Well, good afternoon everybody. It's uh 1:00 on October 2nd.
We've made our way into the last quarter of the year and the final month of the fiscal year for the Canadian financial system. We're beginning preparations for that. September turned out to be a fantastic month—a rare outcome for us. Despite ongoing global uncertainty, including geopolitical tensions, fluctuating interest rates, and inflation concerns, the markets performed well and it was a notably successful period.
I'm providing this update as of 1:00 p.m. on October 2nd. Any developments occurring after this recording will be addressed next week. Today, I'm presenting alone, so I’ll go through the charts, share some expanded insights on current events, and discuss what may unfold in the near future. Let's start by reviewing today’s charts and then dive deeper into the details.
As always, the opinions expressed here do not necessarily reflect those of National Bank Financial. If you have any questions, please feel free to reach out to me or to your advisor. Over the course of this year, market activity has been particularly volatile. Early in the year, when President Trump took office, we saw significant market drawdowns as tariffs were implemented. Much of that volatility subsided as the year progressed, but has started to resurface with the introduction of additional tariffs and taxes.
One of the most noteworthy aspects of September was overall market sentiment. Sentiment can be measured in various ways—momentum, volatility, breadth (the number of stocks rising), risk appetite, speculation in options and futures, and investor surveys. According to our CIO office at National Bank Financial, many of these indicators suggest we’re hovering near all-time highs in several indices. Historically, such conditions lead to extreme optimism, as observed in February and March this year. However, sentiment has remained relatively neutral, around the 60 mark, despite markets reaching new highs. This suggests there could still be some upside potential.
Other key indicators include interest rates and inflation, which we frequently discuss. These factors help gauge whether the environment is favouring risk-on or risk-off strategies. Our team monitors cyclical conditions—such as the business cycle, US employment, manufacturing, and housing—which are currently neutral. Interestingly, global economic indicators are showing signs of improvement, including broader economic growth and positive surprises in manufacturing data.
On the financial markets side, we also track equities, bonds, currencies, and commodities to identify where capital is flowing. At present, we remain in a risk-on environment. Monetary conditions—like central bank policies and interest rates—are generally neutral, though there are some positive signals such as a rising global money supply (M2). Historically, this has been favourable for risk assets and equities.
Momentum indicators also show strong risk-on signals, with global equities outperforming bonds. However, such positive momentum, combined with low volatility, can sometimes precede market surprises. This prompts consideration of strategies such as taking profits in areas that have performed well (e.g., precious metals), adding long-duration government bonds, or using index insurance by purchasing puts.
From a risk-off perspective, valuations are high and sentiment remains neutral. Interest rates and inflation continue to be important factors. The Bank of Canada has jurisdiction over the short end of the yield curve, and over the past year, short-term rates have dropped by 151 basis points (1.51%), with the two-year rate down by 49 basis points (0.5%). Meanwhile, long-term yields (10- and 30-year) have actually increased, presenting an interesting scenario for the economy.
Last month, the Bank of Canada cut rates by 21 basis points, nearly the full 25 points expected. The two-year rate has also declined, and these will be key metrics to watch ahead of the next policy meeting on October 29th, which coincides with a US Federal Reserve meeting. In the United States, similar trends are visible, with the front end of the yield curve down 67 basis points over the past year due to last month’s central bank rate cut. We anticipate two additional rate cuts in the US.
Globally, Japanese bonds are noteworthy. After decades of near-zero interest rates, yields have begun to rise, with the 10-year Japanese bond doubling (up 82 basis points) over the past year. This has resulted in significant losses for investors holding long positions in Japanese bonds. We believe inflation remains subdued, the economy is slowing, but easier financial conditions should support growth in the coming quarter or two.
Again, these views are my own and don’t necessarily reflect those of National Bank Financial. If you have questions, please contact me or your advisor. Everyone has unique risk tolerances and perspectives.
Looking ahead, after a strong 12 to 18 months in most asset classes, I am considering where to trim holdings. Precious metals have performed well, driven largely by geopolitical factors, and may be an area to reduce exposure. Some growth sectors have also done well, so I’m seeking opportunities to reallocate. As always, our objective is to find undervalued companies—buying when others aren’t interested and selling as they gain popularity. This approach has served us well, and we are now looking to reposition, take profits, and explore new opportunities.
