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MacDougall Wealth Management Group Videos

February 13 2025

Intro

Jared: Welcome to the Tax Talk Podcast. On today's episode, I have Kit Richmond. Kit is here to discuss everything IPPs (Individual Pension Plans).

So, if you are a small business owner with a significant salary and are at least 40 years old, this is the episode you are going to want to watch.

Kit is going to unpack this topic in detail with me, and we will provide you with the information you need to make informed decisions to help you build that pension.

 

Overview of Episode

Jared: Kit Richmond is a Wealth Advisor and Portfolio Manager at the McDougall Wealth Management Group with National Bank Financial. Their team partners with entrepreneurs, professionals, business owners, and family farms in their goal to continue wealth creation, enable protection, and structure transition. The McDougall team offers a unique approach to wealth management with expertise and personal service to guide you and your family.

Kit, I just want to thank you for taking some time out of your busy schedule to hop on the podcast with me today.

Kit: Thanks a lot, Jared, really appreciate it.

Jared: Excellent. So, we are diving into a topic that seems to be coming up with my clients on a more regular basis, and that is individual pension plans. I figured Kit would be a good resource on this, and I'm looking forward to the insight that he can provide to you today.

 

What is an IPP?

Kit: So, let's start with the most basic question: What is an Individual Pension Plan, or an IPP?

An IPP, Individual Pension Plan, is essentially a defined benefit plan that is typically sponsored by a corporation. There are some advantages under the Income Tax Act in doing so. It's similar to an RRSP in certain senses but has specific advantages that might apply to some of the listeners of this podcast.

 

Setting up an IPP

Jared: So, in regards to that, is it something that someone, you know, if they've got a small business corporation, they could set up themselves? Do they need to speak to you, or is there another advisor that needs to be involved with this? How does that come about?

Kit: Good question. Generally, an IPP is set up with three different collaborating professionals and the business owner or professional service provider who is the client.

The first one is an accountant, which makes sense for most things, right? The second is an actuarial team because it is a pension plan regulated under the CRA, which requires certain disclosures every year and a triennial review every three years. The third is a Wealth Advisor or wealth advisory team, as you'll need to invest the funds within the pension plan.

Jared: So, similar to other investment opportunities that people might be looking into, it's important to get the right people on your team to ensure you're setting up a proper plan that benefits you. Getting these individuals on your team to get this pension plan in place is crucial if it's an option for you in your business.

Kit: Right, and I think the first step is to ask your accountant or wealth advisor, or one that you know offers this service, if an IPP is right for you. There are some costs involved, but the advantages generally outweigh the costs if it fits for you and your family. So, it's essential to ask your accountant or wealth advisor, who usually have contacts in the actuarial world to facilitate this.

Jared: Yeah, generally speaking, whenever I have clients come into my office, and I'm guessing it's the same for you, they ask if a particular plan or idea makes sense for them. The general discussion usually starts with "it depends," because we need to get into the details to determine if it is beneficial for you. Maybe the IPP is perfect for you, or perhaps it's not the best option, so having that discussion before jumping into something is crucial for getting the best bang for your buck in the long run.

Kit: Exactly, and that depends on family dynamics, whether you're an incorporated business or not, and several other factors. Age is actually a significant factor for IPPs because the advantages accumulate as you get older. We'll probably discuss who the ideal candidate is next, right?

Jared: For sure. Now that we've understood what an IPP is, who can open one?

 

The ideal IPP candidate

Jared: What is the ideal candidate for an IPP? Is there a certain type of business owner we're looking to gear this towards? Some clients have mentioned it as a potential retirement vehicle. Are there other options, and who should consider this plan?

Kit: The first thing we look for is age. It doesn't make sense mathematically to do an IPP versus RRSPs or maybe Hold Co investing until you're 40. The other important question is whether they have excess capacity to contribute to savings. If they can't make the normal registered savings or contributions to a Hold Co, it doesn't make any sense to do an IPP. You must be committed to making those excess savings. Having a corporation is crucial because the corporation needs to sponsor the IPP. In Alberta, contributions to the IPP are not mandatory; they are optional contributions by the corporation.

