documents drawn up and then never make any mention of it to their executor or their kids. That's probably the worst thing you can do. We can't even apply for probate or do any estate administration without having that original will. So, it's really important that you're keeping your kids up to date on what you're doing. You don't need to show them the contents of the will, but you do need to let them know where it's being stored.
Another thing that I think is really important is keeping an asset inventory. With the probate process, you're going to have to include the estate value in the application. If executors or children have no idea what their parents owned, it can be really difficult. A lot of times, the lawyer is sitting and writing to every financial institution to determine if the deceased had assets with them, and this really just prolongs and delays the estate administration process. So, I think keeping an asset inventory is crucial. You don't have to put account numbers or balances, but basically saying these are the financial institutions where I'm holding assets. If you sell an asset, just update that inventory and make it a part of your plan every year to update it.
Digital assets are becoming more and more popular and have value. Keeping a record of digital assets like loyalty points, crypto, websites, blogs, and photos is important. Your executor needs to be able to access them. Crypto that you can't access is essentially crypto that you don't have, so it's really important to have recordkeeping of how those assets can be accessed.
Safeguarding assets is another big step that an executor has to take. This includes storing and insuring any valuable items, changing passwords, redirecting mail, closing any necessary accounts, and arranging for interim payments until they have full authority to act and liquidate those assets.
Right. So, storing and insuring any valuable items, including expensive artwork, changing any passwords, redirecting mail, and closing any necessary accounts are essential tasks. Additionally, arranging for interim payments until they have full authority to act and liquidate those assets is important.
I get a lot of questions about the timeline. How long does the executor have? You might have heard the term "executor's year," meaning in case law, an executor has basically a year to do what they need to do before the beneficiaries can start requesting updates. Many clients are under the impression that within a year, the estate will be fully administered, and assets distributed, but that's not always the case. In many jurisdictions where the courts are backed up, it can take a long time to even obtain probate. Typically, you're looking at 18 to 24 months for a simple estate administration.
Having said that, after a year, the beneficiaries can start asking for more information and see why things are held up or taking longer. You have an obligation and a fiduciary duty to provide them with that information. Setting expectations for the timeline is crucial. We have a number of aging clients, and we're always processing estates every year. Keeping in mind the realistic timeline is essential for everyone.
You want to set that timeline straight from the beginning, keeping them informed but realistic that it could take a while, and explaining the reasons why. Lastly, executors also need to ensure they're maintaining a record of every financial transaction that takes place within the estate. This is very important.
They must pay off all the deceased's debts and estate debts, advertise for creditors, allow them a certain amount of time to come forward, and file any estate tax returns. If there's a US component, ensure compliance with those regulations. They need to obtain a clearance certificate from the CRA, which confirms all debts and liabilities have been paid, allowing them to distribute the estate.
At that point, residuary beneficiaries in the estate are expected to receive a passing of accounts, showing every financial transaction that has taken place. They can review it and get independent legal advice.
If they're comfortable with it, they essentially sign off and then at that point, they'll sign a receipt and release and they'll get whatever they're entitled to from the estate. So, that's the high level what an executor's responsibilities are. Fantastic. Now, a term we hear a lot about when we're talking about estates is probate. Can you tell us exactly what it is and how that process works? Yeah, absolutely. So, you've heard me mention probate a few times, but it's essentially the process where the courts are going to review the will, ensure that it's valid, and then they're going to grant the executor with a certificate which allows the executor to be able to act. Right. So most financial institutions are going to require probate, and I'll tell you why. Let's say I've passed away and I've appointed my sister as the executor. She takes the will to the bank and says, here's my sister's will, here's her death certificate. I need all the money so that I can distribute it. The bank's going to say, well, we don't know if this will be valid and we don't know if you are who you say you are. So, that's why probate exists. It's so that the court can provide the executor with paperwork so that these financial institutions and lawyers are able to transfer property without an issue, without having to worry about the liability. The problem with the probate process is that the courts levy a fee, so in each province, this is going to look different. Here in Alberta, we are very lucky it's a flat fee of $525. When I was in private practice, I was in Ontario. The fees there are 1.5%, so a lot of times when we're doing planning, we're trying to minimize that fee. But here in Alberta, you know, we're lucky we don't have to worry about it. As far as that probate application goes, it's a lawyer's responsibility to do that so the executor isn't expected to take on that application process. The expectation is that they retain a lawyer, and the lawyer completes that application. Sometimes an executor will choose to take it on themselves to help save the estate some costs. I've seen a lot of issues with that, right. Any little mistake you make, the courts are often going to reject the application, so you're wasting a lot of time if you're not having a lawyer complete that paperwork.
The forms are not straightforward to fill out, so like I said, a minor mistake can cause that application to be sent back and now you're just delaying the estate administration. So, I would say, hire a lawyer and get that done as soon as possible. Fantastic. So once all the debts are paid, once the taxes are paid to CRA, what's the next step? Yeah, so once the debts are paid, all taxes have been paid, then you basically apply to CRA to get what's called the clearance certificate. Once you have that clearance certificate, you're ready to distribute the estate. Specific gifts and cash legacies are paid out first, and then you'll have this residue clause where it's typically divided in percentages, and you're able to give that money to the beneficiaries. Like I said, you will want the beneficiaries to sign a release form, and that release form says they've reviewed the estate accounting, they're okay with everything and now they're releasing the executor from any liability. Once they've signed that form, then you can go ahead and distribute those assets to the beneficiaries.