Thank you for tuning in to today’s charts and commentary. For further discussion or questions, please reach out to Eva or me. We appreciate your engagement—have a great weekend and I look forward to connecting again next week. Take care.
Hello everyone. Welcome to the weekly roundup. Today we will cover interest rates, policy shifts, and market sentiments. Hello Ben. Hi Eva. How's it downtown? It's rainy just like everywhere, a little slow going around here. Okay, let's enjoy the rain.
I'm going to get right into it. The US Federal Reserve Chair Juron Paul spoke earlier this week on interest rates and the economy. What key signals did he send and what should investors expect regarding future interest rate decisions? Thank you, that's a good question. Powell has generally, since the meeting last week, been discussing the changing environment with jobs and some of the challenges with tariffs. It looks like we're heading towards lower rates still, particularly in the US. At the start of the week, it was about 91% likely that they're going to cut again in October. I don't think anything he said or that happened this week will change that. We had some jobless numbers to comment on, but most of what he's been discussing is concern about the economy slowing and unemployment rising. This has been more of his concern than inflation, which marks a notable policy change from the earlier focus this year.
President Donald Trump announced plans to impose a $100,000 fee on H1B visas. How significant could this move be, and what impact would this have on companies, especially in the tech and finance sectors that rely heavily on global talent? Materially, the top five tech companies applying for these visas are Amazon, Tata, Microsoft, Meta, and Apple, with Google just below the top five. These are major tech firms, and Amazon has over 10,000 employees on H1B visas in the US. It’s a significant development if implemented, though the tactic or reasoning is unclear. In finance, JP Morgan, Fidelity, and Goldman are the three major companies most negatively impacted. This move amounts to a material tax on these companies. Trump's approach seems to oscillate between progressive economic actions and counterintuitive steps that slow the economy. This fee is another example of that ebb and flow. Interestingly, markets haven't reacted significantly; Oracle was down a bit today, but there was no direct connection to the visa announcement, despite the potential employee and cost impact.
It almost seems like the market is just closing its eyes and ears and carrying on. You’d expect a stronger reaction to such news. Speaking of equities, we are hitting fresh highs and showing strong momentum, despite economic and political challenges. Is this rally supported by fundamentals, or is it driven by other forces like FOMO or liquidity? What vulnerabilities should investors keep in mind, given stretched valuations? That’s a great point. FOMO, YOLO—everyone is afraid of missing out. As a fundamentalist, I’ve observed that in the last decade, markets haven’t cared much about fundamentals. Appreciation or depreciation has been driven by economic activity and money supply or financial liquidity. For example, the S&P is at 23 times earnings, and even forward earnings are at 23–24 times. The Schiller CAPE index is around 40, which is historically high. If fundamentals start to matter again, that’s a potential risk, but currently, money supply and economic activity are the main drivers. We’ve seen M2 accelerate materially in the past month, and this theme has been persistent for the past year. I don’t think it will last forever, and investors should remain vigilant. The likely off-ramp could be when economic activity and money supply start to slow, potentially mid next year. Markets will begin to anticipate this at some point, but not just yet.
Let's look at the charts. We’re recording this on Thursday, September 25th at 11:00 a.m., a bit earlier than usual. Anything happening after now will be discussed in detail next week. If you have any questions in the meantime, please reach out to us, have a call, or book a meeting. We’re happy to provide updates on portfolios and market developments. Eva’s initial question was about interest rates and longer-term expectations. Forward guidance, such as via fedwatchtool.com, suggests another two cuts—likely two 25-basis-point moves. Longer-term, rates are expected to continue declining. If the economy cracks mid next year, this descent could accelerate. The dot plot shows most forecasts heading towards three or fewer rate cuts, which is a significant drop from current levels.
On tariffs, while the H1B visa fee isn’t technically a tariff, it acts like a tax. US tariff rates are rising again. Earlier this year, we saw initial hikes on products like fentanyl, aluminum, steel, autos, and reciprocal coal tariffs. A deal with the UK was reached in May, which spurred market acceleration. Now, markets are at elevated levels, and tariffs are ramping up again on steel, aluminum, and countries like Vietnam, Japan, South Korea, and Brazil. The H1B visa move fits into this tax/tariff environment. There’s an ebb and flow: markets do well, negative news causes selloffs, then markets recover, and now we’re seeing renewed aggression on taxes and tariffs. The market seems complacent, but this could become a key issue.