Jared: So, you need to reach a point in life where you are somewhat established and in an age bracket where the math makes sense. You should be able to commit to this for the long term, including generational planning.

Kit: Exactly. The conversation needs to be around whether the business setup is something you're going to want for the foreseeable future. For example, if you're a medical professional with a PC setup that you'll maintain for 10, 20, 25 years, it makes sense to sponsor the IPP through that. You need to consider whether this is a permanent setup.

Jared: Similar to considering a permanent life insurance policy, you want to plan not just for the next 5-10 years but beyond that. It's crucial to have the right team to play out different scenarios that might arise.

Kit: Absolutely, the conversation has to be around whether this is the setup you intend to have long-term in your work. One significant benefit is that you can name beneficiaries not directly involved in the corporation, like spouses.

Jared: It's good to discuss the annual salary needed to make this work. Is there a specific figure that makes the mathematics work for an IPP?

Kit: There's the salary component and the excess cash building up in the corporation. The IPP is determined on T4 income, just like normal pension contributions and RSP room, which maxes out in the low $30,000s. The IPP crosses over at age 40 and can be up to 30% of your income, particularly beneficial in six-figure incomes. This allows you to contribute $10,000-$20,000 more per year using corporate dollars, which is different from personal dollars.

Jared: If you're well-established and drawing a consistent salary, maxing out RRSPs, and based on discussions with your accountant and wealth advisor, an IPP could be a strategy to put away more for retirement and generational planning.

Kit: Yes, you can accelerate your savings using corporate dollars, which is beneficial. There's also creditor protection and other benefits. If you're interested, review your T4 income for the last 5-10 years. You can qualify some RRSPs to roll into the IPP, giving you more advantages.

Jared: If someone primarily paid themselves through dividends, does that mean the IPP option has passed for them?

Kit: There's still time, especially if you're accruing a lot of cash within the company and paying for personal expenses with T4 income. It's essential to use that income to your benefit. Situations change, and planning needs to be revisited to ensure it still meets your needs and goals. If necessary, there are options to get out of an IPP, like purchasing an annuity or pushing it into an RRSP and LIRA. It can also exist as its own entity, paying out a pension even after the corporation is gone.

Jared: Planning is always subject to change. Does the IPP offer options to get out if circumstances change?

Kit: Yes, you can purchase an annuity or roll it into an RRSP and LIRA. It's not final; you have options, and it can exist independently of the sponsoring corporation. It's good to have creditor protection, ensuring your asset is safe, especially if you've built up significant value over the years.

Jared: The ultimate purpose of the IPP is to provide cash flow for your lifestyle, ensuring you're okay no matter what happens to the business. So, how is the IPP funded?

 

Funding an IPP

Jared: How is the IPP funded? Are there specific methods, and does it involve both the individual and the corporation contributing?

Kit: It's primarily funded through the corporation with tax-deductible payments. Since it is a registered pension plan with the CRA, certain return metrics are reviewed every three years. If returns are moderate, you can top up your contributions. However, if returns are high, additional contributions may not be allowed.

Jared: So, it's funded with after-tax dollars from the corporation, which is beneficial.

Kit: Yes, it's advantageous as it uses lower tax rate corporate dollars. This helps build retirement pensions. Other options include continuing with salaries and contributing to RRSPs, but this depends on where you are financially during retirement.

Jared: If the IPP survives the corporation, is it protected from creditors and kept separate from corporate assets?

Kit: Absolutely, it's a distinct entity. You can invest in various securities just like RRSPs without the active vs. passive income rules in corporations. This keeps your retirement funds separate and secure.

Jared: So, the IPP acts as a separate retirement vehicle funded by the business but owned by you, protecting you from creditor claims and possibly aiding in tax planning for selling the business.

Kit: Correct. It allows income splitting and offers long-term benefits for you and your family. It’s a great way to secure your lifestyle and plan for the future.

Jared: Income splitting within the family is highly beneficial for tax purposes. Are there opportunities for the second generation to benefit from the IPP?

Kit: Yes, but generally, this discussion happens after the primary beneficiaries have been drawing from it for some time. It ensures that your retirement years are well-established before passing it on to the next generation.