It is important though that the executor keeps a record of their expenses as well, right? So, mileage, if they've paid costs for photocopying, postage, things like that, you want to keep detailed records of all of that so that you're able to get reimbursed. That sounds good. Now, the executor and trustees do a lot of work. What is their compensation? Do they get paid? What are the rules around that? Yeah, for sure. So, executors are entitled to receive reimbursement for any appropriate expenses that they've had, and they use the estate funds to reimburse themselves. They are also entitled to compensation for the time and effort during their estate administration. A client can specify that compensation amount in their will. Some clients will choose to put a flat fee; some clients will choose to put a percentage in their will. As far as the executor's compensation, I would always advise that the flat fee is a little bit risky, right? Because you don't know what your estate size is going to be at the end of the day. If you put a really small flat fee, the executor might choose not to act; they might not think it's worth their time. If you put a high flat fee, and then your estate ends up shrinking just because you had a lot of costs during end-of-life care and things like that, you could be leaving them a really large amount. So, percentage is usually safer. I would say though that most wills are silent on the executor's compensation, and then it's sort of the provincial rules that kick in to determine how much the executor is able to take. That range is typically 2 to 5%. So, no executor should be getting more than 5% of the gross estate size. As far as between that 2 to 5%, how do we determine the appropriate percentage? It's really going to depend on a number of factors, right? So, what is the size of the estate? What was the complexity of the work involved? How much skill was required to administer the estate? How much time was spent administering the estate? I'll give you an example. If we had a simple situation where we have investments and a house that just had to be sold, it would be really hard to justify that 5%. But if you have, let's say, 30 beneficiaries and they're all over the world and there was business involved, you're probably going to look at being entitled to a higher percentage on that scale. So it's just going to depend.
Not all executors take compensation. So even if you provide for that in your will, you know, if you're appointing a child, they might say, "You know, I don't want to take the compensation. I'm happy to do it." The other thing is, it's taxable income to the executor, so if they take compensation, it's taxable income to them. So, it might not be worth it, and they might just choose not to take it. Right. Sounds good. So, what do you think people should consider when they're choosing their executor? Yeah, so I think we've mentioned the importance of choosing the right executor, but you're looking at several things, right? So, someone with ample time. A lot of times when I was in private practice, I would have a client say, "I have a son and he's running a really great business, he's very financially savvy, super successful," and then I would say, "Does he have a family?" And it turns out that, you know, they have three kids and he's really busy. That might not be the person to appoint, right? Although he's financially savvy and he might be well-versed in your financial affairs, if he doesn't have time to act, it's going to be difficult. So, you want to do that. Someone who's willing to act. A lot of times clients won't make mention to their kids that they've appointed them. That's the worst thing you can do. You want to check with your executor and make sure that they're going to be agreeable to act. Someone who's accessible, right? So typically, we say you should be appointing an executor who is residing in the same province as you just to make things easier. Someone who has patience, right? So oftentimes, you're sitting on the phone with CRA for two hours, and it can get really tiring and frustrating. So, you want to appoint someone who's going to be willing to do that and someone who's patient. Of course, someone who has integrity, right? They're acting on your behalf once you've passed away, so you want them to act the same way that you would. Someone who's objective. You might have beneficiaries that disagree, so you need to appoint someone who is not going to side with one of the beneficiaries. Someone who has good judgment, and then of course being financially savvy is important as well. And someone who's well-versed in your affairs is going to be important.
The one thing that I want you to keep in mind too is you want to be careful about appointing a non-resident executor. So, you don't want to be appointing someone in the US because the CRA could deem that your estate might be considered a US estate and there could be tax implications there. So, you should be appointing someone who's in Canada. If you have a child that's sort of in and out of the country, right? So maybe they're working in the US, but there's a good chance that they're going to come back, maybe you appoint them, but then ensure that you have backups appointed in case they are non-residents. So, for the most part, I would say spouses appoint each other first, and then after that, it really depends. If your kids are able and willing to act, and it's a good choice, then you would appoint your kids typically. But have a conversation with them. If they're not agreeable to do it, or they don't want to do it, look at other options like a trust company. Perfect. So, let's wrap it up here. So, we've covered the role of the executor, duties, responsibilities, how to choose the right person, and use us as a resource. We've got some great checklists. We're impartial, we're not the beneficiary, and we'd be happy to walk you through, just be a sounding board when you're going through this process. So, thanks for joining us. Alyssa, thank you so much for having me. And just a quick note here, if you're going to take anything out of this podcast, a couple of things: if you have your estate planning done, go back, review it, see who you've appointed as executor, decide if it's the right choice, and if you haven't had a conversation with the person you've appointed, I think it's a good time to ask them. And then the second thing is introducing your executor to [Graham]. I think that's a good option. They're able to get to know each other and then your executor knows that they have support in case anything happens to you. That's fantastic. So as our clients know, reviewing the estate and the will—or whether they have a will—is one of the items on our annual review agenda. So, it's not just sitting there for us to check; it's something that I think everyone should really put some serious thought into. And again, we're happy to help you out in any way we can. So once again, thank you very much, Alyssa, and if anyone has questions, feel free to reach out to us. Have a great day. Thank you.