Regarding the US dollar, our economics team notes the greenback continues to weaken against the 24 largest global currencies. In 2022, we saw the opposite, with the US dollar rising while all other asset classes fell until year-end. In 2023–24, the dollar trended sideways, and now it’s heading down again as financial conditions ease and markets perform well. If there’s a sharp trend reversal, like a sudden rise in the US dollar, it could pressure risk assets—equities, emerging markets, and international markets, which have performed well this year. Tracking the US dollar is crucial for investors.
I also like to look at global markets for opportunities. If you’ve had winners this year, where do you recycle your gains? Argus, one of our research partners, provides helpful insights with their "key statistics" snapshots. For example, Baxter International—a pharmaceutical company—has suffered from negative news but is currently trading around $22–$23, with a one-year target of $32. Valuations and payouts look favourable, trading at nine times forward earnings. If there’s a shift back to consumer staples, Baxter could be a good pick. This demonstrates the value of selling winners and buying beaten-down stocks that may rebound, which is my approach to portfolio management. As always, these opinions don’t necessarily reflect those of National Bank Financial. Please consult your adviser, consider your risk tolerance, and feel free to reach out for a discussion before investing.
Thank you, Ben. What's on the agenda for next week? As we approach the end of September, which can be a volatile month historically, I’ve tried to remain patient and cautious. Next Wednesday marks month-end, and we’ll be closely monitoring October, another period with historical choppiness. As mentioned, the market is complacent, volatility is low, and trends have persisted for a while—often making for a precarious environment. Watch for cracks in the US dollar, bond yields, or gold over the next four or five days. If any of these show weakness, it may be time to be more cautious and potentially increase selling.
Thank you, everyone. Remember to visit, subscribe, and follow us on YouTube and LinkedIn at Heart Investment Group. Links to our daily financial updates will be in the caption of this video and in your inbox if you’re subscribed. For clients, please reach out to me if you have questions or want to book a review meeting with Ben. Thank you for listening and enjoy the rest of your day. Bye. Thanks. Take care.
To keep you informed and stimulate your thinking, Stéfane Marion and Denis Girouard take a look at economic news and share their perspectives in our monthly informative videos.
Hello everyone, welcome to Economic Impact. It's September 2nd, 2025, and as usual, I am with our friend and Chief Economist Stéfane Marion. Hello Stéfane.
Hi Denis.
Well, it's been a while since the last meeting, but you know, things are pretty good on the stock market.
It's been a while, but it's been eventful and one thing that you know not too many people expected, myself included Denis is the great performance of global equity markets up 10% year to date. Every region of the world is delivering positive returns. Note Denis that the second-best performing index among the main regions is the Canadian one, up 15%. So, again, we weren't expecting this, but I have to say, Denis, people were saying there's going to be a tariff war. It hasn't been a tariff war. It's been unilateral U.S. protectionism because U.S. is imposing tariffs, but there's no retaliation or very limited retaliation from other parts of the world. So, it's not your textbook tariff war. Maybe that explains the perspective, you know this performance of the stock market saying well maybe the global supply chain is not entering tremendous uncertainty, which I'm not certain about.
Yeah, at the same time, when you're looking at the economic news, it's kind of disturbing because you look at the GDP in Canada and it's not that good.
OK, so based on current news, can you justify 15% for Canada? GDP is not doing so well. I know a lot of people are saying, well, it's proven to be resilient. GDP is just down 1.6%. Consumers are still spending, but gross domestic income, which looks at all the revenues generated in Canadian economy, that was down almost 3%. That's the worst we've seen since COVID. So obviously, Denis, if people have less money and corporations are generating less revenues at this point in time, you could probably say that this might lead to an underperforming economy yet in the second half this year. So, Q2, there's not much of a rebound in place, I think for the second half of the year at this point in time.
And at the same time, we see that the labour market is not that great now.
No so the GDI is the most correlated one with labour markets. So, less revenues in economy, generally speaking, that means corporations will invest less and they won't hire as much. So, diffusion unemployment right now, there's only 35% of corporations that are actually hiring, so below 50%. It's a figure we haven't seen outside periods where the economy is still in contraction. So again, great performance of the stock market, but it's mostly based on expectation as opposed to current news, which is not so good, but it does open the door for rate cuts by the Bank of Canada.