Jared: And the growth within the IPP is tax-deferred, right?

Kit: Indeed, it's like an RRSP but with a different tax rate, as you know. This tax-deferred growth over 30-40 years can significantly impact your retirement funds.

Jared: If the corporation ceases, can the IPP continue independently?

Kit: Yes, the IPP can exist as its own entity, avoiding unnecessary costs of maintaining a corporation. Though annual filings are required, the benefits of higher contributions make it worthwhile. Over time, an IPP can double the assets compared to a traditional RRSP, significantly impacting your retirement lifestyle.

Jared: That’s fascinating. Now, if I open an IPP, are there any limitations on the investments I can put into it?

Kit: Any investments eligible for a TFSA or RRSP are also eligible for an IPP. The wealth management team will guide you through different philosophies and setups. The key benefit is that there are no tax consequences when changing your portfolio composition over time.

 

Investment limitations

Jared: Is there any limitation on the investments that I can put into it, or is it fairly open-ended similar to maybe a TFSA or RRSP in the type of underlying investments that are in there? Do I have a choice over that? Is that something I work with you and your team to determine? How does that transpire?

Kit: Anything that is in a TFSA or an RRSP eligible would also be eligible for an IPP. The wealth management team that you're dealing with will have different philosophies around what that looks like, so I can't speak to other setups, but I know what ours are, and they are similar to our non-registered accounts or other corporate accounts. The key is there are no tax consequences, which is quite helpful in terms of changing portfolio composition over time. There are no tax considerations when you're doing that, which gives us flexibility to manage that over the years.

Jared: Well, that makes sense. I think it's always important to understand because the general consensus out there is that a tax-free savings account is a savings account, but in fact, it can be all sorts of different investment types that you can put into that particular investment vehicle. Similarly speaking with the RRSP or the IPP, maybe when you're getting this set up in your early 40s, you can take on a bit more risk in your younger years. Then, as the IPP gets further down the road, you might translate those into less risky assets to ensure you're preserving some of that capital into those retirement years. Is that something people do?

Kit: Some people do that. I think a more fundamental question is asking what is risk. For us and our team, risk really is the possibility of destruction of capital, not the volatility of day-to-day. The tax-free savings account really should have been named the tax-free investment account because the power is in compounding over longer periods of time on an after-tax basis.

Jared: I agree because as we get closer to distribution, we want to have a certain amount that does not change based on market fluctuations. For example, Jared is set up for the next two or three years with the agreed amount, and there’s no situation where you have to resort to drastic measures because the IPP didn't perform well.

Kit: Absolutely. When you get to that point in life, you've worked hard, and it’s emotional to move on from the business you've poured decades into. When you're finally able to move on to the next adventure in life, you want to make sure those hard-earned dollars are secure. The first rule of Warren Buffett is to not lose any money, and the second rule is to remember the first.

Jared: Exactly. If you're constantly trying to time the market, you end up doing the opposite. You buy high, sell low, and eventually have no capital left. Real investing is about preserving capital.

Kit: Absolutely. An IPP is a great vehicle for accelerating savings and providing certainty for retirement. It's a tough emotional period when you stop practicing or sell the business, and having the financial piece of your life set up is powerful.

Jared: Yes, it gives you the option to dive into another passion, like volunteering or a new project, without worrying about finances. It’s rewarding to take the passion from one place to another without financial stress.

Kit: You might get involved in another business in an advisory role or help a startup, knowing your lifestyle needs are taken care of.

 

After Retirement

Jared: So what happens to my IPP in retirement? What are my options? Does it stay as an IPP through my retirement years? Do I have options to do other things with it? How does that play out?

Kit: The first option is to keep it as a pension, so it operates as a pension for you subject to CRA rules. You can take out a certain amount, and it can go to the spouse as the main beneficiary. The second is you can purchase an annuity, depending on rates and such. Some might prefer owning a portfolio and seeing it go up and down but overall up over a long time, rather than the certainty of an annuity. The third option is transferring to registered or locked-in plans, which you can work through.

