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MacDougall Wealth Management Group Videos

February 13 2025

Intro

Jared: Welcome to the Tax Talk Podcast. On today's episode, I have Kit Richmond. Kit is here to discuss everything IPPs (Individual Pension Plans).

So, if you are a small business owner with a significant salary and are at least 40 years old, this is the episode you are going to want to watch.

Kit is going to unpack this topic in detail with me, and we will provide you with the information you need to make informed decisions to help you build that pension.

 

Overview of Episode

Jared: Kit Richmond is a Wealth Advisor and Portfolio Manager at the McDougall Wealth Management Group with National Bank Financial. Their team partners with entrepreneurs, professionals, business owners, and family farms in their goal to continue wealth creation, enable protection, and structure transition. The McDougall team offers a unique approach to wealth management with expertise and personal service to guide you and your family.

Kit, I just want to thank you for taking some time out of your busy schedule to hop on the podcast with me today.

Kit: Thanks a lot, Jared, really appreciate it.

Jared: Excellent. So, we are diving into a topic that seems to be coming up with my clients on a more regular basis, and that is individual pension plans. I figured Kit would be a good resource on this, and I'm looking forward to the insight that he can provide to you today.

 

What is an IPP?

Kit: So, let's start with the most basic question: What is an Individual Pension Plan, or an IPP?

An IPP, Individual Pension Plan, is essentially a defined benefit plan that is typically sponsored by a corporation. There are some advantages under the Income Tax Act in doing so. It's similar to an RRSP in certain senses but has specific advantages that might apply to some of the listeners of this podcast.

 

Setting up an IPP

Jared: So, in regards to that, is it something that someone, you know, if they've got a small business corporation, they could set up themselves? Do they need to speak to you, or is there another advisor that needs to be involved with this? How does that come about?

Kit: Good question. Generally, an IPP is set up with three different collaborating professionals and the business owner or professional service provider who is the client.

The first one is an accountant, which makes sense for most things, right? The second is an actuarial team because it is a pension plan regulated under the CRA, which requires certain disclosures every year and a triennial review every three years. The third is a Wealth Advisor or wealth advisory team, as you'll need to invest the funds within the pension plan.

Jared: So, similar to other investment opportunities that people might be looking into, it's important to get the right people on your team to ensure you're setting up a proper plan that benefits you. Getting these individuals on your team to get this pension plan in place is crucial if it's an option for you in your business.

Kit: Right, and I think the first step is to ask your accountant or wealth advisor, or one that you know offers this service, if an IPP is right for you. There are some costs involved, but the advantages generally outweigh the costs if it fits for you and your family. So, it's essential to ask your accountant or wealth advisor, who usually have contacts in the actuarial world to facilitate this.

Jared: Yeah, generally speaking, whenever I have clients come into my office, and I'm guessing it's the same for you, they ask if a particular plan or idea makes sense for them. The general discussion usually starts with "it depends," because we need to get into the details to determine if it is beneficial for you. Maybe the IPP is perfect for you, or perhaps it's not the best option, so having that discussion before jumping into something is crucial for getting the best bang for your buck in the long run.

Kit: Exactly, and that depends on family dynamics, whether you're an incorporated business or not, and several other factors. Age is actually a significant factor for IPPs because the advantages accumulate as you get older. We'll probably discuss who the ideal candidate is next, right?

Jared: For sure. Now that we've understood what an IPP is, who can open one?

 

The ideal IPP candidate

Jared: What is the ideal candidate for an IPP? Is there a certain type of business owner we're looking to gear this towards? Some clients have mentioned it as a potential retirement vehicle. Are there other options, and who should consider this plan?

Kit: The first thing we look for is age. It doesn't make sense mathematically to do an IPP versus RRSPs or maybe Hold Co investing until you're 40. The other important question is whether they have excess capacity to contribute to savings. If they can't make the normal registered savings or contributions to a Hold Co, it doesn't make any sense to do an IPP. You must be committed to making those excess savings. Having a corporation is crucial because the corporation needs to sponsor the IPP. In Alberta, contributions to the IPP are not mandatory; they are optional contributions by the corporation.

Jared: So, you need to reach a point in life where you are somewhat established and in an age bracket where the math makes sense. You should be able to commit to this for the long term, including generational planning.