National Bank Financial - Wealth Management (NBFWM) is a division of National Bank Financial Inc. (NBF), as well as a trademark owned by National Bank of Canada (NBC) that is used under license by NBF. NBF is a member of the Canadian Investment Regulatory Organization (CIRO) and the Canadian Investor Protection Fund (CIPF), and is a wholly-owned subsidiary of NBC, a public company listed on the Toronto Stock Exchange (TSX: NA). The information contained herein is obtained from sources we believe to be reliable, but are not guaranteed by us and may be incomplete. The opinions expressed are based upon our analysis and interpretation of this information and are not to be construed as a solicitation or offer to buy or sell securities. The securities or sectors mentioned herein are not suitable for all types of investors. Please consult your Wealth Advisor to verify whether the securities or sectors suit your investor's profile as well as to obtain complete information, including the main risk factors, regarding those securities or sectors.
Thank you for joining us today. I'm going to talk to you about the investment management process that we use at SM Financial National Bank Financial. This is one of the services that we provide to our clients: Investment Management. We are also very involved in financial planning, estate planning, retirement, and education planning as well. But today, we're going to talk about our disciplined investment management process. So once a quarter, we get a deep dive and analysis done on the model portfolios that we use. As an outcome of that process, we look at two factors and there are two decisions that have to be made by the investment committee. The first one is the overall asset allocation: what is the proportion of the portfolio going into cash, bonds, and stocks, as well as Canadian, US, International, etc. And then the second part of that process is to decide who will be managing the different asset classes. So today, we've got Franklin Templeton and their ClearBridge group who manage the Canadian equity portion of the portfolios. They're going to be discussing the economy, the stock market, and their investment process specifically. So I'd like to introduce Dave Wall. He's going to be our guest today. And the first question I have is: where are the markets and the economy at, what brought us here, and then what is your outlook going forward?
Hi Graeme, pleasure to be here with you. And there we go, my screen is live for you. You got it? Good. Pleasure to be here. Again, I look forward to the next five or ten minutes. We're going to talk about Canadian equities and kind of the journey that we've been on. By the way, great initiative by you and your team, and really a great idea to keep your clients up to speed. I really like it and well done. If we're going to start from a position of talking about the markets, I think it's important to start from a macro perspective and really talk briefly about inflation, interest rates, and how that has affected markets in the last five years and investing overall. And then maybe drill down to Canada versus US markets. So since COVID, say the last four or five years, there's been a real intense market focus on equities. A large stimulus helped to drive the markets and the growth of the markets, which was followed by an unprecedented rise in interest rates to really slow the economy down and in effect direct the markets again. It has really been an environment of central banks controlling things. We think now there's really some normalcy returning to the markets and fine-tuning has begun. We're starting to get rate cuts when there is a decent economic environment and a good labor market as well, maybe more so in the US than Canada perhaps, but overall a pretty good labor market. A key takeaway to think of the market over the last few years is that a rising tide floats all boats. Well, we believe the tide has turned, no pun intended Graeme, although it kind of does fit my narrative, and it will be increasingly a stock picker's market and active managers will have an opportunity to perform. Still lots of uncertainties to consider in the market: tariffs in the US after the election, specifically wars in conflict, China, their underperforming economy and market, the effects of AI and how that's going to transcend the industry over the next few years, and more specifically in Canada for us, mortgage rate resets and really the challenge that that provides for the consumer. We think that the market is frothy and priced probably to perfection. There's still that fear of missing out attitude that is seeking high-flying growth names like the MAG 7 in the US. Rate cuts in Canada will continue and we seem to be heading probably to a little bit slower economy as of right now. But with that all in mind, we think that we're well positioned for that and we'll speak to that a little bit later on. Now maybe let's turn to the markets briefly. The first slide is an interesting slide that illustrates how Canadian markets have outperformed US markets over the last 25 years.
Yeah, so to interrupt, but this is really interesting how in more recent history the US has been outperforming Canada and I think that this is a good slide just to make the point about the opportunities that are here at the right time.
Absolutely, and most people do view the last 10 years especially as the US always outperforms Canada. That's not the case and even for many really investing experts, Graeme, they forget that Canada has great long-term performance if you take a different time period than the most recent bias. The first 10 years of the millennium, if you look from 2000 on, was a large outperformance for Canada. The US had a good run up in the 90s and then the tech bubble had the US market lag. And even if you look at this and you can see the chart, it was negative up till eight or nine years into the 2000s. Now it's done a great job to catch up as the markets do come and go, but the Canadian market outperformed in the third quarter of this year for the first time in seven quarters. And that's why it's important for investment professionals like you. They're so key in providing advice and a long-term perspective as the performance and leadership and performance does ebb and flow. There's another great debate that I'm sure that you're always looking at, Graeme, you and the team, and especially for investors, it's the debate over growth versus value. And this slide again shows 25 years of performance and the first 20 years really look very similar. Growth and value were kind of neck and neck as we went forward. Then we enter the pandemic in a large stimulus environment where growth has outperformed. The question to ask is how much of that was driven by fundamentals, and I know you guys think about this all the time, and how much of this was really just a huge stimulus and a large influx of cash to economies. Regardless of the answer there, we think there's still lots of froth in the market. Now I know that Graeme's done his due diligence on your behalf and has trusted us with a portion of your Canadian investments. Why has he done that and what can you expect going forward? I'm going to try to give some insight on that in the next couple of slides.