Jared: That makes sense. Generally speaking, as long as you’re moving it within the registered side, there shouldn’t be any adverse tax impacts, right?

Kit: Correct, and it gives you flexibility to draw it down quicker if, for example, your health is a concern. There’s an unlocking you can do for locked-in plans, which might be more accelerated.

Jared: Does the unlocking work similarly to the LIRA, or is there an accelerated option?

Kit: With an LIRA, you can unlock 50% and put it into an RRSP, which has no withdrawal limitations, although you still pay tax. With a LIF, you have a maximum withdrawal limit to adhere to.

Jared: That’s more of a tax planning discussion with clients if there’s a health or other situation that accelerates it. If everything's fine, keep it in the IPP and move on.

Kit: Exactly. For example, health concerns can pop up unexpectedly, so it’s good to know your options and that you’re not stuck with the IPP forever.

Jared: If I pass away, does the IPP transfer at cost to my spouse?

Kit: Yes, there’s a rollover to the beneficiary. There's also the option for second-generation planning, which is more complicated but available.

Jared: Would you involve second-generation planning if the corporation was intended to keep going and transition to a child?

Kit: Yes, if the child buys the business from the parents, the parents keep their IPP separate and get paid over time. The child could start their own if they prefer.

Jared: The IPP stays tied to the original owner, so new owners can set up their own. This could be a strategy to move the business to kids, easing cash flow for the transition.

Kit: Absolutely. This gives flexibility and patience in selling the business, whether to kids or a third party, without the pressure to maximize immediately.

Jared: Flexibility helps with unexpected changes in the business environment. Would you prefer cash or a business that might not perform as well in the future?

Kit: That’s right. Sometimes, it’s better to have cash. In cases where multiple children inherit the business, it might be problematic if only one is interested.

Jared: The IPP can help avoid difficult family dynamics, ensuring financial security for the original owners while giving kids the option without pressure.

Kit: Exactly. It allows for smooth transitions and avoids forced sales due to health issues or other emergencies.

Jared: Preserving family relationships is crucial during transitions. Even if maximizing returns is important, maintaining harmony should be a priority.

Kit: Often, one spouse prioritizes family harmony. While transferring assets is important, sometimes relationships matter more.

 

Wrapping it all up

Jared: Wrapping it all up, do you have any final thoughts on IPPs that we didn't touch on and you think would be important for the audience to hear?

Kit: Just as a summary, IPPs are a tool that not a lot of people know about. Especially for professionals and business owners given the current tax structure and other economic factors, they are worth considering to confirm and protect your lifestyle for the future while being effective going forward.

Jared: I completely agree. I had some knowledge going into this, but this conversation has opened my eyes to new opportunities for certain clients, especially in the niche of business transitions. The transition piece was particularly enlightening and useful for many clients.

Kit: Absolutely. The key is to avoid getting stuck in a corner, whether with an IPP or another tool. Limiting your options can have long-term implications, both before and during retirement.

Jared: Exactly. Kit, thank you so much for joining me on the podcast. For anyone in the audience who wants to reach out to you, what's the best way?

Kit: You can find me online as a member of the McDougall Wealth Management Group with National Bank Financial in Red Deer. Alternatively, you can contact Jared, and he can forward my contact information. We have clients all over Alberta, so the location isn't a barrier. We really pride ourselves on building relationships with our clients and helping them achieve their goals.

Jared: Excellent. Thank you again, Kit. I really appreciate it. Once again, this is Jared Palon for the Tax Talk podcast. Thanks for listening, and we'll see you on the next episode. Take care!

July 5  2021

Economic news

Economic Impact

To keep you informed and stimulate your thinking, Stéfane Marion and Nancy Paquet take a look at economic news and share their perspectives in our monthly informative videos.

Welcome to Economic Impact. We are June 10th, 2026. Stéfane, so happy to be here with you again today.

Happy to be here with you.

So, I'm going to start hard. I'm going to ask you if we are in the most feared word for an economist. Are we in a recession?

That's a big word.

I know.

