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The Good, The Bad, The Ugly Newsletter

Hey Cam, our first video together, what do you think?

It's going to be fun.

Yeah. 2024 was a wonderful year.

On a personal note, I was lucky enough to trick my best friend in to marry me before she got her

cataract surgery done and I look forward to you all meeting her.

Secondly, the families we care for just had a real good year.

We ran with four models.

The rates of return this year ran from 9% if you only had 35% in the stock market up to our most

aggressive model, which is 90% in the stock market and it achieved 17% return.

I couldn't be happier when our clients are doing great, I'm having a really good day.

It you know, This is why we do it at this stage of our life is for all of you folks and I'm so happy to see

you all doing so well.

Many of you are in our balance model could because you're retired and it's only 60% in the stock

market and even it had achieved 12% return this year.

Now your returns might vary slightly, you know, depending on if you did a bunch of withdrawals and

deposits throughout the year.

Now the stock market has been great for a couple of years, so it's tempting for investors and advisors

to get too euphoric and follow the herd and go all in and let's just buy tech stock or we'll go out and

buy one of the 20,000 types of cryptocurrencies.

You know, I was reading some great headlines the other day around that regarding the euphoria of, of

having a new president and how bullish the world is that we have a new president in case except, of

course, the people that really don't like Mr. Trump, they're not too bullish.

But yeah, most of the world is though, they know he's pretty business friendly.

So here, here's some headlines that that I was reading.

The president will lower tax and be business friendly and was elected on a platform of protectionism

and tariffs which will make the United States really strong.

Interest rates have been lower to stimulate the economy.

Reserve requirements that banks have been reduced.

So the money supply in the United States has increased by 60% to get consumers to borrow and buy

and get the economy rock and rolling margin account balances of people boring to buy.

Stocks are at record levels.

This all gives us a feeling of prosperity when it comes to the stock market.

So people have started to speculate or gamble in the investment world, real estate is also doing really

well as FOMO or the fear of missing out.

The president has also announced deportation of a million or more illegal immigrants back to Mexico.

That makes Americans believe that they're going to have more jobs, less than unemployment.

Everything like that. It sounds pretty good eh, Cam?

The math is starting to match the Cinderella economy.

U.S. economic headlines are indeed positive under the Trump presidency, at least in my world.

So the attitude of advisors in my world is let's rock'n'roll.

However, I tricked you again here.

These, these headlines, I listed above, even though they sound exactly like today, they're not from

today.

They're actually from the 1920s when Herbert Hoover was president in the roaring 20s.

And those indeed were all the things that he did.

President Hoover placed tariffs and deported 1.8 million people Back to Mexico.

At that time he called it the Great Repatriation.

Hoover's bull market was followed as you know-the Roaring 20s was incredible bull market where the

stock market quadrupled.

Unfortunately, it was followed by an 89% market crash.

The stock market stayed down for 20 years and created the Great Depression.

7000 U.S. banks failed and unemployment hit 25%.

That's quite a bit more than the three to 6% unemployment we have today.

Yeah, that's a pretty dooming gloom scenario.

Yeah, I guess you're taking the bad side of the good, bad and ugly.

I've taken the old guy-bad side.

I have to be optimistic. I'm just a little bit younger than you are.

Yeah, I've got no choice.

Well, Mr. Trump and all the investment advisors, I think, Cam, need to read their history books before

going all in, because President Trump, if he fulfills all his provinces, he's about to do exactly what

President Hoover did.

But am I predicting a stock market crash?

No, no, I'm not, because no one knows if the market's going to crash.

You can't get run over by a train you can see coming.

So no one knows what's going to happen under the Trump presidency.

It may be the best stock market in the world.

It might have a crash. You know.

What are your thoughts?

You know what, with all those stars aligning like President Hoover's, it's really hard to say.

The history does rhyme.

It doesn't always mirror itself.

But there's a lot of differences between now and 1929, obviously.

Got to look at the other side of the coin.

I'll take the good half of the good and bad ugly today.

You know, back in 1929, there was no Federal Reserve or Bank of Canada.

There's no social safety Nets like EI.

There was no old age security or Canada Pension Plan.

There certainly wasn't a Canadian Deposit Insurance Corp or the Canadian Investor Protection Fund.

So there's all those backstops that are in place nowadays.

If there was a Fed Reserve back in 29, I have a hard time feeling that, that Great Depression actually

would have happened.

Yeah, that's true, right.

So, but stock markets do predict the future.