Kit: Exactly. The conversation needs to be around whether the business setup is something you're going to want for the foreseeable future. For example, if you're a medical professional with a PC setup that you'll maintain for 10, 20, 25 years, it makes sense to sponsor the IPP through that. You need to consider whether this is a permanent setup.

Jared: Similar to considering a permanent life insurance policy, you want to plan not just for the next 5-10 years but beyond that. It's crucial to have the right team to play out different scenarios that might arise.

Kit: Absolutely, the conversation has to be around whether this is the setup you intend to have long-term in your work. One significant benefit is that you can name beneficiaries not directly involved in the corporation, like spouses.

Jared: It's good to discuss the annual salary needed to make this work. Is there a specific figure that makes the mathematics work for an IPP?

Kit: There's the salary component and the excess cash building up in the corporation. The IPP is determined on T4 income, just like normal pension contributions and RSP room, which maxes out in the low $30,000s. The IPP crosses over at age 40 and can be up to 30% of your income, particularly beneficial in six-figure incomes. This allows you to contribute $10,000-$20,000 more per year using corporate dollars, which is different from personal dollars.

Jared: If you're well-established and drawing a consistent salary, maxing out RRSPs, and based on discussions with your accountant and wealth advisor, an IPP could be a strategy to put away more for retirement and generational planning.

Kit: Yes, you can accelerate your savings using corporate dollars, which is beneficial. There's also creditor protection and other benefits. If you're interested, review your T4 income for the last 5-10 years. You can qualify some RRSPs to roll into the IPP, giving you more advantages.

Jared: If someone primarily paid themselves through dividends, does that mean the IPP option has passed for them?

Kit: There's still time, especially if you're accruing a lot of cash within the company and paying for personal expenses with T4 income. It's essential to use that income to your benefit. Situations change, and planning needs to be revisited to ensure it still meets your needs and goals. If necessary, there are options to get out of an IPP, like purchasing an annuity or pushing it into an RRSP and LIRA. It can also exist as its own entity, paying out a pension even after the corporation is gone.

Jared: Planning is always subject to change. Does the IPP offer options to get out if circumstances change?

Kit: Yes, you can purchase an annuity or roll it into an RRSP and LIRA. It's not final; you have options, and it can exist independently of the sponsoring corporation. It's good to have creditor protection, ensuring your asset is safe, especially if you've built up significant value over the years.

Jared: The ultimate purpose of the IPP is to provide cash flow for your lifestyle, ensuring you're okay no matter what happens to the business. So, how is the IPP funded?

 

Funding an IPP

Jared: How is the IPP funded? Are there specific methods, and does it involve both the individual and the corporation contributing?

Kit: It's primarily funded through the corporation with tax-deductible payments. Since it is a registered pension plan with the CRA, certain return metrics are reviewed every three years. If returns are moderate, you can top up your contributions. However, if returns are high, additional contributions may not be allowed.

Jared: So, it's funded with after-tax dollars from the corporation, which is beneficial.

Kit: Yes, it's advantageous as it uses lower tax rate corporate dollars. This helps build retirement pensions. Other options include continuing with salaries and contributing to RRSPs, but this depends on where you are financially during retirement.

Jared: If the IPP survives the corporation, is it protected from creditors and kept separate from corporate assets?

Kit: Absolutely, it's a distinct entity. You can invest in various securities just like RRSPs without the active vs. passive income rules in corporations. This keeps your retirement funds separate and secure.

Jared: So, the IPP acts as a separate retirement vehicle funded by the business but owned by you, protecting you from creditor claims and possibly aiding in tax planning for selling the business.

Kit: Correct. It allows income splitting and offers long-term benefits for you and your family. It’s a great way to secure your lifestyle and plan for the future.

Jared: Income splitting within the family is highly beneficial for tax purposes. Are there opportunities for the second generation to benefit from the IPP?

Kit: Yes, but generally, this discussion happens after the primary beneficiaries have been drawing from it for some time. It ensures that your retirement years are well-established before passing it on to the next generation.

Jared: And the growth within the IPP is tax-deferred, right?

Kit: Indeed, it's like an RRSP but with a different tax rate, as you know. This tax-deferred growth over 30-40 years can significantly impact your retirement funds.

Jared: If the corporation ceases, can the IPP continue independently?