OK. But talking about expectation, you know, since the last time, Mr. Carney is doing a lot of announcements, you know, to promote and to give more money to the economy and the investing and a lot of sectors and it's quite unusual too.
Yeah, it's automatic about making Canada investable again because we've had no growth in business investment for the past 15 years. So, one thing, one of the big news, that’s been announced since we last met: deregulation. So, Mr. Carney is looking at this, looking also at valuing, putting more emphasis on natural resources, perhaps selling LNG to Germany, for example. But importantly, going forward for the stock market, the new commitment to spend up to 5% of GDP and defence spending, something we haven't seen since the Korean War, is a big deal Denis because it probably leads to a period of reindustrialization for the Canadian economy. So, in essence, that would mean that we transform our resources here in Canada and manufacture some of these resources. So, that might be why the stock market is performing so well as opposed, you know, to just, you know, current news.
And maybe Mr. Carney was listening to you, because way back then, you know, you showed us a slide where, you know, the Canada industrial base was one of the lowest from the country.
So, the message we've been conveying to the authorities is that you can't be the 7th largest economy in the world and you're having a manufacturing sector that's 18th in the world, which means you're not, you're basically exporting raw resources to the rest of the world and you're shrinking your manufacturing sector. So, this is why there's a made in Canada solution to reindustrialize Canada. And maybe we can leverage what we want to do on the military side to promote an increase in manufacturing. Our manufacturing sector is just too small. If we can get a system where we can get a procurement to Canadian industries to boost their defence spending, that could be good for the Canadian economy and sustain the valuation of the stock market.
And that's probably what the stock market is telling us right now.
There could be some of that.
Maybe.
Yeah.
OK, now we need to talk about tariffs because it's, you know, we're talking about that everyday almost. What's the impact of the tariffs?
So, again, it's not a tariff war. It's unilateral protectionism. There was a meeting between China, India, and Russia this weekend. They want to change the supply chain. At the end of the day, I understand that the Q2 earnings season was better than expected globally and in the U.S. Denis. But note that it's only in the second quarter, at the very end of the second quarter, June to be precise, that the U.S. started collecting tariffs on a significant scale and it's increasing now. And so, the impact, the true impact of tariff collection, it was more likely to be observed in the third quarter, in the fourth quarter of this year as opposed to the first half of this year where they were announced, but they weren't collected.
And for the inflation, you know, we're expecting inflation to rise its state quite at the same level, you know, 3% for a while.
So, there's a belief in the market there and there's been tariffs. There's been no impact on inflation. Well, it's only starting now Denis and the latest news on inflation suggests that, the July numbers suggest that, you know what, over the past three months, core inflation is running at 3%. The 12-month change is actually accelerating at this point in time. So, you're well above the target, you know, normally, the 2% target that, you know, the central banks are looking at. So, it's going to make it hard for the Fed to cut rates. They will be cutting rates in in the weeks ahead, but how much can they cut when inflation is accelerating?
Yeah. And at the same time, you know, we're seeing peak in long-term rates.
So, you're absolutely right. If the bank, if the central bank cuts rates and the long end of the curve becomes de-anchored because they're not sure about, you know, whether the Fed's going to be politicized and what type of, there's a lack of discipline in government spending right now. What is unusual, and you have to go back, way back Denis to see the last time that the Fed was reducing interest rates and yet the 30-year bond yield is moving higher. And that's a global phenomenal: lack of discipline at the fiscal level in many countries, but the U.S. running a deficit of 6%. This will be important to watch Denis. This will be a key driver for financial markets in the months ahead.
Then we can see a steepening of the yield curve.
Definitely a steepening under these circumstances. You're right.
OK, before the end, we need to talk about currency, especially the greenback.
So, you're talking about a potential steepening of the yield curve, maybe long-term rates moving higher at a time where 30% of the entire U.S. bond market is held by foreigners. Denis, if they're skeptical about your outlook about inflation, your commitment to keep inflation at 2%, you're going to shun the U.S. dollar. It's exactly what's happening right now. And U.S. dollar at a cyclical low. I think there’s scope for more downside, Denis, at the end of the day. So, that would mean, yeah, you know, the price of U.S. dollar alternatives be it gold alternative assets, even commodities, might be a lot more resilient because of this U.S. dollar depreciation. So, the point being Denis that we haven't seen the last of this tariff policy on the impact of financial markets. So, we've had no volatility or very little volatility this summer. I can't guarantee you the same for the next few weeks, next few months. So, let's be prudent. That's seasonally, that's not an easy season for financial markets or the stock market. The long end of the curve will be important to watch.
