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The Good, The Bad, The Ugly Newsletter

Hey Cam, our first video together, what do you think?

It's going to be fun.

Yeah. 2024 was a wonderful year.

On a personal note, I was lucky enough to trick my best friend in to marry me before she got her

cataract surgery done and I look forward to you all meeting her.

Secondly, the families we care for just had a real good year.

We ran with four models.

The rates of return this year ran from 9% if you only had 35% in the stock market up to our most

aggressive model, which is 90% in the stock market and it achieved 17% return.

I couldn't be happier when our clients are doing great, I'm having a really good day.

It you know, This is why we do it at this stage of our life is for all of you folks and I'm so happy to see

you all doing so well.

Many of you are in our balance model could because you're retired and it's only 60% in the stock

market and even it had achieved 12% return this year.

Now your returns might vary slightly, you know, depending on if you did a bunch of withdrawals and

deposits throughout the year.

Now the stock market has been great for a couple of years, so it's tempting for investors and advisors

to get too euphoric and follow the herd and go all in and let's just buy tech stock or we'll go out and

buy one of the 20,000 types of cryptocurrencies.

You know, I was reading some great headlines the other day around that regarding the euphoria of, of

having a new president and how bullish the world is that we have a new president in case except, of

course, the people that really don't like Mr. Trump, they're not too bullish.

But yeah, most of the world is though, they know he's pretty business friendly.

So here, here's some headlines that that I was reading.

The president will lower tax and be business friendly and was elected on a platform of protectionism

and tariffs which will make the United States really strong.

Interest rates have been lower to stimulate the economy.

Reserve requirements that banks have been reduced.

So the money supply in the United States has increased by 60% to get consumers to borrow and buy

and get the economy rock and rolling margin account balances of people boring to buy.

Stocks are at record levels.

This all gives us a feeling of prosperity when it comes to the stock market.

So people have started to speculate or gamble in the investment world, real estate is also doing really

well as FOMO or the fear of missing out.

The president has also announced deportation of a million or more illegal immigrants back to Mexico.

That makes Americans believe that they're going to have more jobs, less than unemployment.

Everything like that. It sounds pretty good eh, Cam?

The math is starting to match the Cinderella economy.

U.S. economic headlines are indeed positive under the Trump presidency, at least in my world.

So the attitude of advisors in my world is let's rock'n'roll.

However, I tricked you again here.

These, these headlines, I listed above, even though they sound exactly like today, they're not from

today.

They're actually from the 1920s when Herbert Hoover was president in the roaring 20s.

And those indeed were all the things that he did.

President Hoover placed tariffs and deported 1.8 million people Back to Mexico.

At that time he called it the Great Repatriation.

Hoover's bull market was followed as you know-the Roaring 20s was incredible bull market where the

stock market quadrupled.

Unfortunately, it was followed by an 89% market crash.

The stock market stayed down for 20 years and created the Great Depression.

7000 U.S. banks failed and unemployment hit 25%.

That's quite a bit more than the three to 6% unemployment we have today.

Yeah, that's a pretty dooming gloom scenario.

Yeah, I guess you're taking the bad side of the good, bad and ugly.

I've taken the old guy-bad side.

I have to be optimistic. I'm just a little bit younger than you are.

Yeah, I've got no choice.

Well, Mr. Trump and all the investment advisors, I think, Cam, need to read their history books before

going all in, because President Trump, if he fulfills all his provinces, he's about to do exactly what

President Hoover did.

But am I predicting a stock market crash?

No, no, I'm not, because no one knows if the market's going to crash.

You can't get run over by a train you can see coming.

So no one knows what's going to happen under the Trump presidency.

It may be the best stock market in the world.

It might have a crash. You know.

What are your thoughts?

You know what, with all those stars aligning like President Hoover's, it's really hard to say.

The history does rhyme.

It doesn't always mirror itself.

But there's a lot of differences between now and 1929, obviously.

Got to look at the other side of the coin.

I'll take the good half of the good and bad ugly today.

You know, back in 1929, there was no Federal Reserve or Bank of Canada.

There's no social safety Nets like EI.

There was no old age security or Canada Pension Plan.

There certainly wasn't a Canadian Deposit Insurance Corp or the Canadian Investor Protection Fund.