Kit: Yes, the IPP can exist as its own entity, avoiding unnecessary costs of maintaining a corporation. Though annual filings are required, the benefits of higher contributions make it worthwhile. Over time, an IPP can double the assets compared to a traditional RRSP, significantly impacting your retirement lifestyle.

Jared: That’s fascinating. Now, if I open an IPP, are there any limitations on the investments I can put into it?

Kit: Any investments eligible for a TFSA or RRSP are also eligible for an IPP. The wealth management team will guide you through different philosophies and setups. The key benefit is that there are no tax consequences when changing your portfolio composition over time.

 

Investment limitations

Jared: Is there any limitation on the investments that I can put into it, or is it fairly open-ended similar to maybe a TFSA or RRSP in the type of underlying investments that are in there? Do I have a choice over that? Is that something I work with you and your team to determine? How does that transpire?

Kit: Anything that is in a TFSA or an RRSP eligible would also be eligible for an IPP. The wealth management team that you're dealing with will have different philosophies around what that looks like, so I can't speak to other setups, but I know what ours are, and they are similar to our non-registered accounts or other corporate accounts. The key is there are no tax consequences, which is quite helpful in terms of changing portfolio composition over time. There are no tax considerations when you're doing that, which gives us flexibility to manage that over the years.

Jared: Well, that makes sense. I think it's always important to understand because the general consensus out there is that a tax-free savings account is a savings account, but in fact, it can be all sorts of different investment types that you can put into that particular investment vehicle. Similarly speaking with the RRSP or the IPP, maybe when you're getting this set up in your early 40s, you can take on a bit more risk in your younger years. Then, as the IPP gets further down the road, you might translate those into less risky assets to ensure you're preserving some of that capital into those retirement years. Is that something people do?

Kit: Some people do that. I think a more fundamental question is asking what is risk. For us and our team, risk really is the possibility of destruction of capital, not the volatility of day-to-day. The tax-free savings account really should have been named the tax-free investment account because the power is in compounding over longer periods of time on an after-tax basis.

Jared: I agree because as we get closer to distribution, we want to have a certain amount that does not change based on market fluctuations. For example, Jared is set up for the next two or three years with the agreed amount, and there’s no situation where you have to resort to drastic measures because the IPP didn't perform well.

Kit: Absolutely. When you get to that point in life, you've worked hard, and it’s emotional to move on from the business you've poured decades into. When you're finally able to move on to the next adventure in life, you want to make sure those hard-earned dollars are secure. The first rule of Warren Buffett is to not lose any money, and the second rule is to remember the first.

Jared: Exactly. If you're constantly trying to time the market, you end up doing the opposite. You buy high, sell low, and eventually have no capital left. Real investing is about preserving capital.

Kit: Absolutely. An IPP is a great vehicle for accelerating savings and providing certainty for retirement. It's a tough emotional period when you stop practicing or sell the business, and having the financial piece of your life set up is powerful.

Jared: Yes, it gives you the option to dive into another passion, like volunteering or a new project, without worrying about finances. It’s rewarding to take the passion from one place to another without financial stress.

Kit: You might get involved in another business in an advisory role or help a startup, knowing your lifestyle needs are taken care of.

 

After Retirement

Jared: So what happens to my IPP in retirement? What are my options? Does it stay as an IPP through my retirement years? Do I have options to do other things with it? How does that play out?

Kit: The first option is to keep it as a pension, so it operates as a pension for you subject to CRA rules. You can take out a certain amount, and it can go to the spouse as the main beneficiary. The second is you can purchase an annuity, depending on rates and such. Some might prefer owning a portfolio and seeing it go up and down but overall up over a long time, rather than the certainty of an annuity. The third option is transferring to registered or locked-in plans, which you can work through.

Jared: That makes sense. Generally speaking, as long as you’re moving it within the registered side, there shouldn’t be any adverse tax impacts, right?

Kit: Correct, and it gives you flexibility to draw it down quicker if, for example, your health is a concern. There’s an unlocking you can do for locked-in plans, which might be more accelerated.

Jared: Does the unlocking work similarly to the LIRA, or is there an accelerated option?

Kit: With an LIRA, you can unlock 50% and put it into an RRSP, which has no withdrawal limitations, although you still pay tax. With a LIF, you have a maximum withdrawal limit to adhere to.