And I'll just interrupt for a quick minute here. The way I think a good analogy to look at part of the role of a portfolio manager, which is the role I'm licensed as a portfolio manager, I head our investment committee and make these decisions, it's almost like managing a hockey team where we need a defenseman, we need a goalie, we need some forwards, and we need some scorers. And every quarter when we review and analyze the portfolios, we're trying to decide if our goalie is doing their job or do they need to be replaced, are the defensemen doing their job or do they need to be replaced. So what we're looking at here is analyzing our Canadian equity player, which right now we're using Franklin Templeton and the ClearBridge team. I've used them for a number of years, very familiar with them, they've done a fantastic job. So this player is one that we keep our eyes on, but they're doing a great job. And I'm going to turn it back over and you can let us know about your process and then the results of that process.
Sure, yep, thanks Graeme. Yep, so this slide really is trying to illustrate our four focuses underlying our investments and how we build our portfolio. So I'll go quickly over this, there's some points in here, but the four things that I really want you to think about is we want to provide an absolute return for investors of high single to low double-digit returns again over the long run because there are ebbs and flows. We want to outperform the benchmark or the overall Canadian market by 2% annualized over the long period and we've managed to do that. It's actually been almost 2.5% annualized outperformance. We want to take less risk than the market and we want to protect on the downside and maintain that little bit more defensive stance overall in the market. So the goal for us is better risk-adjusted returns overall and this should help you understand how we'll perform in different markets. And I'll give you an example, when the market is high-flying, we're going to do our best to keep up with the Joneses. As an example, over one period the market returned around 26% up until now and we returned 24%. Proud of the number, but a little bit of underperformance. But in a year like 2022 when the market was down 5%, this Canadian strategy was up 3%. And that's exactly what we're trying to achieve because you realize that if you lose 50% of an investment in one year, you have to make up 100% the next year to break even. So we want to continue to protect on the downside and that's one of the characteristics that I look for in our portfolio managers, especially in the portfolios for our retired clients. I believe that we're paid and people are happier saving the downside than necessarily getting that last half a percent on the upside. So it's kind of long-term steadier growth.
Yeah, go ahead.
Yeah, great, and that does fit our investment philosophy as well. So overall, just on this slide, and I'll illustrate just a few points for you guys, overall our positioning is defensive but not conservative. We are willing to take on risk when appropriate and find the best opportunities for you and Graeme's team. This slide shows our positioning and you can see we are overweight in the defensive sectors. So take utilities for example. If you rewind a year ago when interest rates were a little bit higher and possibly at their peak, utilities were underperforming and we were able to add with rates rolling over and the demand for electricity increasing, and AI as well with the demand there, we like our position. Energy is an example of us adding where opportunities arise. We like the Western Basin for oil with the addition of the Trans Mountain pipeline and on the gas side, LNG Canada coming on board. We think that's going to help names in western Canada and the Alberta Basin. It's a good backdrop for names like Pembina, Enbridge, etc. You can also see just as an aside, we've lessened our weight to consumer staples and only because we've been able to do that on their strength. Example names like Loblaw, etc. have performed well and we continue to trim those names to find other opportunities. Just a real quick example, financials continue to be our largest overweight although we've added and subtracted to individual banks where warranted. I think that from that perspective, just so you know, our cash, we try to be invested in cash all the time but we do use some cash that's available to make sure that we can add to positions when we see the opportunities. This is my favorite slide, Graeme, and you know we talk about why it's compelling for us to be part of your mandate and really why you think it's probably important for us to be part of your client's mandates. And this is really the slide. We've only had five managers on the fund in 40 plus years of existence and that means you can count on the continuation of the same process that has led to this kind of performance. The top slide, and I'll divide this slide into two different quick discussions, the top portion shows the outperformance of our mandate which is in blue over the S&P TSX which is in red over the 40 plus years that we've been in existence. A considerable outperformance. The bottom portion illustrates a couple of things. What this is showing is rolling five-year periods by month and really that equates to I think 440 iterations over the long period of time that we've been in existence. We've been able to outperform the benchmark in over 80% of those time frames and more importantly, we've only had one negative period and that is during the global financial crisis where the market has had 12 negative periods. So from my perspective, that's a very important concept for your clients to understand that over the long period of time, the risk-reward and the performance profile that you get has a smoother ride but in the long period of time, pretty good outperformance. I just want to say to you that if this isn't, and you guys use it as your primary fund, I think it shows predictable returns and protection on the downside. It's a really profitable ride and a smooth one, Graeme. And that's, I'll turn it back over to you if there's anything else you want to chat about.