So there's all those backstops that are in place nowadays.

If there was a Fed Reserve back in 29, I have a hard time feeling that, that Great Depression actually

would have happened.

Yeah, that's true, right.

So, but stock markets do predict the future.

They're always leading indicators on the economy.

And AI is going to be increasing productivity, similar to the 1990s tech boom.

So there is a lot of optimism going there.

If President Trump does fall through those promises like lowering interest rates, cutting taxes,

increasing oil supply, deregulating the business world, then all of that is all catalysts for increased

corporate profits and with that, increased stock prices.

You know, I think I think he'll do that.

I really do.

Because you know what, he likes to make money.

So that's why I think he will do a lot of that stuff.

Yeah.

What did he say last time he made a civilian office?

“How's your 401ks doing?”

Yeah, Yeah.

And you can bet he's shorting and longing some investments on his own.

But anyways, you didn't hear it here.

I don't have a clue what Donald Trump's doing. So.

But no, Cam's right.

Technology is a huge inflection point.

I lived through it in the 90s and saw a crash in 2000, obviously.

But it's even more staggering this time than it was in the 90s.

I think in 1900, for example, it took 150 years to double all human knowledge on the planet.

1945 it took 25 years.

In 2020, we were excited because it was taking two days only to double all human knowledge on the

planet.

Guess what it is today, 12 hours.

Every 12 hours all human knowledge on the planet is doubling.

If that's not going to have an effect over, a positive effect over corporations and corporate profit, I

don't really know what will.

The markets might be a little overheated.

We're starting to see some crazy crap recently.

For example, it's Sotheby’s’ auction the other day, on November 8th, a crypto investor, Justin Son,

paid the Italian artist Mauricio Cartland $6.2 million for a beautiful piece of art entitled The Comedian.

Now, you know, you might be going taken for a ride of your piece of art.

It's called The Comedian.

Yeah, no doubt.

And yes, it is a banana. Duct tape to a wall.

It's a $6.2 million banana.

It was reported that after he bought it, he tore it off the wall and ate it.

Did you bring your lunch?

Got a banana in there?

No Riley eats all the bananas.

I'll bring the duct tape.

So as always, we're going to have to participate the best in your plan, but prepare for the worst when

we see crap like this going on.

As always, we remain cautious so we don't damage your family or send you back to work.

If you are retired, we will not mark a time around this kind of background noise as the Federal Reserve

may continue with the soft landing.

And you would miss wonderful years.

You really would.

So we're not going to get cute and go to the sidelines, but we're prepared.

The stock market has dropped roughly every five years for 100 years, and they'll do so.

They'll continue to do so long after I'm not on this planet or you're not on this planet too.

But remember the other side of the coin is when the stock market rises, it rises 80% of the time and it

only drops 20% of the time.

And remember 80% of your investment success will be termed by not getting too euphoric in the

good times like now and gamble instead of invest.

And on the other side, not capitulating and selling at the bottom when your investments are having

bad times.

The markets has corrected every five years, we know it'll come again.

So guess what we're going to do?

We're going to take advantage of opportunities when that happens.

The third piece of good news that we want to share with you today is that, as you know, we moved to

a new fantastic home, namely National Bank.

Yes, thank you, everybody.

From all of us here at the Gustafson-Lienau Advisory Group, from the bottom of our hearts, Brad and I

can't thank you enough for moving with us.

When advisors move an institution, a financial institution, typically it takes about 12 to 16 months to

move all of the clients over.

And there's only about 50 to 70% of the clients will follow their advisors during those changes.

And we are so, so honored that effectively 100% more client families have come with us, except for

one that we're actually going to be meeting with this week here to have a have a sit down.

So thank you again for signing all of those documents and DocuSign and working through that

arduous process with us.

We know how much work it was to go through those mountains of paperwork because guess who

also had to sign all those forms too?

This guy right here.

So you broke a lot of records, and I'll show you this graph here.

We actually tracked our transition process.

Couple things about it.

First off, the title is Bee Gees because that's what National Bank had for a code name for our team.

They like to stick to a theme of rock bands or old bands I guess, and it seemed fitting that we were the

Bee Gees.

We care for about 150 families, including children as well.