Jared: That’s more of a tax planning discussion with clients if there’s a health or other situation that accelerates it. If everything's fine, keep it in the IPP and move on.

Kit: Exactly. For example, health concerns can pop up unexpectedly, so it’s good to know your options and that you’re not stuck with the IPP forever.

Jared: If I pass away, does the IPP transfer at cost to my spouse?

Kit: Yes, there’s a rollover to the beneficiary. There's also the option for second-generation planning, which is more complicated but available.

Jared: Would you involve second-generation planning if the corporation was intended to keep going and transition to a child?

Kit: Yes, if the child buys the business from the parents, the parents keep their IPP separate and get paid over time. The child could start their own if they prefer.

Jared: The IPP stays tied to the original owner, so new owners can set up their own. This could be a strategy to move the business to kids, easing cash flow for the transition.

Kit: Absolutely. This gives flexibility and patience in selling the business, whether to kids or a third party, without the pressure to maximize immediately.

Jared: Flexibility helps with unexpected changes in the business environment. Would you prefer cash or a business that might not perform as well in the future?

Kit: That’s right. Sometimes, it’s better to have cash. In cases where multiple children inherit the business, it might be problematic if only one is interested.

Jared: The IPP can help avoid difficult family dynamics, ensuring financial security for the original owners while giving kids the option without pressure.

Kit: Exactly. It allows for smooth transitions and avoids forced sales due to health issues or other emergencies.

Jared: Preserving family relationships is crucial during transitions. Even if maximizing returns is important, maintaining harmony should be a priority.

Kit: Often, one spouse prioritizes family harmony. While transferring assets is important, sometimes relationships matter more.

 

Wrapping it all up

Jared: Wrapping it all up, do you have any final thoughts on IPPs that we didn't touch on and you think would be important for the audience to hear?

Kit: Just as a summary, IPPs are a tool that not a lot of people know about. Especially for professionals and business owners given the current tax structure and other economic factors, they are worth considering to confirm and protect your lifestyle for the future while being effective going forward.

Jared: I completely agree. I had some knowledge going into this, but this conversation has opened my eyes to new opportunities for certain clients, especially in the niche of business transitions. The transition piece was particularly enlightening and useful for many clients.

Kit: Absolutely. The key is to avoid getting stuck in a corner, whether with an IPP or another tool. Limiting your options can have long-term implications, both before and during retirement.

Jared: Exactly. Kit, thank you so much for joining me on the podcast. For anyone in the audience who wants to reach out to you, what's the best way?

Kit: You can find me online as a member of the McDougall Wealth Management Group with National Bank Financial in Red Deer. Alternatively, you can contact Jared, and he can forward my contact information. We have clients all over Alberta, so the location isn't a barrier. We really pride ourselves on building relationships with our clients and helping them achieve their goals.

Jared: Excellent. Thank you again, Kit. I really appreciate it. Once again, this is Jared Palon for the Tax Talk podcast. Thanks for listening, and we'll see you on the next episode. Take care!

July 5  2021

Economic news

Economic Impact

To keep you informed and stimulate your thinking, Stéfane Marion and Nancy Paquet take a look at economic news and share their perspectives in our monthly informative videos.

Welcome to Economic Impact. We are March 18, 2026. Stéfane, thank you for being here today.

Nice being here.

Yes. So, before we start, I think it's important to note that the last time we spoke, which was a couple of weeks ago, the events in Venezuela had just occurred. And today, we are faced with a conflict in the Middle East that is also impacting the discussions we're going to have today. So, first and foremost, I want to say that our feelings are with those populations that are touched by this conflict. But also, it's important for us to understand what will it mean for our Canadian investors who are listening to this podcast today.

Yeah, we forget how lucky we are being far from.

Absolutely.

Armed conflicts, right? It's a human tragedy. But to put things in perspective, we're going to speak to an oil price shock. It is the first one, almost day-to-day since the one that was incurred in 2022.

Yeah it was February.

February 2022, Ukraine invasion. So, right now as we speak now today, because I don't know what we'll end today, so we're at about $100 a barrel. 2022, we went as high as $130 a barrel. Again, this is expressed in 2026 dollars Nancy.

So, we can actually compare.