Yeah. I think it's important to demystify what's happening there. You know, the fact that people qualify recession as two consecutive quarters in that negative growth is not sufficient nowadays, not in a globalized economy. So, there were special factors that impacted Canadian GDP in the first quarter. But listen, I'm not here to be complacent, Nancy. Clearly, if you look at it from a year-to-year basis, you know, we're at 0, slightly negative. The U.S. is outperforming. Clearly it was not a great quarter, but it does not qualify as a recession.

So, that's a good news. You start with the scary graph, but it's a good news.

Yes. More importantly, what's happening for Q2 and the good news is that employment is rebounding and it's not just any type of jobs, it's full-time employment that is now back to an all time high. And the increase that we saw in May was the biggest increase in Canadian history outside the COVID episode. So, clearly.

Something.

It wasn't great in Q1.

Yeah.

But whatever it was, it wasn't a recession, but things looked much better because that will sustain consumption. Consumption was still positive in Q1, consumer spending. But with this type of job creation, it will remain resilient in the second quarter. So, I have the basically, the biggest component of GDP that is going to show a rebound in Q2. So that's good news.

So that's why Bank of Canada didn't move its rate this morning?

Yes because if they thought we were in a recession, let's be honest, they would have actually cut interest rates, not keep them where they are right now. They recognize that growth is underwhelming, but they will not also at the same time conclude that this is a recession. Not with what's happening on the job market.

That's good. And what about our GDP? How's it going?

Well, GDP, you mean the most important component after consumption.

Trade surplus.

The trade surplus. So, we spoke about it a few weeks ago as Canada normally benefits from higher energy prices. We have the confirmation for Q2, Nancy. New all-time record on net energy exports which brought the trade balance back from deficit into surplus. So, I have the two largest components of GDP in Q2 consumption that's doing better and the export sector. Now all we need is more business investment. We'll see what USMCA later this year, but I have a GDP rebound in the makings for Q2.

That's interesting because we had one scary graph, two good news. But then again, our loonie is the lowest that we've seen in so many times.

Well, it's.

And people are gonna take their summer vacation now, right?

Yeah, well, let's wait a few months. I don't think there's much more downside to the Canadian dollar at this point in time unless USMCA is completely derailed. But the reality is we have the worst performing reserve currency over the past month. So, we're actually back to where we were at the worst of the Hormuz.

Beginning of.

Beginning of the intervention in the Strait of Hormuz. So, this is not good news. This is frustrating for me as an economist. But we had predicted that Q2 might be softer and.

It shouldn't go down, right?

We're happy to stabilize it at this level here unless, as I say, there's a derailment in USMCA negotiations.

Absolutely. And what about gold? I recall one of our first calls of the year, we had called it for $5000 and it did surpass.

So yes, it did. And the reason we're here, Nancy, is because gold prices are not doing very well right now. We started the year at more than $5200. We're back down and we had said that gold will be in a $4000 to $6000 range, probably going to retest 4000, hence serve you that we were more cautious on the Canadian dollar. So, things are unfolding pretty much according to the scenario. And yes, you're absolutely right. What's weighing on the loonie right now is the performance of gold.

And when I was in college and university, I remember that we used to call our Canadian dollar the petro dollar, but it seems that it's not working that way anymore.

Well, we're not a petro dollar right now. We're more of a golden dollar because the correlation, again, intermarket correlations are not stable through time. So, you're absolutely right. Generally speaking, we should be positively correlated with oil, but now it's an inverted correlation. So, what is really, you know, driving the Canadian dollar is the price of bullion followed by the, you know, the interest rate differential with the U.S. But the price of bullion has been very, very important in determining what’s happening with the Canadian dollar. Oil might, you know, become positive in the months ahead. And I mean this can be temporary, but what's happening on gold has more importance on the Canadian dollar than it's ever had in the past. And that speaks to the geopolitical environment, right?

Of course, things are different, as we could say. And what about energy? Electricity?

This is so important. I mean, the new electricity strategy announced last month, and we spoke to this at the beginning of year. It doesn't matter. You might have all these nice plans for the Canadian economy down the road, reindustrialization, etcetera, but if I don't have access to electricity.

You can't, you can't do anything.

