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is everyone's got a big plan when they come in, then when they get in, they realize everything's a mess and they can't do any of the things they wanted to do in the first place. Um, so there's

a risk of that. But generally, what he's been saying coming into this is he wants a more narrow focus from the central bank in the US.

What does that mean? I guess he thinks that means if with a focus on inflation

and less uh focus on what's going on with the economy and employment and things like that. Um,

you know, I don't know if you watch much of that the the interaction between him and Elizabeth Warren. It was uh you know

I I I didn't I didn't like the connection either way from either one of them. um just because I think if you want a someone sitting in that chair,

you want complete honesty and um I certainly didn't get that from Marsh. Um so

generally though he said lower interest rates but he wants to shrink the balance sheet. So you know those two things are

conflicting. Um you want to lower interest rates to make uh the economy better but you also want to shrink the balance sheet so it's going to make less

money supply. So I think those two things offset each other and uh so I think we'll have to wait and see what

happens but generally I would say the likelihood of rates going down is quite

high if he gets in. Um and then as for global liquidity and you know that's something we track quite closely. Um

yeah I think it the verdict is out until he's got there. Um but certainly it would be a different type of leadership.

uh probably not as much information as PAL gives in his meetings and maybe not as much forward guidance. So uh certainly it would be a change of tone

and something we need to pay attention to as we move ahead.

Okay. Another interesting thing, the tariff refund portal opens on Monday. Um if refunds do start flowing, will the

businesses keep the benefits or will consumers actually fill it through lower prices? I mean do we get a share?

probably not.

Uh I would think that uh yeah, I'd say it's unlikely. Uh but I'd say the the

likely positive from it is we won't see price increases.

Um and so maybe it stamps out some of the potential inflationary pressures that are coming from what's happening in the world right now. So maybe they

negate each other. you knowund there's 166 billion that could be recouped from

what I've read 130 billion has already been requested um so uh if that actually flows back into the companies I think it

gives them a little bit of room to not increase pricing pressure in a number of places so maybe as I say the combination of things relieves some of the pressure

on the consumer and if you get worse cutting rates that's going to take some of the pressure off the consumer as well um where the you know the the shrinking

the balance sheet side of the federal reserve is uh more economic related less consumer focused so you may get you may

get a slight relief uh from from the combination of those two things in the US.

Yeah. Uh so over to the markets earnings releases seem to be back in the focus this past week.

Um there was a packed reporting calendar. Which releases stood out you know the most for you?

Yeah. So, I think that the continued focus is on AI. And so, if you listen to

any of the releases, that's what it's about. Um, we had uh um Amazon come out and say they put 25

billion in um to uh uh their relationship with Anthropic, I believe.

And then we had Apple discuss their continued investment and Microsoft has committed to another 18 billion. Um so

you know I I think the the biggest standout is there is a tremendous amount of focus on that and as I look at this

and think about this um you know AI will play a major role in these corporations

and if you think about the jobs that it's impacting first it's really those big tech companies

um and the AI companies themselves have gone from build build but now because the system so smart they don't actually

need all those people so they're starting to lay off people. Um so I heard something today when I was

listening to a podcast just around um AI and they said last year was the first year I guess that information put out

into the world AI produced as much as humans and by 2028 AI will has produced as much

information as all of history uh from humans. So just the pace and evolution

in AI I think is continues to be what I see in these quarterlies. Um United Healthcare which is a stock we own they

had good earnings yesterday and so that was a positive. The stock moved up nicely and Intel's releasing earnings tonight which we'll pay attention to. Uh

but really from the quarterly calls so much attention is going towards AI and

something that I think is going to materially change a lot of businesses and I think you know we talked about this a few times where this is probably

going to help margins um but the offset is it's going to uh increase unemployment. So what's what's

where is the benefit? Where do you want to have exposure to it? And I think that is still the biggest theme over the next two years.

Yeah. Uh let's see the charts.