So that leads to about 225 couples.

And here's the results.

90% of you gave us the verbal yes within that first week that you're going to work with us continually.

And all clients except for the one family that we're still up to meet with have completed paperwork

and their hard earned savings have all been moved over here by day 70.

So during this transition, there was some eyebrows even the President of National Bank Financial

Wealth Management called us and said we did not know that a move could be completed this fast.

Now we're still cleaning up a few items for some of you.

However, as a couple weeks ago, we're resuming normal operations and we started to meet with the

referrals, start to continue on our regular review cycle and continue with all of the regular financial

planning after this interruption.

So stay tuned.

Early next year, Brittlyn is going to be announcing the details of a big red carbon event for you and all

of your families to attend.

Brittlyn is currently interviewing some venues as we speak.

We're going to need a big place to house all everybody.

You know, I feel it's really weird when you're talking a long time like that because I'm sitting here

nodding that you're talking now.

You know how I feel.

Kind of reminds you when we're watching the Prime Minister or someone standing beside the

nodding.

So all kidding aside, there's quite a few reasons we moved.

Some of you asked, you know, why the heck did you guys go through this?

And you know, I'm moving at my age was the last thing I wanted to do.

There's many reasons we moved.

Number one, size and safety.

National Bank over here, managed $653 billion or way over half a trillion dollars.

Stable history equals a stable future.

The bank's 165 years old and, and the independent wealth division where we work, where we reside is

122 years old.

And no, I wasn't there when the doors came.

I promise.

The most important thing which I got in writing, you know, I'm too old to be told what to do.

So the most important thing that I wanted writing was autonomy.

So we're free.

We know for sure we are free to operate independently from the bank.

We do not have to use their investments.

We can use the 60 any of the 68,000 investments out there that we want and continue to run the

business the way we want to and the way we've always ran it in an ethical client centric man.

Well that was so, so very important.

We know without all of you that we don't have jobs.

Therefore, the ability to continue white glove services paramount.

It was paramount in our decision to move.

National Bank will be a good partner in that goal.

I did, I did quite a lengthy due diligence on that for the last several years

Now National Bank is ranked #1 every year in the JD Powers Client Service survey.

And this was very important to me.

This, this graph as well as many other things, safety.

You know, all the banks and, and financial institutions I interviewed, they all had cyber walls like any

other business.

What's unique is National Bank has also employed hackers to play defense against other hackers to

give that extra level of safety to your money.

And, and that sure made me feel really, really safe.

Yeah.

And coming over here, the entire team did follow us except for one person.

So we need to search across Canada, find somebody to fill those shoes and we're very grateful that

we've found someone with even more experience actually to run our paperwork processing and the

compliance desk.

So last month, Tracy Spence, you may see some emails coming in from her already has moved from

Toronto to take over our vacant desk here on the team.

A little bit about her.

She has 30 years’ experience in this role.

She's been a past winner of the highest performance award with one of her past employers.

She's worked at several banks and including National Bank in the past and fits in and shares with the

team the love of the clients and the higher purpose of caring for families.

Most importantly, she does laugh at Brad's dad jokes as well, too.

That's a must to try and fit in here.

Good timing.

Yeah.

So we have yet to get some new head shots done up.

So we'll be bringing Tracy in here shortly so you can get a a quick look at her and and put a face to

the name.

“Hi, I'm Tracy.

I'm very excited to meet all of you.”

But presently, the team in no particular order.

Many of you know Brittlyn already, she's our operations manager and really the circus leader.

We've got Jeremy who's our experienced plan writer with years of planning experience and he even

worked at banks before, lending experience as well too.

Augustine's our support member for anything administrative wise when it comes to your accounts and

now Tracy here as well, obviously joining in too.

So big team to be able to continue that white glove service approach.

I want to close also and back up what Cam said.

Thank you, thank you, thank you so much.

I'm personally humbled that you all followed us.

It, it's a heck of a compliment.

Thank you so, so much.

I also want to thank the team, though obviously they work side by side with Cam and I on many

weekends and well into the evening during this process till I started to lose my voice.

They made fun of me because I had a bag of throat lozenges behind my desk during the transition,

but they backed me up through all of that.

I'm also very proud of a man who's like a son to me, which is, which is Cam right here.