Well, thank you very much, Dave. That's fantastic. And just to bring it to a close, the team at SM Financial Group are here to help. If you ever have any questions, reach out. I'm really happy with the team we've assembled. Our investment management process is very disciplined. We have that quarterly deep dive and review of the asset allocation of each of the teams we're using to manage the different positions in your portfolio. We've been very happy with Franklin Templeton and the ClearBridge group. It was the name changed from Bisset, so I often might slip in the wrong name once in a while. I've been using them for a while. And so yeah, like I said, not here to make people rich, I'm here to keep them rich or keep whatever level of savings they have there and grow it over time to help them achieve their goals. So please feel free to reach out to our team at any time. Dave, thank you very much and I hope everyone has a great day.
Thanks, Graeme. Thank you.
National Bank Financial - Wealth Management (NBFWM) is a division of National Bank Financial Inc. (NBF), as well as a trademark owned by National Bank of Canada (NBC) that is used under license by NBF. NBF is a member of the Canadian Investment Regulatory Organization (CIRO) and the Canadian Investor Protection Fund (CIPF), and is a wholly-owned subsidiary of NBC, a public company listed on the Toronto Stock Exchange (TSX: NA). The information contained herein is obtained from sources we believe to be reliable, but are not guaranteed by us and may be incomplete. The opinions expressed are based upon our analysis and interpretation of this information and are not to be construed as a solicitation or offer to buy or sell securities. The securities or sectors mentioned herein are not suitable for all types of investors. Please consult your Wealth Advisor to verify whether the securities or sectors suit your investor's profile as well as to obtain complete information, including the main risk factors, regarding those securities or sectors.
The opinions, endorsements, and recommendations expressed in my profile do not necessarily reflect those of National Bank Financial. This site and electronic communications will be monitored by National Bank Financial for compliance purposes."
National Bank Financial - Wealth Management (NBFWM) is a division of National Bank Financial Inc. (NBF), as well as a trademark owned by National Bank of Canada (NBC) that is used under license by NBF. NBF is a member of the Canadian Investment Regulatory Organization (CIRO) and the Canadian Investor Protection Fund (CIPF). NBF and National Bank Investments Inc. (NBI) are wholly owned subsidiaries of NBC, a public company listed on the Toronto Stock Exchange (TSX: NA). NBI is a registered trademark of NBC, used under license by NBI.
This video may not be reproduced either wholly or in part. It must
not be distributed or published in any way whatsoever. No mention of
the information, opinions, and conclusions it contains may be made
without the express written pre-approval of NBF and NBI for each
instance.
NBF may act as financial advisor, fiscal agent or
underwriter for certain companies mentioned herein and may receive
remuneration for its services. NBF and/or its officers, directors,
representatives, or associates may have a position in the securities
mentioned herein and may make purchases and/or sales of these
securities from time to time on the open market or otherwise.
The information and the data supplied in the present video, including those supplied by third parties, are considered accurate at the time of their publishing, and were obtained from sources which we considered reliable. We reserve the right to modify them without advance notice. This information and data are supplied as informative content only. No representation or guarantee, explicit or implicit, is made as for the exactness, the quality and the complete character of this information and these data. The opinions expressed are not to be construed as solicitation or offer to buy or sell shares mentioned herein and should not be considered as recommendations. The opinions are not intended as investment advice, nor are they provided to promote any particular investments and should in no way form the basis for your investment decisions.
We have prepared this video to the best of our judgment and professional experience to give you our thoughts on various financial aspects and considerations. The opinions expressed herein, which represent our informed opinions rather than research analyses, may not reflect the views of NBF or NBI.
The information contained herein has been prepared by Graeme Sivertson, a Wealth Advisor and Portfolio Manager at NBF and Martin Lefebvre, Vice-President Strategist and Head of Investment CIO Office at NBI.
The opinions, endorsements, and recommendations expressed in my profile do not necessarily reflect those of National Bank Financial. This site and electronic communications will be monitored by National Bank Financial for compliance purposes."
National Bank Financial - Wealth Management (NBFWM) is a division of National Bank Financial Inc. (NBF), as well as a trademark owned by National Bank of Canada (NBC) that is used under license by NBF. NBF is a member of the Canadian Investment Regulatory Organization (CIRO) and the Canadian Investor Protection Fund (CIPF), and is a wholly owned subsidiary of NBC, a public company listed on the Toronto Stock Exchange (TSX: NA).
This video may not be reproduced either wholly or in part. It must not be distributed or published in any way whatsoever. No mention of the information, opinions and conclusions it contains may be made without the express written pre-approval of NBF for each instance.
NBF may act as financial advisor, fiscal agent or underwriter for certain companies mentioned herein and may receive remuneration for its services. NBF and/or its officers, directors, representatives, or associates may have a position in the securities mentioned herein and may make purchases and/or sales of these securities from time to time on the open market or otherwise.
The particulars contained herein were obtained from sources we believe to be reliable but are not guaranteed by us and may be incomplete. The opinions expressed are based upon our analysis and interpretation of these particulars and are not to be construed as a solicitation or offer to buy or sell the securities mentioned herein. The opinions expressed do not necessarily reflect those of NBF. Rates and Dividends mentioned herein are current values and are not guaranteed, their values may change frequently, and past performance may not be repeated.