They're always leading indicators on the economy.

And AI is going to be increasing productivity, similar to the 1990s tech boom.

So there is a lot of optimism going there.

If President Trump does fall through those promises like lowering interest rates, cutting taxes,

increasing oil supply, deregulating the business world, then all of that is all catalysts for increased

corporate profits and with that, increased stock prices.

You know, I think I think he'll do that.

I really do.

Because you know what, he likes to make money.

So that's why I think he will do a lot of that stuff.

Yeah.

What did he say last time he made a civilian office?

“How's your 401ks doing?”

Yeah, Yeah.

And you can bet he's shorting and longing some investments on his own.

But anyways, you didn't hear it here.

I don't have a clue what Donald Trump's doing. So.

But no, Cam's right.

Technology is a huge inflection point.

I lived through it in the 90s and saw a crash in 2000, obviously.

But it's even more staggering this time than it was in the 90s.

I think in 1900, for example, it took 150 years to double all human knowledge on the planet.

1945 it took 25 years.

In 2020, we were excited because it was taking two days only to double all human knowledge on the

planet.

Guess what it is today, 12 hours.

Every 12 hours all human knowledge on the planet is doubling.

If that's not going to have an effect over, a positive effect over corporations and corporate profit, I

don't really know what will.

The markets might be a little overheated.

We're starting to see some crazy crap recently.

For example, it's Sotheby’s’ auction the other day, on November 8th, a crypto investor, Justin Son,

paid the Italian artist Mauricio Cartland $6.2 million for a beautiful piece of art entitled The Comedian.

Now, you know, you might be going taken for a ride of your piece of art.

It's called The Comedian.

Yeah, no doubt.

And yes, it is a banana. Duct tape to a wall.

It's a $6.2 million banana.

It was reported that after he bought it, he tore it off the wall and ate it.

Did you bring your lunch?

Got a banana in there?

No Riley eats all the bananas.

I'll bring the duct tape.

So as always, we're going to have to participate the best in your plan, but prepare for the worst when

we see crap like this going on.

As always, we remain cautious so we don't damage your family or send you back to work.

If you are retired, we will not mark a time around this kind of background noise as the Federal Reserve

may continue with the soft landing.

And you would miss wonderful years.

You really would.

So we're not going to get cute and go to the sidelines, but we're prepared.

The stock market has dropped roughly every five years for 100 years, and they'll do so.

They'll continue to do so long after I'm not on this planet or you're not on this planet too.

But remember the other side of the coin is when the stock market rises, it rises 80% of the time and it

only drops 20% of the time.

And remember 80% of your investment success will be termed by not getting too euphoric in the

good times like now and gamble instead of invest.

And on the other side, not capitulating and selling at the bottom when your investments are having

bad times.

The markets has corrected every five years, we know it'll come again.

So guess what we're going to do?

We're going to take advantage of opportunities when that happens.

The third piece of good news that we want to share with you today is that, as you know, we moved to

a new fantastic home, namely National Bank.

Yes, thank you, everybody.

From all of us here at the Gustafson-Lienau Advisory Group, from the bottom of our hearts, Brad and I

can't thank you enough for moving with us.

When advisors move an institution, a financial institution, typically it takes about 12 to 16 months to

move all of the clients over.

And there's only about 50 to 70% of the clients will follow their advisors during those changes.

And we are so, so honored that effectively 100% more client families have come with us, except for

one that we're actually going to be meeting with this week here to have a have a sit down.

So thank you again for signing all of those documents and DocuSign and working through that

arduous process with us.

We know how much work it was to go through those mountains of paperwork because guess who

also had to sign all those forms too?

This guy right here.

So you broke a lot of records, and I'll show you this graph here.

We actually tracked our transition process.

Couple things about it.

First off, the title is Bee Gees because that's what National Bank had for a code name for our team.

They like to stick to a theme of rock bands or old bands I guess, and it seemed fitting that we were the

Bee Gees.

We care for about 150 families, including children as well.

So that leads to about 225 couples.

And here's the results.

90% of you gave us the verbal yes within that first week that you're going to work with us continually.

And all clients except for the one family that we're still up to meet with have completed paperwork

and their hard earned savings have all been moved over here by day 70.

So during this transition, there was some eyebrows even the President of National Bank Financial

Wealth Management called us and said we did not know that a move could be completed this fast.

Now we're still cleaning up a few items for some of you.