Yeah, so if you want to put some perspective on what the oil shock of the 1970s looked like, it was $160. However, this oil shock emanating from the Middle East is the first one since 1990-91, and it's impacting the Strait of Hormuz. We don't fully understand how the global supply chain will be impacted. All I can say at this point in time, $100 may not be recessionary, but it will have an impact on growth in the coming quarters and earnings expectations.

Absolutely. And it's important also to put that in context because we're not always starting from the same base, right? So, help us understand. So, you're right, when economists say "I know for sure what the impact". No, it depends where you are in the cycle. So, back in 2022 when the oil price hit, inflation was already at 8.5%. So, the Fed had no choice. They had to react to this by starting a monetary tightening campaign that took us all the way through 2023.

We all remember.

Long-term rates also increased. The good news from a cyclical perspective is that this oil shock is hitting when inflation is around 2.5%. So, I don't foresee an aggressive tightening cycle because of it. But it remains to be seen what type of pasture, how long the war will last and the impact that we'll see also on financial markets. So, but so far.

So good. And we saw this morning that Bank of Canada did not move the rates. We're waiting to see for the United States this afternoon. But, you're fairly confident that they won't move.

Oh, they won't, they're not going to move out because back in 2022, job creation in the U.S. was averaging roughly 400,000 people a month. Right now, 0, Nancy, for the past six months. The unemployment is at 3.4%, now it's at 4.4%. The Fed has a dual mandate. They're not going to hike at least in the first half of this year. We'll see the second half because don't forget, we don't fully understand the potential pass through from previous tariffs that were announced by the White House. And they're still in the protectionist agenda emanating from the White House, so we have to see on inflation. The U.S. is more uncertain.

And what's the impact on the markets?

Well, I'll give you a combination of rate hikes with an oil shock like 2022. Not good for markets. After three months, you were down 5.1% back then and after 12 months you're down 18%. There was a lot of volatility. You had to pick where you were going to invest. After three months in 2022, the Canadian market was one of the only ones that were up. Year to date, we're at 3.1%. We're again showing some resilience. The U.S. is down. Again, this is not big correction, but I just want to speak that, you know, even after three months, it was a very small correction, but it got worse because of the combination of higher oil prices, but also a very aggressive tightening campaign. We're not there yet, but we'll see what the impact on the global supply chain will be from shutting down the Strait of Hormuz, which is more than just crude oil, right?

Definitely. And it's. Oh my gosh.

LNG.

There you go. Thank you.

Sulfur.

Sulfur. That's was, that's the real one.

Helium.

Yes. And this did not exist back then, so those are all new importations.

You forgot a key one. Aluminum.

Aluminum, oh.

That's a big deal. That wasn't there back in the 1990s. So, that's the manufacturing supply chain being impacted more significantly than the 2022 oil shocks. So, people that say exactly, they know what's going to happen. We don't know. We don't fully understand. It really depends on how long the Strait of Hormuz is shut down.

And if we go to our traditional total return graph.

Yes.

How do we compare? We're still.

Still true, we're still doing well. This is a Canadian dollar total return. So, emerging markets are still up. We're resilient and the reason we're holding up so well, Nancy, has to do with the nature of our trade balance. And what it shows here is that compared, if you compare the Canadian dollar to the rest of the other reserve currencies, we are the country that runs the highest energy trade surplus.

And our oil production has improved. Put that again in context for us.

So, people will say, "Okay, are we running a higher trade surplus just because prices are increasing?". Of course, some of that is true. But people forget that since 2022, despite the fact that we've added very little infrastructure, there's been some innovation in the pipeline industry that has allowed Canada to go from 4.8 million barrels a day to roughly, where are we here, 2026, almost 6 million barrels a day. So, we've added more than 1,000,000 barrels a day. Again, yes, TMX was opened recently, we went from 300 to 800,000 barrels a day, but.

Still, there's innovation.

Innovation in the existing pipelines going to the U.S. means that we're shipping more. So again, people have the perception maybe it's not such a bad thing to be an energy superpower and being able to have the allies. And I think Ottawa is having, you know, maybe changing its mindset perhaps on that one. We'll see in a second half of this year.

And the last conversation we had, one of the themes was gold. So, can you update us on gold?