We have prepared this video to the best of our judgment and professional experience to give you our thoughts on various financial aspects and considerations. The opinions expressed herein, which represent our informed opinions rather than research analyses, may not reflect the views of NBF.
The securities or sectors mentioned herein are not suitable for all types of investors. Please consult your wealth advisor to verify whether the securities or sectors suit your investor's profile as well as to obtain complete information, including the main risk factors, regarding those securities or sectors.
The information contained herein has been prepared by Graeme Sivertson, a Wealth Advisor and Portfolio Manager at NBF and Andrew Buntain, Vice-President, Institutional Portfolio Manager at Franklin Bissett Investment Management.
This video has been approved by Franklin Templeton Inc. for publication on this microsite and SM Financial Group’s YouTube channel.
The opinions, endorsements, and recommendations expressed in my profile do not necessarily reflect those of National Bank Financial. This site and electronic communications will be monitored by National Bank Financial for compliance purposes.
National Bank Financial - Wealth Management (NBFWM) is a division of National Bank Financial Inc. (NBF), as well as a trademark owned by National Bank of Canada (NBC) that is used under license by NBF. NBF is a member of the Canadian Investment Regulatory Organization (CIRO) and the Canadian Investor Protection Fund (CIPF), and is a wholly-owned subsidiary of NBC, a public company listed on the Toronto Stock Exchange (TSX: NA).
The opinions, endorsements, and recommendations expressed in my profile do not necessarily reflect those of National Bank Financial. This site and electronic communications will be monitored by National Bank Financial for compliance purposes."
National Bank Financial - Wealth Management (NBFWM) is a division of National Bank Financial Inc. (NBF), as well as a trademark owned by National Bank of Canada (NBC) that is used under license by NBF. NBF is a member of the Canadian Investment Regulatory Organization (CIRO) and the Canadian Investor Protection Fund (CIPF). NBF and National Bank Investments Inc. (NBI) are wholly owned subsidiaries of NBC, a public company listed on the Toronto Stock Exchange (TSX: NA). NBI is a registered trademark of NBC, used under license by NBI.
This video may not be reproduced either wholly or in part. It must
not be distributed or published in any way whatsoever. No mention of
the information, opinions, and conclusions it contains may be made
without the express written pre-approval of NBF and NBI for each
instance.
NBF may act as financial advisor, fiscal agent or
underwriter for certain companies mentioned herein and may receive
remuneration for its services. NBF and/or its officers, directors,
representatives, or associates may have a position in the securities
mentioned herein and may make purchases and/or sales of these
securities from time to time on the open market or otherwise.
The information and the data supplied in the present video, including those supplied by third parties, are considered accurate at the time of their publishing, and were obtained from sources which we considered reliable. We reserve the right to modify them without advance notice. This information and data are supplied as informative content only. No representation or guarantee, explicit or implicit, is made as for the exactness, the quality and the complete character of this information and these data. The opinions expressed are not to be construed as solicitation or offer to buy or sell shares mentioned herein and should not be considered as recommendations. The opinions are not intended as investment advice, nor are they provided to promote any particular investments and should in no way form the basis for your investment decisions.
We have prepared this video to the best of our judgment and professional experience to give you our thoughts on various financial aspects and considerations. The opinions expressed herein, which represent our informed opinions rather than research analyses, may not reflect the views of NBF or NBI.
The information contained herein has been prepared by Graeme Sivertson, a Wealth Advisor and Portfolio Manager at NBF and Martin Lefebvre, Vice-President Strategist and Head of Investment CIO Office at NBI.
The opinions, endorsements, and recommendations expressed in my profile do not necessarily reflect those of National Bank Financial. This site and electronic communications will be monitored by National Bank Financial for compliance purposes."
National Bank Financial - Wealth Management (NBFWM) is a division of National Bank Financial Inc. (NBF), as well as a trademark owned by National Bank of Canada (NBC) that is used under license by NBF. NBF is a member of the Canadian Investment Regulatory Organization (CIRO) and the Canadian Investor Protection Fund (CIPF), and is a wholly owned subsidiary of NBC, a public company listed on the Toronto Stock Exchange (TSX: NA).
This video may not be reproduced either wholly or in part. It must
not be distributed or published in any way whatsoever. No mention of
the information, opinions and conclusions it contains may be made
without the express written pre-approval of NBF for each
instance.
NBF may act as financial advisor, fiscal agent or
underwriter for certain companies mentioned herein and may receive
remuneration for its services. NBF and/or its officers, directors,
representatives, or associates may have a position in the securities
mentioned herein and may make purchases and/or sales of these
securities from time to time on the open market or otherwise.
The particulars contained herein were obtained from sources we believe to be reliable but are not guaranteed by us and may be incomplete. The opinions expressed are based upon our analysis and interpretation of these particulars and are not to be construed as a solicitation or offer to buy or sell the securities mentioned herein. The opinions expressed do not necessarily reflect those of NBF. Rates and Dividends mentioned herein are current values and are not guaranteed, their values may change frequently, and past performance may not be repeated.