He stepped up and took possession of the administrative part of the practice through this move and

freed me up to work on the business, making it a Better Business instead of getting buried in the

business and the paperwork and admin minutia of the practice.

And I'd like I've, I've told some of you and I happy to announce to all of you that I've changed the

name of our business from Gustafson Associates to Gustafson-Lienau Advisory Group.

I guess that stands for GLAG

I Google GLAG, there's nothing bad.

We're OK.

We're not going to get sued.

I'm glad that it doesn't mean anything shifty or anything.

I sure hope not.

I didn't think about that.

Also, our legal department is putting the finishing touches on a succession contract as we speak to

ensure if I fall ill or croak on you, that Cam will take you and your family over the finish line for the rest

of your entire life.

And that sounds like a small thing, but it gives me a giant amount of comfort.

I was in a car accident on the highway the Callaway park in 19…

Sorry, 2021. See, that's why I need a successor.

I forget what century it is, and that's probably the post-concussion.

Yeah, so.

But it was in 2021 during COVID and I'm sitting on the side of the highway in the ditch waiting for an

ambulance and thinking “what about my family? What about the clients? What about the practice?”

And it gave me a lot of comfort to know that if Cam was here and it would be all OK if anything bad

happened to me after that accident.

So it means a lot to me to have an honorable partner like Cam.

Thank you to him for your continued mentorship.

It's seven years now on the team and I, I couldn't be more grateful and happier for working with you

and everything I've learned and, and getting to know all of you as well too.

Like our clients, it's feels like one giant family and something that we love to do on a day in and day

out.

And that's the reason why we come to work every day.

So from all of us at the Gustafson-Lienau Advisory Group, we want to say thank you very much and

wish you all a wonderful holiday season.

“Happy Holidays and Happy New Year to everyone.”

National Bank Financial - Wealth Management (NBFWM) is a division of National Bank Financial Inc. (NBF), as well as a trademark owned by National Bank of Canada (NBC) that is used under license by NBF. NBF is a member of the Canadian Investment Regulatory Organization (CIRO) and the Canadian Investor Protection Fund (CIPF), and is a wholly-owned subsidiary of NBC, a public company listed on the Toronto Stock Exchange (TSX: NA). 

National Bank Financial Ranked #1 for Advised Investor Satisfaction by J.D. Power 2 years in a row

Economic news

Economic Impact

To keep you informed and stimulate your thinking, Stéfane Marion and Denis Girouard take a look at economic news and share their perspectives in our monthly informative videos.

Hello everyone. Welcome to Economic Impact. Today is May 2nd, 2025 and as usual, I am with our Chief Economist, Stéfane Marion. Hello, Stéfane.

Hello, Denis. It's been only two weeks since we saw each other, but it's been volatile in markets and actually, outside the U.S., people remain pretty confident. So every asset class, pretty much every asset class is up year to date now. It's a big change from early April, except one.

Except one.

Except one, which one?

South of the border.

It's U.S. equities, are still down 8% year to date. Still the uncertainty about the global economy, and particularly what the White House wants to do with this whole tariff structure.

And talking about tariffs, where are they now because they move quite a lot. The last time we were around 32% and now I think we're a little bit down, but not as much as probably we would hope.

I can tell you that, in my entire career, I've never seen tariffs move like that or moves like that. We went from 2 to 5 to 10 to 7 to 36 to 24. Now we stand at 23% as of today. So down from 26%, which was where we were just two weeks ago, but still overly punitive for the U.S. economy. So, I think that this needs to be settled. Everybody thinks it will come down, but how soon will they come down will dictate the U.S. economic performance and the performance of U.S. profits.

Yeah, because those tariffs are still pretty high, now we're starting to talk more about stagflation. And the ISM showed that inflation expected is high, but productivity is down too at the same time, which is not good.

Yeah, many corporations don't even provide guidance right now because they don't know what the tariff structure will be just in the next few weeks. So, what you see in the U.S., GDP was negative in Q1 for the first time in over three years. In manufacturing, production is down, which echoes what we saw on GDP. But notice Denis, the red line, prices are up. That could squeeze your profit margins. You're selling less and your input prices are rising. So, will you be able to sustain your earnings guidance under these circumstances? People don't know. Corporations don't know, they're dropping earnings guidance. And unlike the pandemic episode, if you want, the government is not sending cheques to households to allow prices to be fully reflected on the CPI. So, this means uncertainty about profit margins and profit growth and obviously the performance of the S&P 500.