However, as a couple weeks ago, we're resuming normal operations and we started to meet with the

referrals, start to continue on our regular review cycle and continue with all of the regular financial

planning after this interruption.

So stay tuned.

Early next year, Brittlyn is going to be announcing the details of a big red carbon event for you and all

of your families to attend.

Brittlyn is currently interviewing some venues as we speak.

We're going to need a big place to house all everybody.

You know, I feel it's really weird when you're talking a long time like that because I'm sitting here

nodding that you're talking now.

You know how I feel.

Kind of reminds you when we're watching the Prime Minister or someone standing beside the

nodding.

So all kidding aside, there's quite a few reasons we moved.

Some of you asked, you know, why the heck did you guys go through this?

And you know, I'm moving at my age was the last thing I wanted to do.

There's many reasons we moved.

Number one, size and safety.

National Bank over here, managed $653 billion or way over half a trillion dollars.

Stable history equals a stable future.

The bank's 165 years old and, and the independent wealth division where we work, where we reside is

122 years old.

And no, I wasn't there when the doors came.

I promise.

The most important thing which I got in writing, you know, I'm too old to be told what to do.

So the most important thing that I wanted writing was autonomy.

So we're free.

We know for sure we are free to operate independently from the bank.

We do not have to use their investments.

We can use the 60 any of the 68,000 investments out there that we want and continue to run the

business the way we want to and the way we've always ran it in an ethical client centric man.

Well that was so, so very important.

We know without all of you that we don't have jobs.

Therefore, the ability to continue white glove services paramount.

It was paramount in our decision to move.

National Bank will be a good partner in that goal.

I did, I did quite a lengthy due diligence on that for the last several years

Now National Bank is ranked #1 every year in the JD Powers Client Service survey.

And this was very important to me.

This, this graph as well as many other things, safety.

You know, all the banks and, and financial institutions I interviewed, they all had cyber walls like any

other business.

What's unique is National Bank has also employed hackers to play defense against other hackers to

give that extra level of safety to your money.

And, and that sure made me feel really, really safe.

Yeah.

And coming over here, the entire team did follow us except for one person.

So we need to search across Canada, find somebody to fill those shoes and we're very grateful that

we've found someone with even more experience actually to run our paperwork processing and the

compliance desk.

So last month, Tracy Spence, you may see some emails coming in from her already has moved from

Toronto to take over our vacant desk here on the team.

A little bit about her.

She has 30 years’ experience in this role.

She's been a past winner of the highest performance award with one of her past employers.

She's worked at several banks and including National Bank in the past and fits in and shares with the

team the love of the clients and the higher purpose of caring for families.

Most importantly, she does laugh at Brad's dad jokes as well, too.

That's a must to try and fit in here.

Good timing.

Yeah.

So we have yet to get some new head shots done up.

So we'll be bringing Tracy in here shortly so you can get a a quick look at her and and put a face to

the name.

“Hi, I'm Tracy.

I'm very excited to meet all of you.”

But presently, the team in no particular order.

Many of you know Brittlyn already, she's our operations manager and really the circus leader.

We've got Jeremy who's our experienced plan writer with years of planning experience and he even

worked at banks before, lending experience as well too.

Augustine's our support member for anything administrative wise when it comes to your accounts and

now Tracy here as well, obviously joining in too.

So big team to be able to continue that white glove service approach.

I want to close also and back up what Cam said.

Thank you, thank you, thank you so much.

I'm personally humbled that you all followed us.

It, it's a heck of a compliment.

Thank you so, so much.

I also want to thank the team, though obviously they work side by side with Cam and I on many

weekends and well into the evening during this process till I started to lose my voice.

They made fun of me because I had a bag of throat lozenges behind my desk during the transition,

but they backed me up through all of that.

I'm also very proud of a man who's like a son to me, which is, which is Cam right here.

He stepped up and took possession of the administrative part of the practice through this move and

freed me up to work on the business, making it a Better Business instead of getting buried in the

business and the paperwork and admin minutia of the practice.

And I'd like I've, I've told some of you and I happy to announce to all of you that I've changed the

name of our business from Gustafson Associates to Gustafson-Lienau Advisory Group.

I guess that stands for GLAG

I Google GLAG, there's nothing bad.

We're OK.

We're not going to get sued.

I'm glad that it doesn't mean anything shifty or anything.

I sure hope not.

I didn't think about that.

Also, our legal department is putting the finishing touches on a succession contract as we speak to

ensure if I fall ill or croak on you, that Cam will take you and your family over the finish line for the rest

of your entire life.