We have prepared this video to the best of our judgment and professional experience to give you our thoughts on various financial aspects and considerations. The opinions expressed herein, which represent our informed opinions rather than research analyses, may not reflect the views of NBF.
The securities or sectors mentioned herein are not suitable for all types of investors. Please consult your wealth advisor to verify whether the securities or sectors suit your investor's profile as well as to obtain complete information, including the main risk factors, regarding those securities or sectors.
The information contained herein has been prepared by Graeme Sivertson, a Wealth Advisor and Portfolio Manager at NBF and Andrew Buntain, Vice-President, Institutional Portfolio Manager at Franklin Bissett Investment Management.
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To keep you informed and stimulate your thinking, Stéfane Marion and Nancy Paquet take a look at economic news and share their perspectives in our monthly informative videos.
Hello everyone, we are Wednesday, July 15th, 2026. Stéfane, a pleasure to be here with you again today. So, tell me, are the markets running out of speed?
Ah, they seem to be. Last time we saw a new record high on global equities, Nancy, it was the beginning of June. Notice that, you know, at the beginning of the Strait of Hormuz intervention, we had a correction, a big rebound stalling. And I think there's some geopolitics undermining the markets at this point in time.
I think so. So, you know, probably has an impact on the oil price for sure.
So, it coincides with renewed upward pressure on oil. Notice, Nancy, that we're still very far from the levels that exceeded $100, but it's.
Going up.
It's quite the rebound in recent weeks with renewed tensions.
And of course, that's mostly related to the Strait of Hormuz.
So, doesn't matter what politicians say. Politicians say, open or not open, traffic says it's not open. So, if you look at the underlying data, you can explain what's happening on the oil prices via traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, which is not reopened. So even though we put it, is it open? That is the question or not, it's not reopened at this point in time, hence the pressure on oil prices.
And it also has an impact because there is limited availability of various products, therefore.
So, there's something important to note. So, there's the Strait of Hormuz, but there's also a war elsewhere in the world. And what's happening in Europe where you're seeing destruction of refineries, particularly in Russia, which accounts for 11% of diesel sales around the world. You're seeing that refining, the cost of refining oil is surging because there's less refined capacity at refinery levels. So, crack spreads, which is one way to look at the price of refined products if you want, actually exceeds what you saw in 2022 that started the beginning of the war in Ukraine when crude oil was much higher. So what that means, Nancy, at the end of the day is like the economy works on refined products and they're up significantly, whether it's gasoline, diesel, diesel, and it shows up in a global supply chain. So yes, crude prices have rebounded. They're still below where they were before, but gasoline and diesel might hit new all-time highs in the coming week.
Yeah. And that's what consumers feel when they go to the pump, right?
Yeah. And remember, Russia actually said that they were restricting exports of diesel for the next month. And if there's more refinery capacity that's destroyed, probably that will last longer. So, hence the impact on global transportation costs.
And it will take time before everything goes back to normal, right?
So, politicians say something, betting markets say something else. So according to betting markets, you're not gonna reopen by the end of July, 2% probability, end of August 13%, end of September 27%. We're below 50% until the end of the year. Nancy, what that means is that you're going to continue to impact the global supply chain. So, I know U.S. inflation was weaker than expected this month but be prepared for potential upside surprise.
And obviously, let's say it opens December 31st. The next day, everything will not be back to normal. We felt that during the pandemic, it took months before things.
You have to replenish inventories, yes, you're right. So, probably the key story here is to say global supply chains, you know, the pressures on global supply chains are the most acute we've seen since the COVID recession. Historically, that's accompanied with positive or if you want negative surprise in the sense that inflation is higher than expected. So, this is why we're still not out of the woods. So, coming back to your first question, are the markets running out of steam? Well, the markets are looking at this– How do we assess the impact on the global economy and earnings in this situation?
And even so, since the beginning of this conversation, we've had, you know, geopolitical not so good news, not dramatic, but not so good. But then again, markets expectations are surprisingly high.
So, this does not necessarily show up in terms of earnings expectation because right now, as we speak, the expectation is that virtually every large region of the world will deliver more than 20% earnings per share growth so profitability will increase by 20%. It's you know, listen, it's possible. I just want to say these expectations are quite ambitious if you have more pressure on the supply chain in the coming weeks.
And what's surprising is your graph is that there's no negative, there's no one single digit.
No, no double digit, minimum double digit. So, as we said last month, the expectations are still the best earnings per share growth globally ever seen outside a recession recovery. So, market surprise for better news, not worse news, hence the need to watch what's happening on the geopolitical front in the coming weeks.
So, one good news we got this morning is Bank of Canada.
Well, if not moving interest rates is good news, yes, it is because we're keeping our.
But for our consumers it is.
Well, most of our, you're absolutely right, most of our clients would appreciate that and we remain in a jurisdiction where interest rates are lower than the rest of the world. So, that's good news. And the other good news, Nancy, is the Bank Canada, actually, they stayed on the sidelines, and they recognized that well we might see a better rebound in GDP than we expected in the second quarter, remember we had two negative quarters. Now we're set to rebound 2% in the second quarter. That's good news.
Yeah. And you have another one about employment.