I can't execute. You're absolutely right. So, what happened in May, so yes, Ottawa signed a memorandum of understanding. They actually signed it off with Alberta and people are saying, well, that's just to please Alberta. It was more than that because by tabling the new electricity strategy, which aims to double electricity grid by 2050, they made natural gas or transition fuel. And that was not just to please Alberta, it was critical for the Ontario's electricity grid, which now relies more on natural gas than hydro to generate the electricity. And there's still capacity here on natural gas. So, it's just, we're not abandoning.

No, it's a transition, right?

The transition has been lengthened and that's critical because there's no way that we can participate in the AI revolution if we can't build data centres, if we can't reindustrialize. And the spare capacity that we have on the grid in Canada comes from natural gas. So, we need to be pragmatic. And for the first time in a decade, Ottawa became pragmatic, realizing that our growth potential was being seriously impaired if we did not declare natural gas a transition fuel.

So, that's another good news. So, it should translate in good markets, shouldn't it?

Well, it's— to have been good markets globally so far despite the geopolitical stress. So, but keep in mind this is quarter to date in Q2 and this is as of June 9th, last night, so basically.

39 days.

39 days and you're already up 23% for, you know, emerging markets, the S&P 13%, you know, the S&P TSX. These are performances that you see over the entire year. So, all I'm here to say, Nancy, yes, I respect what's happening in markets, but please do not necessarily expect a repeat performance in Q3 and Q4. A lot of good news is currently embedded in profit expectations and market performance. 

Okay. And what about the impact of the Strait of Hormuz still being closed?

So, hence the challenge of delivering strong markets like we've had so far in Q2. Inflation. It doesn't work when you have too much inflation, which might prod the Central Bank. So in Canada, into action. So, in Canada, we know the Central Bank's on the sideline. In the U.S. the issue that we have right now is that, you know, until recently, people are saying, "Well, the commodities' in short supply, is anything related to AI, nothing's happening elsewhere that would lead us to believe that inflation is going to be an issue in the next few months." But look what's happening in recent months, like for three months now, resins' an issue, aluminum.

Steel.

Steel, a first month now.

Yeah.

So basically, the longer you shut down the Strait of Hormuz, the more impacts you're gonna see on the supply chain. And they're becoming much more apparent in the U.S., hence the inflation numbers that were much stronger than expected this morning.

Absolutely. And it's affecting definitely the supply chain.

To put things in perspective, yes. And if you want to look how bad it is right now, it's the most stressed supply chain in the U.S. that we've seen since the COVID recession. So, it is a big deal. And you know what happened here, inflation actually surged at a higher level than expected. So, keep this in mind. Inflation is not, we're not out of the woods on inflation. So, the Central Bank might surprise us with a rate hike. So, that's the reason why markets will have to tread more carefully in the months ahead.

Okay. And what about the closing of the gap with China? I know you love to have a slide on China so.

Yeah, well, it's the AI stuff. So, there's a lot of excitement about, you know, high profile IPOs that are coming into the market.

This Friday.

Related to AI. And I just want to put things in perspective here, Nancy. I understand it's an industrial revolution. I get that. But unlike 2000, the U.S. doesn't have the monopoly on the new technology. Let me explain. Back in 2023, the U.S. had a comfortable lead about AI model performance. But China is using an open-source model to try to catch up to the U.S. and they've been able to close the gap. More importantly, also, or also China is able to offer these AI models at one seventh of the cost that you have to pay for the U.S. So, I'm just saying here.

There's competition.

There's a competitive environment so don't believe that the Americans, you know, dominate the way they did back in 2000. There are serious considerations to be made here about what's the profit outlook of these U.S. corporations if they have a competitor that's just that good and much cheaper to deploy. So, that will be the important test for markets in the weeks ahead as whether these profit expectations are realistic or not.

And that's why, I mean, our listeners need to talk to their advisors and read the research before deciding to invest because yes, you could be trying to buy the IPO on Friday, but there's also other ways to invest in this trend, in this AI movement without having to actually buy a certain stock.

You're so right. What we do know with conviction is the AI revolution is very energy intensive.

Yes.