Yeah, today we had the employment numbers in the United States. Quite stable, despite everything we saw the past few weeks.
And the White House was complacent and they're saying that this is the proof that tariffs are not hurting the U.S. economy. I think we have to be careful with that assessment Denis because historically, corporations don't layoff people as soon as production comes down. They wait a few months to say, is it improving or not? So, what we're seeing in the U.S. is, yes, the unemployment rate has been stable since the second half of last year, but will it be the same in the next few months? I would venture to say that, if production does not pick up, and I'm not so sure it will pick up, the unemployment rate is likely to go up in the second half of this year. Now, from the Federal Reserve perspective, can you really cut interest rates if inflation is still rising? That's a big unknown. The market is very aggressive right now, pricing in four rate cuts for the Federal Reserve. But if it's a stagflationary component to U.S. economic growth they won't be able to cut rates as aggressively, and that could fragilize the stock market. So, this is very important. In the next few months, will the U.S. see rising unemployment rates? And that will be the critical element that will allow the president to be a lot less aggressive on tariffs.

Yeah, but he was happy this morning for sure.

Yes, but that means he can remain aggressive on tariffs, so I want him to be less aggressive.

Which is bad for that number.

So, exactly. So, the unemployment rate will be critical in the next few months.

If we come back in Canada. In Canada, you know, we had also the GDP number. GDP number is positive, you know, compared to the U.S., which was negative, but it has a bad trend right now.

So, yes. So, we're not going to be down on growth in Q1. So that's great news when you consider that. However, so we have positive growth, lackluster growth, you know, maybe 1.5%. But notice Denis that population is going at 2.8%. And this is the issue from a Canadian perspective: the blue line is supposed to grow faster than the red line, not the other way around. So, this is a critical development that needs to be addressed by our politician. We just had an election in Canada. We have a new Prime Minister that said that, you know the economy is a priority for him, so we need to fix this. Absolutely. This is not normal. We need to put policies in place that will foster an environment where the blue line grows faster than the red line.

And then, you know, talking about that, we need to talk about investment because at some point, you know, we still have that lag between the U.S. and Canada in terms of business investment, and that has to change.

So we need.

Mr. Carney has to tackle that one.

So basically, what you're telling me, we need to improve productivity and we can't just grow on population growth. And that means we need to bring business investment. I think you're right on that one. You're absolutely right on that one. And we haven't had, you know, business investment that has been stable or stagnant for the past decade. And that's unprecedented in Canadian history. So, the U.S., you know, business investment is more than doubled over in the U.S. over that period. So, this is the critical element. This needs to be, this has to be a priority for Mr. Carney. So he won't be staying home very long. So, this is a priority.

He's going to the White House next week.

You're right. So that's number one. So, in order to grow business investment, you need to attract or retain investment in this country or attract foreign direct investment in Canada. So, I need visibility on my access to the U.S. market. So that's point number one. You're absolutely right. The other one that we spoke too often is domestically, we need to abolish these interprovincial trade barriers in order to foster East-West production or trade.

Yeah, and we have to react on that because we keep talking about it, but we haven't seen anything yet that is coming and saying we drop that. We drop that. No, it's just words right now. And election.

You're right. And with the currency that continues to appreciate. So basically the Canadian dollar is appreciated more than tariffs have increased on Canada. So it doesn't really help our businesses. So not only do we not know if we have market access to U.S., the currency is appreciating, which is not necessarily great for earnings. So, this needs to be settled, and if the currency appreciates, why don't we show a little bit more, let's be a little bit more pragmatic. Let's reduce the regulatory environment because, you know, the Prime Minister says we need to spend more to invest more in the country, but it won't help if you have this very prohibitive regulatory environment that needs to be tackled. And, corporate income taxes as well as energy policies is a big unknown. So, these are all priorities that need to be addressed. Unfortunately, you don't have much time. So that needs to be addressed over the next three to six months.