Oh yeah, so GDP rebound is not very important for me if it's not accompanied by a jump in employment. And the good news is we seem to be confirming better news on GDP with the June employment data, particularly for people age 25 to 54 who are critical for the credit cycle, right? So, new all time high on employment for people 25 to 54. Now, Nancy, I know you're going to tell me "Yeah, but you told me population growth is negative this year", but permanent immigration is still up and it really has an impact on people 25 to 54. But yes, population will be down because many foreign students or temporary workers that tend to be younger will be negatively impacted. But that's good news for the credit cycle and for potential GDP rebound.
Good. So, you have another good for us about the production level that would be increasing in Canada.
So, people have been talking about trade diversification. It's hard to do in the short term if you don't tap into natural resources. And so oil production's on the rise in Canada and the expectation is they will continue to rise because there was a new pipeline announcement between Ottawa, Alberta, and British Columbia that seems to be inclined to provide more oil to the rest of the world. 90% currently goes to the U.S. and if you want diversification, you need a pipeline. So, from that standpoint, it's positive news in terms of diversification and note that from a trade balance perspective, it will help support the Canadian dollar. So again, there's upside potential here for oil production in Canada. And if you want to become an energy superpower, you know, it goes with that title. So again, I think that this is constructive from a trade diversification perspective, which the government actually is hoping for.
So, a lot of good news, Stéfane. So even though the microeconomic is very volatile, I mean, you've brought us a couple of very interesting news today. So, thank you for that.
Pleasure.
And for all of you, I hope that you will enjoy the summer and that you will take the time during your vacation to reflect on your situation and talk to your advisors. And we will see you again in August. So thank you. Thank you, Stéfane.
5 minutes, 4 graphs, 3 key takeaways! Discover a fresh focused quarterly review of markets, the economy and investments with expert Louis Lajoie from our CIO Office.
Hello, everyone. Today, June 12, I’m going to briefly look back on the investment backdrop: what is reassuring, what is perhaps a bit concerning, and what we’re going to be monitoring going forward.
But before we do so, let’s just go back to where we were three months ago, at the time of the last webcast, which was just at the beginning of one of the worst energy crises in modern times. Back then, there were essentially two prevailing narratives: either oil prices were headed to $200 a barrel, in which case we would have a global recession, or there would be a swift resolution allowing prices to go back to where they were. What actually happened? Something in between, where in the absence of a resolution, oil markets, nonetheless, found somewhat of an equilibrium, thanks to greater usage of some pipelines, the fact that the respective blockades are slightly permeable, and, most importantly, the substantial use of global oil reserves, which, by definition, means that this balance is temporary. We’re going to have to see a greater pickup in maritime activity in the Persian Gulf very soon. But regardless, in any event, what has become clear now is that energy prices are not going to go back to their previous lows. They’re going to remain higher.
The good news is that we’re seeing this is not preventing equity markets from renewing with an upward trend, which has been the story in the second quarter, as you can see here. And this rebound in stock prices has not been driven entirely by hope. It’s actually been driven by substantial and sustained earnings growth around the world, with earnings growth actually stronger than the increase in stock prices since the beginning of the year. That is, in part, reflecting substantial earnings gains for a few stocks involved in semiconductor manufacturing, notably in emerging markets.
But globally speaking, it remains true that economic activity has remained rather positive, with, for instance, the U.S. Economic Surprise Index at its highest level since 2024. That is also good news. But it also raises questions about the future path of inflation, because we all know that inflation reacts with a lag to growth. We saw an extreme case of that in 2021 and then the inflation surge in 2022. That has not been the case in the last two years, most likely because, over that period, the labour market was much more balanced, and that remains the case for now. And so that is why this is a risk to us, not a view.
What’s clear, though, is that markets are going to be paying a lot of attention to what the U.S. Federal Reserve is about to do against this rather complex backdrop, especially since we are going to be facing, for the first time in eight years, a new Fed chair, Mr. Warsh. Just three months ago, markets thought that he would probably be able to cut rates slightly. But lately, markets have actually been discounting perhaps a few rate hikes going forward. We’ll have to see. But even if rate hikes actually do happen, in our mind, this is not necessarily a problem, in the sense that it is much better to have roughly neutral monetary policy than perhaps overly accommodative interest rates, which would only create a bigger inflation problem down the road. But if we were eventually to talk about restrictive monetary policy, that would be a different discussion. And that is the risk we’re going to be monitoring, but that is not the expectation as we speak.
Three takeaways for you today. Essentially, again, the worst has been avoided and is likely to continue to be avoided, even though we don’t expect perfect stability here in the Persian Gulf. That is why we’ll have to keep an eye on inflation, which is definitely not on track to go back to the 2% target, something we haven’t seen in just over five years now in the U.S. We’ll have to see how Mr. Warsh navigates all of this. But globally speaking, we don’t expect any massive changes in global trends, which are rather positive for equity markets, as we have seen. But we must remain vigilant here, because the fact of the matter is that the range of outcomes, the range of uncertainty, remains exceptionally large.
That’s it for today. Thank you for listening. We’ll talk again in September. Have a great summer, everyone.
The experts at National Bank Financial give a detailed analysis on how the stock markets and fixed income markets have performed every week.
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