As it turns out, there's a lot of energy in Canada and we're actually allowed to deploy it now under the new electricity strategy. So, there's all a bunch of ways that you can play it directly, buying these companies directly, or indirectly. So yes, I do believe it's an AI revolution. But, you know, sometimes, you know, there can be some fraud and yes, there's profit expectations down the road, but we have to play it according to our risk tolerance at this point in time.

Definitely. So, thank you very much Stéfane. I again invite you to talk to your advisors, read the research to make sure that whatever you choose in terms of segments does fit your risk profile. It was amazing doing this little mission today, you and I, and I really appreciate doing this. If you are going on vacation, please take the time to rest and I'll see you in a month.

Thank you.

5 • 4 • 3 Market Outlook

5 minutes, 4 graphs, 3 key takeaways! Discover a fresh focused quarterly review of markets, the economy and investments with expert Louis Lajoie from our CIO Office.

Hello, everyone. Today, June 12, I’m going to briefly look back on the investment backdrop: what is reassuring, what is perhaps a bit concerning, and what we’re going to be monitoring going forward.

But before we do so, let’s just go back to where we were three months ago, at the time of the last webcast, which was just at the beginning of one of the worst energy crises in modern times. Back then, there were essentially two prevailing narratives: either oil prices were headed to $200 a barrel, in which case we would have a global recession, or there would be a swift resolution allowing prices to go back to where they were. What actually happened? Something in between, where in the absence of a resolution, oil markets, nonetheless, found somewhat of an equilibrium, thanks to greater usage of some pipelines, the fact that the respective blockades are slightly permeable, and, most importantly, the substantial use of global oil reserves, which, by definition, means that this balance is temporary. We’re going to have to see a greater pickup in maritime activity in the Persian Gulf very soon. But regardless, in any event, what has become clear now is that energy prices are not going to go back to their previous lows. They’re going to remain higher.

The good news is that we’re seeing this is not preventing equity markets from renewing with an upward trend, which has been the story in the second quarter, as you can see here. And this rebound in stock prices has not been driven entirely by hope. It’s actually been driven by substantial and sustained earnings growth around the world, with earnings growth actually stronger than the increase in stock prices since the beginning of the year. That is, in part, reflecting substantial earnings gains for a few stocks involved in semiconductor manufacturing, notably in emerging markets.

But globally speaking, it remains true that economic activity has remained rather positive, with, for instance, the U.S. Economic Surprise Index at its highest level since 2024. That is also good news. But it also raises questions about the future path of inflation, because we all know that inflation reacts with a lag to growth. We saw an extreme case of that in 2021 and then the inflation surge in 2022. That has not been the case in the last two years, most likely because, over that period, the labour market was much more balanced, and that remains the case for now. And so that is why this is a risk to us, not a view.

What’s clear, though, is that markets are going to be paying a lot of attention to what the U.S. Federal Reserve is about to do against this rather complex backdrop, especially since we are going to be facing, for the first time in eight years, a new Fed chair, Mr. Warsh. Just three months ago, markets thought that he would probably be able to cut rates slightly. But lately, markets have actually been discounting perhaps a few rate hikes going forward. We’ll have to see. But even if rate hikes actually do happen, in our mind, this is not necessarily a problem, in the sense that it is much better to have roughly neutral monetary policy than perhaps overly accommodative interest rates, which would only create a bigger inflation problem down the road. But if we were eventually to talk about restrictive monetary policy, that would be a different discussion. And that is the risk we’re going to be monitoring, but that is not the expectation as we speak.

Three takeaways for you today. Essentially, again, the worst has been avoided and is likely to continue to be avoided, even though we don’t expect perfect stability here in the Persian Gulf. That is why we’ll have to keep an eye on inflation, which is definitely not on track to go back to the 2% target, something we haven’t seen in just over five years now in the U.S. We’ll have to see how Mr. Warsh navigates all of this. But globally speaking, we don’t expect any massive changes in global trends, which are rather positive for equity markets, as we have seen. But we must remain vigilant here, because the fact of the matter is that the range of outcomes, the range of uncertainty, remains exceptionally large.

That’s it for today. Thank you for listening. We’ll talk again in September. Have a great summer, everyone.

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