So we are recording this today. So anything that happens between now and next Thursday we will comment on then. So let's start off with this. This is net exports likely to fare better than net importers. So this is in

regards to uh oil oil products and natural gas. So obviously we didn't we haven't really talked about what's

happening in the Middle East in the start of our conversation here yet, but this is and continues to be a major driver for what's going to happen to

markets in the economy over the next quarter or two or even more depending on how long this lasts. But it's a great chart just to think about it. Next net

exporters. So if you look along the chart, the top here, this would be Saudi, this would be Russia. Um this would be Canada, Brazil, Australia,

Argentina, and then the US. And if you look down on the bottom, who's kind of most negatively impacted be um Korea,

South Africa, Japan would be kind of the main three. So, look, I think it's going to be important just to think about if

we have this continued conflict, what are the potential ramifications?

And, you know, Canada's in in a decent spot. I know we covered this last week and I think it's still a material spot for what could potentially happen from here.

Next one is China exports new passenger cars. And China exports new passenger cars with the electric and hybrid. So

this is huge and I do think that the US and China are really two key countries that are going to drive direction for

the economies going forward. I think this is a great chart just to see how much of a material rule and the pace at

which this is changing. So on the left hand side this is plug-in which is the um pink line. So plug-in hybrid. So that

would be cars that are both electric and gas and then just the pure electric. And I think when I look at this, this is

effectively a business that didn't exist in 2018 to the pace of the millions of cars that are going out every year now from China. And then on the other side,

which is pure electric plus hybrid and just the number of units that are getting produced every uh year from China. So, you know, I think as there's

so much attention going on with what's going on with oil and gas, I think there's this other piece that's being built, which is electric and hybrid, and

China's moving fast because their country is probably the most negatively impacted because they're big importers

of of of oil, and they're looking to find ways to build and produce uh vehicles that can get them around and get other people around um in a more

efficient manner without their reliance on energy.

And the last one on China, I know we talked about China a little bit over over the last couple of uh uh meetings and certainly from the year to year-to-

date perspective, I had a view that I think China can do quite well um over the next 6 to 18 months. And so um these

are some charts that that I pay attention to. So China nominal GDP composition by sector. Look, this is a great breakdown. And if we look at um

2005 to where we are today. So 2005 the blue line here is the services sector 42% of the 42.1% up to where we are

today which is close to 60. And I think this has been really one of the major drivers as we've been looking as their economy shifted from being major

exporters to a little bit more internally focused. And this is a chart that shows you that materially. So manufacturing is the blue or sorry is

the pink line here. So 32 to 24 and the other sectors a construction and mining haven't changed too too much but it's

really been services that's been the material change. So there's a lot of areas and companies out there that I think are attractive from an investment

perspective and this is just a view on how the Chinese economy has been evolving and something that I think we will need to continue to monitor because

it's a major growth story for the next um probably decade or more.

As always, the opinions expressed do not necessarily reflect those National Bank Financial. I prepared the reports to the best of my judgment. Everyone has their

own risk tolerance and should be addressed and thought about before they make an investment. You have any questions at any point. Please feel free to reach out to Eva or I and I'm happy

to address them. And uh that is the uh that is it uh for today in the charts.

Thank you, Ben.

Yeah, no problem. Uh what are we focusing on next week?

So next week we have um finally have the uh central banks meeting on Wednesday next week. So that'd be both US Canada and then I believe the ECBs on Thursday.

Um so before we'll get those numbers before our next meeting. Um we've seen inflation be a little bit softer in the

most recent uh release and so maybe get a better sense for how that's playing out. but primarily what's going on in the Middle East. I mean, it's on again,

off again, ceasefire, not ceasefire. Um,

and uh, Ukraine, Russia seems to be coming back into the picture a little bit as well. You're starting to see more numbers around how many people have died

in both countries. And so, focus be on inflation, interest rates on Wednesday,

but the continued conflict and how that's going to play out. And to your point about earnings, those will continue to come out as well over the next week and a half, 10 days. And so

we'd be watching that now in the US is is uh making its way through where Canada's earnings numbers would be in uh pretty more material next week.

Okay. Thank you everyone. Remember to visit, subscribe and follow us on YouTube and LinkedIn at hard investment group. The link to our daily financial

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