Okay. So yes, you're right. S&P TSX resilient because of oil and gas, but gold is important because the market cap of gold stocks, as we showed last month, was just as important as the energy stocks. So, in 2022, I have bad news for you, Nancy. The U.S. dollar shot up because of the Fed tightening and gold prices were down 20%. Now, will history repeat itself in this cycle? I'm not so sure. I'm more confident that the U.S. dollar will not appreciate because I'm sure people are more suspicious about the White House. They're unlikely to buy U.S. Treasuries as aggressively as they did back in 2022. So, year to date, all I can say is gold prices are actually behaving a little bit better than it was in 2022. We'll see in the coming months. But, I still think that the Canadian dollar will be more resilient because less people are inclined to buy U.S. Treasuries, so I don't think we'll have a repetition of what we saw in 2022.

And that's good. And again, last conversation we had, we were looking at our Canadian population, so I don't think fresh from the press, you don't have good news for us.

So, even though we've shown some resilience on the stock market. Well again this year the stock market is doing better than the economy and the primary reason is that our population is contracting. So, this came out this morning by the way. You know, last quarter people said that might be the worst that we'll see contraction of 80,000 people on the quarter. No, this quarter was 100,000 people. So, on a year over year basis, believe it or not, we're down 100,000 people. It's not much because we have 41 million population. It's 0.2%, but yet it's the first annual decline in Canada's population since the Confederation in 1867. Yeah.

And we can understand why. I mean we slowed down the immigration, our population is getting older. So, in the short term it might not be so bad because we had housing problems last year as you know. But definitely we'll have to make sure that we inverse this so that the industry, the entrepreneurs really have what they need to produce.

I think Ottawa needs to optimize its immigration policy. I think this is a bit too aggressive. We'll see in the months ahead. So far it's mostly hitting the student population because permanent immigrants, they were actually up 80,000 on the quarter. So, not so bad for industries, but for some universities etcetera, colleges, it's another story. So, it's not overall bad in every facet of the immigration policy but I still think this is a little bit too aggressive. So. And that's putting downward pressure on the housing market. But, the silver lining is that if your population's not growing, your inflationary pressures are not as bad, right?

Yeah, there's always a balance somewhere. And so, tell us about the inflation.

Below target. We're below 2%. There are only a few countries like that. Imagine that. We're a big energy producer with inflation below 2%. Yes, there were some policy impacts on all of this, but all I'm saying, Nancy, as the central bank attempts to navigate the oil shock, at least in Canada, we have a little bit more leeway to be patient compared to the U.S., which is at 2.4%. Nonetheless, the critical part is to understand what the Strait of Hormuz will mean to the global supply chain. Profit expectations. Remember what we said last month. People are so optimistic.

Double digits everywhere.

I think downward earnings revision is possible. So, be prepared for volatility in the coming weeks and coming months.

Okay, well, thank you so much, Stéfane. And if you are worried about volatility or, you know, what's the impact on this on your portfolio, well you know you have the chance to call your advisor and see what this means in your reality, because emotions and a three-month period are never a good guide. So, I invite you to contact your trusted advisor to have your health check, financial health check. So again, thank you Stéfane. Thank you to all of you and we'll see you next month.

 

5 • 4 • 3 Market Outlook

5 minutes, 4 graphs, 3 key takeaways! Discover a fresh focused quarterly review of markets, the economy and investments with expert Louis Lajoie from our CIO Office.

Hello everyone. Today, March 16. I'm going to try to quickly review a quarter during which a lot has happened, and a lot is still happening as we speak.