Yeah. And we know that corporations will probably go South of the border because of everything going on right now. They want to produce product there to get access to that big market. Then having those foreigners coming to Canada, we're going to be, or we're going to need to be very, very attractive. Then he mentioned it, fiscality, you know, regulation, we need to do that fast. And you said it, Mr. Carney, will have a big agenda in the coming weeks if we want to see that curve moving up for the first time since a long period of time.

You're right that you can't coast just business investment. You know, the private sector just with government spending. It's more than that. It's the overall environment, the business environment. Are you business-friendly? Are you open for business or only so? So, yes, the priority is, as you said, renegotiate USMCA and tackle all the regulatory environment that reduces business investment in this country. And who knows Denis, if you do all this, I'm optimistic that they would reduce the valuation gap between the S&P TSX and the S&P 500. I think there's hope to be optimistic provided that the Prime Minister acts swiftly on all of these fronts.

So what do we do as investors? You know, we've been very prudent. We ask people to be very prudent, rightly so. Now we're seeing in some assets are doing better except the U.S., but we know that never good to short U.S. because that economy is very resilient.

You're absolutely right. However, I would say that there's probably a, you know, investors are probably looking at, is it normal to deploy so much capital in the U.S. if I have alternatives elsewhere? So, I think Europe is starting to provide an alternative. I want Canada to provide an alternative. So, from a relative performance standpoint, I still think that the U.S. is likely to underperform unless Mr. Trump backs down very aggressively on tariffs. So, but having said this, Denis, we have yet to see this happen. So, for that reason, still prudent in terms of our asset mix at this point in time.

Good. Thank you, Stéfane. Thank you to all of you to listening to us. And above all, don't miss our next meeting next June. Thank you.

Property Perspective

Our National Bank specialists decode the latest trends in the real estate market, including interest rates, the resale market and forecasts for the coming months.

Hello everyone and welcome to this November 28th edition of Property Perspective. Today I have the pleasure to be with Matthieu Arseneau, hello Matthieu. 

Hi Simon. 

And with Andrée Desrosiers. 

Hello Simon. 

Hello Andrée. Our topic of the day, what's best for my mortgage, a fixed or a variable rate. But before we enter that interesting discussion with Andrée, let's talk with Matthieu about recent economic news that influence the real estate market. So Matthieu, a number of events have occurred since we last spoke, all of which have an impact on the economic outlook, obviously. First, what are the implication of the Republican sweep in the US presidential election for economic growth and interest rates? 

Yes, this was a big event and there will be application for that for Canada over the next four years. Higher uncertainty, we saw that with the announcement of potential tariff on Canada. We'll see. But clearly, in my mind, the big event and this has implication for the housing market in Canada, particularly for interest rates. It's the fact that there could be much more fiscal stimulus South of the border given the promises of Trump during the campaign. As you can see on that chart, while the Congressional Budget Office was expecting roughly 6% of GDP deficit, which is already very high, it could be as high as 8% if all those promises are realized by Mr. Trump. So at the moment the Federal Reserve is trying to calm inflation in the US, calm the economy. There's government that could support growth over the next few years. So before the election, the Federal Reserve started to decline rates. They did already 75 basis points. But you can see that at the same time it didn't mean that longer term rates decline. In fact, it increased because of risk of tariffs and its implication for inflation because of stronger growth, though that's something we have to keep in mind. And the problem with that increase is given a global correlation in interest rates, when you have the largest economy in the world supporting the economy and having those rates it has an impact on rates in countries with economies not as strong as the US and has to cope with those increases. And that could be difficult for a couple of other economies in the world given the increase of those of those rates. So big implication and that has implications for Canada as well. 

Very interesting Matthieu, so the ability to lower the prime rate in the US now looks more limited. What about Canada?