OK, Stéfane, our last meeting you were quite optimist. Are you still very optimist?
I'm, you know, from a Canadian perspective, I'm still optimistic in a sense that Ottawa has finally deployed policies that might be more structural in nature and good for the economy. But this type of stimulus won't come before 2026. So, I'm optimistic that we're going in the right, moving in the right direction, but doesn't mean there won't be any volatility in the weeks and months ahead. I need to tame the long end of the curve for global financial markets. And then Ottawa, I need to deliver on the fiscal plan and the budget won't come before later this fall.
Well, thank you, Stéfane, and thank you all of you who are listening to us. But above all, don't miss our next meeting early October. Thank you.
5 minutes, 4 graphs, 3 key takeaways! Discover a fresh focused quarterly review of markets, the economy and investments with expert Louis Lajoie from our CIO Office.
Hello everyone. Today, September 4, we're going to take a few minutes to look back on the key events that have happened over the summer months for the economy, for markets, as well as what this all likely implies for investors going forward.
Without further ado, we must say that we have enjoyed a remarkably clement summer on the financial markets with for instance equities remaining well anchored on an upward trend, now up by about 13% year to date and even almost 18% for Canadian equities, which continue to outperform, thanks notably to good returns on the part of the materials sector. But what really stands out from the last, the last few months is just how little volatility we saw across financial assets with bonds, for instance, still treading water, but also even on the currency front, which for the most part have essentially consolidated their recent moves or moves from earlier in the year in the case of the Canadian dollar, that's a gain against the U.S. dollar.
So quite a contrast with the extreme volatility from earlier in the year, a contrast that can be largely explained by the fact that the most severe fears that were stoked by the arrival of the U.S. economic agenda have simply not materialized into actual economic data. For instance, inflation continues to largely send the same signal message it was saying earlier before the arrival of tariffs, with for instance Canadian inflation around 2% and U.S. inflation higher, in their case around 3%. So that remains something to keep a close eye on.
But behind these figures, there seems to be a shift in the backdrop, an inflationary backdrop. When you ask U.S. small businesses what is your most important problem right now, you see that the answer is less so inflation as before and increasingly so poor sales that are becoming problematic. And that is an important change in the backdrop because the more sales top line growth is problematic, the more, the higher the chances that eventually that will result into layoffs. And that explains effectively the tight relationship between poor sales and the unemployment rate. So, we'll have to keep a very close eye on how the labour market will evolve over the coming months.
And, accordingly, how the U.S. Federal Reserve will adjust its policy stance against these changing conditions. We are already starting to see a bit of a change in tone, a change in guidance, with President Powell, for instance, saying that the balance of risks appears to be shifting, essentially opening the door to rate cuts. Now that may seem insignificant as a statement, but bear in mind that equity markets and financial markets are entirely focused on the future, not present conditions. And that's why policy guidance is absolutely crucial for financial markets. And effectively, if you look at the last few years, very often key turning points in equity markets were not at key turning points in present conditions in the economy, but at key turning points in policy guidance, mostly from the Fed. But that's also the phenomenon that we have witnessed with the tariffs policy earlier in the year. And for as long as global economic activity remains relatively decent, as we expect, that change in tone at the Fed could actually help support equities to keep staying on an upward trend.
All right, three takeaways for today. Again, as I was saying earlier, the last few months, essentially the relative calm after the tariff storm, given that that storm didn't produce as many damages as initially feared, although the economy is definitely transitioning towards greater pressure on labour markets, which will likely lead to a change in interest rates towards the downside south of the border, a few rate cuts. For investors, what this all mean is summer is over. What I mean by that is we should reasonably expect volatility to pick up at some point. That would be entirely normal. But nonetheless, there is still grounds for optimism given resilient earnings growth and, again, a more favourable policy backdrop.
That's it for today. Thank you for listening and we will talk again in December.
The experts at National Bank Financial give a detailed analysis on how the stock markets and fixed income markets have performed every week.
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