Without further ado, I think the best way to summarize the last few weeks is just to point out that we've essentially witnessed a substantial and rapid increase in the pace of change across multiple fronts. Specifically on the geopolitical front with what's going on in Iran as we speak, but also under the technological front with ongoing advances in AI, which have been raising a lot of questions for a lot of businesses. From a high-level point of view, the consequence of all of this is to raise uncertainty at a new scale. And we should probably get used to that because we used to be talking about uncertainty from a cyclical point of view. But nowadays, we believe that uncertainty has become structural. And again, this raises a lot of questions. But for today, I think we should just take some time to look at what the market has been telling us over the last year in terms of consequences. And the market has been telling us essentially three things, one of which being that we should expect bouts of volatility as we have seen last year during the tariff tantrum, but as we're seeing more recently. But beyond this volatility, we are still witnessing a pretty good resilience on the part of markets, which goes to show that beyond these shocks, economic activity is still somewhat moving forward, although this is only true if you're adequately diversified because within the equity investment universe, we are seeing substantial divergence across sectors, but also across geographies. For instance, U.S. equities are still lagging, essentially flat since last October, whereas you're seeing better gains elsewhere, although this gap has narrowed recently, which again goes to show that volatility is also being felt within the equity investment universe. And the reason why U.S. equities have been doing a little better recently is that they're less sensitive to rising energy prices, as we are witnessing. And for good reasons, because there's just no more important choke point for energy markets than the infamous Strait of Hormuz, which is practically closed as we speak. Nevertheless, oil prices have not increased as much as what we saw during the Russian invasion of Ukraine in early 2022. And most importantly, you're seeing that markets are treating this situation as being partly temporary, in the sense that futures prices—so the price for a barrel of oil 12 months from now—have increased. There are long-term consequences here, but just not as much as you're seeing for more short-term prices, which is reasonable in the sense that the current situation is just unsustainable for all parties involved. We'll have to monitor this because unfortunately the range of scenarios here is still pretty wide. But for today, what I would emphasize is that there are reasons to believe that we're not going to be repeating what we saw in 2022, which many of you will remember as a pretty challenging year for both equities and bonds. Because back then, you have to remember that just before the Russian invasion of Ukraine, we were already seeing leading economic indicators pointing towards a deceleration in economic activity. Whereas today, it's rather the opposite, in the sense that leading indicators are pointing to a cyclical upturn, which we were starting to see recently, but which is arguably, and most definitely, more at risk here. Let's be clear, given that we're going to be seeing inflation be much higher than we hoped before this Iran situation emerged.

Three takeaways for today. From a high-level point of view, it's not complicated here. We are undergoing a period of profound and vast changes, which creates a lot of uncertainty, which makes markets quite volatile, especially within the equity market universe. If you're adequately diversified here, the damage is pretty limited. And when you look at it, there are reasons to believe that this combination—volatility, resilience, and divergence—will remain the story over the next few months. Although the resilience part will be put to the test here, because risks around the scenario have undeniably increased given the rise in energy prices and global commodity prices, and the consequences for inflation. 

That's it for today. Thank you for listening and we will talk again in June. Have a great spring everyone. 

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Savings and investments
Discover our investment options that will help you realize your projects or prepare for the unexpected

Economic analysis

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Weekly Economic Watch

This publication keeps you posted on a wide range of economic and financial indicators affecting the local, North American and global markets. It includes brief commentaries on economic and financial news items.

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Vision

Looking for reliable financial analysis? The Economics and Strategy Group provide a detailed report on interest rates, bonds, the stock market and portfolio strategy.

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Monthly Economic Monitor

Explore a regional overview with our monthly monitors covering Canada, the United States and the world, each offering forecasts tailored to its area's economic outlook.

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Monthly Equity Monitor

Experts from National Bank summarize the current state of stock markets globally in this monthly report.

Investment strategy

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Investment Strategy

This quarterly publication informs you of global economic conditions, asset allocation recommendations and economic forecasts.

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Asset Allocation Strategy

What’s moving in the financial market and how does that impact your investments? National Bank Investments provides a portfolio strategy across asset classes.

Federal and provincial budgets 

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Federal Budget

Learn how the Canadian Government plans to execute the annual economic agenda in this year's federal budget.

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Alberta Budget

Our experts examine your province's budget and the financial updates related to it.

Guides and tools

Investing Guide - essential advice for your financial health.

Investing Guide

This reference guide contains a wealth of practical information and tools to help you plan your projects. Download it to your desktop to enjoy all the features.

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Tax and Investment Guide

Find everything you will need to successfully file your taxes in our comprehensive tax and investment guide.

Myths and realities by National Bank Investments.

Myths and Realities

Looking for reliable financial analysis? The CIO Office of National Bank Investments provides a detailed report on interest rates, bonds, the stock market and portfolio strategy.

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Quick Facts

Find the amounts of the different government plans (CPP, QPP, OAS), the TFSA, RRSP and RESP contribution limits, and the link to the different tax tables.

Fraud prevention

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Find out how to protect yourself against fraud.

Read our tips

Contact us

Get contact information for our team members and find out where our offices are.