In Canada, so we saw that in fact for investors expectation for the policy rate in the US, it was expected at 3%. Now it's much more closer to 4% by the end of next year. So clearly investors revised their optimism for rate cuts in the US. In Canada, the situation is clearly different in our view when you look at the labour market here, I'm showing the jobless wait for the prime age workers, the 25-54, it has continued to increase over the past few months. And that's diverging with the US and it's now its highest since 2017. And we don't see stabilization over the next few months given the hiring intention of corporations. So for us that's a sign that the economy has cooled significantly and this is reflected in inflation. When you look at services, core services excluding shelter in the US, it's running at 4.4% because they didn't have that weakness that we got in Canada, it's so it's running at 1.3%. So clearly inflation is under control here. So yes, we expect the Bank of Canada to continue to decline rates. Prior to recent announcements, we were expecting policy rate as low as 2% by the end of next year. But given the transfer that was also announced by the federal government, it could lead to upwardly revise a bit. We'll see if it will be implemented. But clearly as you can see on that chart, while Bank of Canada is declining rates, 10 year rate is increasing and is essentially in its last two years average at this point. So not that much relief for long term rates. So that's something to keep in mind. But for that reason, perhaps it's another reason for the Canada to try to push down those rates by having short term rates very low. So that's our expectation at this time, OK.

Matthieu, the government has announced recently an additional break on population growth for the next three years. What are the implications of this new announcement on the real estate market?

We talked about it very often over the past few months. Housing shortage is still very acute in Canada. We see that in the rental market with rent still increasing at a tepid pace. Same thing for first time home buyers. It's where affordability is still a problem. So I think it's the good decision to calm down population growth. In fact, with the recent announcement about the declining non permanent resident to 5% of population over a 2 year. Reducing permanent resident temporarily, that will lead for— when you look at the five year period, when we look in 2028, the pace for the next 5 years will be similar to what we had prior to the pandemic level, much more sustainable and much more in line with our capacity to welcome. So, I think it's a good decision at this point given housing shortage. And we have to keep in mind newcomers have problems to integrate the labour market in the current context. So let's fix that situation and get back to normal after this three-year period of slow growth and we will be able to get back to the model we had that was benefiting the Canadian economy prior to the pandemic. 

So finally good news. Thank you, Matthieu for your very interesting comments. Let's now discuss with Andrée, hello Andrée. In the context of the anticipated drop of the interest rate by the end of this year and obviously in 2025, should we go with a fixed rate or variable rate for our mortgage?

Very good questions Simon and indeed very relevant. The choice between a fixed rate and a variable rate for a mortgage depends on several factors, especially in the context of falling rates. Our risk tolerance, financial situation and short and mid economic outlook are key, you know, considerations to look at. We must first understand the bearish rate context, however, When the Bank of Canada lowers its prime rate, financial institutions typically adjust, you know, their mortgage rates in response to that downsize. Variable rates will generally follow primary fluctuations and become particularly advantageous in the short term. Fixed rates, although often higher than variable rates at the time of subscription, offer protection against potential future increases. We must however remember that they usually follow the interest rate on long term bonds and not the Bank of Canada prime rate. Therefore, a quarter point drop in the prime rate does not mean that fixed rate will fall by the same amount. 

OK. We must therefore understand this context carefully before making our decision. You're right, Andrée. Many people assume that when there's a drop in the prime rate, all rates fluctuate in the same way. However, as we have just seen, that isn't the case since different rates are influenced by different factors. With that in mind, Andrée, what are the advantages of one or the other? 

Yeah. If we look first, you know, at the variable rate, you should consider that rate if you believe that interest rates will continue to decline or stay low for an extended period of time. You can also choose the variable rate if you're comfortable with some level of risk and can handle or afford, you know, potential payment increases if rates rise. Also if you want to benefit from lower penalties, if you decide to pay off your mortgage early or switch lenders. Also, some variable rates loans offer the option to switch to a fixed rate if rates increase. On the other hand, you should consider, you know, a fixed rate if you prefer stability and want to avoid uncertainty, if you think rates might rise in the midterm and again, if your budget cannot accommodate sudden increases in monthly payments.

So once again, Andrée, the choice does not automatically go towards one or the other. Even if we are in the context of falling rates. As you mentioned, we must make sure to take other elements into account in our decision. You are very right Simon. And we must also not forget that some lenders offer mixed rate mortgages, you know, part fixed, part variables. So this approach allows you to balance the advantages of both options and reducing risk while still benefiting partially from falling rates. So in summary, you know in a falling rate environment, a variable rate may seem more advantageous in the short term, but it remains a bet on future rate trends. If you're comfortable with some uncertainty, a variable rate could maximize your savings. However, if peace of mind is your priority, a fixed rate is the safer choice. It all depends like usual on your financial profile and financial goals. To help you in your choice as usual, do not hesitate to consider or consult a mortgage specialist to assess your personal situation and provide you the right advice for that choice. 

Thank you Andrée for sharing your insights. As you suggested, having a discussion with a mortgage specialist will help make the right decision. There's no point about that. So thank you all for watching and join us again very soon for our next edition of Property Perspective.

5 • 4 • 3 Market Outlook

5 minutes, 4 graphs, 3 key takeaways! Discover a fresh focused quarterly review of markets, the economy and investments with expert Louis Lajoie from our CIO Office.

Hello everyone. Today, March 6, we're going to try to assess in just a few minutes a rather complex and constantly changing economic backdrop and what this could all mean for markets going forward. 

And to start with, I think it's important to understand that according to some indicators, we are actually facing the highest degree of uncertainty from an economic standpoint, economic policy standpoint for at least the past 25 years. So, we shouldn't be surprised to see equity markets’ volatility pick up against such an uncertain backdrop as markets try to assess what is the ultimate outcome and setting in terms of tariffs policy coming from south of the border. 

But as you can see here, the reaction is anything but exaggerated, so far, relatively muted, although we have seen indeed a pickup in volatility, maybe because markets have been conditioned not to overreact to uncertainty after a decade that has seen its fair share of historical events. But nonetheless, for the S&P 500 U.S. equity market, this marks a substantial shift in mood and sentiment compared to the optimism that prevailed following the last presidential election, the equity market now being slightly negative since the start of the year. 

And everybody's trying to assess where this may be headed going forward. But one thing is clear. If you take a big step back and look back at the last few weeks and months, that is the importance of diversification, which holds true when you think in terms of trading between countries, but definitely true when they think in terms of portfolio management.

And case in point, if you actually take a globally diversified equity portfolio in Canadian dollars, as you can see here, indeed there's slight gains still here today, large part due to substantial rebound in equity markets in Europe. But most importantly here you see that the path has been much narrower, much less volatile given these diversification effects. One very important being the impact of the Canadian dollar by depreciating helps returns when you bring them back home. So, diversification is somewhat working within equities and also working across asset classes with bonds having a rather good start to the year in the face of concerns over global growth, such that if you look at a very plain vanilla 60%-40% balanced portfolio, again, you see quite a narrow path in terms of volatility and very little damage so far in 2025.

Now, I want to be clear here, we've got to be cautious because there's definitely downside potential when you look ahead. And to give specific numbers here, the Bank of Canada actually tried to assess what could be the impact on our economy in the broad, a very extreme global trade war scenario. And the takeaway here is it's not a scenario that looks like anything like the [2008] global financial crisis or the pandemic but nonetheless could halt essentially growth in Canada in 2025 and ultimately create some problems for inflation as well.

But if there's one thing clear here though from the last few months, it's that the U.S. economy is anything but immune from a tariff shock, again being self-inflicted here by its own government. And specifically, we've actually seen a bit like the stock market consumer sentiment, which initially picked up post-election, now reversing course and coming down over the past two weeks, which definitely reflects concerns over inflation in the face of uncertainty about tariffs, consumer inflation expectations and that very survey usually don't move all that much, but have recently reached their highest level in in 20 years. So, this is something that we must keep a close eye on over the coming months because again, the U.S. economy may not be very much export-led, but it's definitely consumer-led. So that is very important.

Three takeaways for today. Again, there is a tremendous amount of uncertainty, which for now, markets have been essentially holding their breath, waiting some clarity as to how this all going to be evolving and what will be the ultimate impact on the economy. Technically, there's definitely downside risk for growth, especially in a country like Canada, but there's also upside for inflation in the U.S. So, we'll have to see how this all plays out. And in terms of markets, this means that we are likely going to be facing substantial volatility as we have seen since the start of the year, but maybe even more so going forward as we see these effects in the economy. And as such, we think that the mindset that investors should have against such an uncertain backdrop is one focused on the diversification, which has worked again since the start of the year, much more than one, very much focused on any specific views one may have on a U.S. president that again here, is very unpredictable.

That's it for today. Thank you for listening and we will talk again in June.

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