And that sounds like a small thing, but it gives me a giant amount of comfort.

I was in a car accident on the highway the Callaway park in 19…

Sorry, 2021. See, that's why I need a successor.

I forget what century it is, and that's probably the post-concussion.

Yeah, so.

But it was in 2021 during COVID and I'm sitting on the side of the highway in the ditch waiting for an

ambulance and thinking “what about my family? What about the clients? What about the practice?”

And it gave me a lot of comfort to know that if Cam was here and it would be all OK if anything bad

happened to me after that accident.

So it means a lot to me to have an honorable partner like Cam.

Thank you to him for your continued mentorship.

It's seven years now on the team and I, I couldn't be more grateful and happier for working with you

and everything I've learned and, and getting to know all of you as well too.

Like our clients, it's feels like one giant family and something that we love to do on a day in and day

out.

And that's the reason why we come to work every day.

So from all of us at the Gustafson-Lienau Advisory Group, we want to say thank you very much and

wish you all a wonderful holiday season.

“Happy Holidays and Happy New Year to everyone.”

National Bank Financial - Wealth Management (NBFWM) is a division of National Bank Financial Inc. (NBF), as well as a trademark owned by National Bank of Canada (NBC) that is used under license by NBF. NBF is a member of the Canadian Investment Regulatory Organization (CIRO) and the Canadian Investor Protection Fund (CIPF), and is a wholly-owned subsidiary of NBC, a public company listed on the Toronto Stock Exchange (TSX: NA). 

Economic news

Economic Impact

To keep you informed and stimulate your thinking, Stéfane Marion and Nancy Paquet take a look at economic news and share their perspectives in our monthly informative videos.

Hello everyone. Welcome to Economic Impact. We are Tuesday, April 28th, 2026. Stéfane, great to have you here as always.

Likewise, Nancy.

It seems like nothing happened since the last time we spoke a month ago.

Yeah, well, many things happened, but we left a month ago, oil prices were $100. They're back to $100. So, nothing has changed. It's still one of the important oil shocks that we faced since the 1970s when expressed in 2026 dollars. So, it's a considerable oil shock that refuses to go away.

Hmm, something else happened in Canada, right?

Um, yes, we did get a majority government for the first time in over five years. So, that might be something to celebrate to the extent that optimal policies are deployed to bring investment back to our shores. That would be a positive.

That would be. And last time we spoke, now we're day 59 of the Iran War, so what's happening with the Strait of Hormuz?

Nothing happened. It's still closed, unfortunately. And we do monitor this on a regular basis, so I encourage people to go to our website. We have a special product called Monitoring the Iran War and people will be able to stay informed on that one. So unfortunately, still shut down and we are running out of inventories aside from oil. It's a big deal. So, the manufacturing supply chain is still held hostage from the shutting down of the Strait of Hormuz.

So, we're all just out of COVID with this shock and now back to another shock where it's impacting our reality.

Yeah, the last time the supply the manufacturing supply chain was impacted, you're right, you have to go back to COVID. And at this point in time, when you look at the probability by Polymarket of, you know, seeing a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, you know, roughly 2% for the next, you know, we've only had two days, right.

Not gonna happen.

And then you only have 40%, below 50%. So, it looks like not reopening before June. So, you have another month of depleting inventories. That's going to have an impact on the supply chain. 

Definitely. And there's a lot of things that are going through the Strait of Hormuz.

Yeah.

Not just gas.

No, you're right. And we mentioned it last time where we didn't show it. So, this time around, say roughly 20% of energy flows, whether it's LNG or crude oil goes to the Strait of Hormuz. But look at helium 33%, aluminum production 8%. This has been destroyed. It's not coming back online anytime soon. You wanna do, if you want to grow food, you know, you need fertilizers. That's a big deal. Plastic, we have plastic economies. Well, that's also really important. 20% of NAFTA goes through the Strait of Hormuz. So yes, the supply, the manufacturing supply chain, I would argue is more negatively impacted than when we saw the Ukraine oil shock.

Wow. And fertilizer. So, finally spring is here in Canada so we're going to grow our gardens, vegetables, fruits, probably the prices are going to go higher.

Well, if energy prices go up and fertilizer goes up, I think it's a pretty good chance that food prices will go up. So yes, Ottawa said we're going to give you a rebate on GST. But, you know, reopening the Strait of Hormuz will have a greater impact in the short term, you know, GST rebates. So unfortunately, yes, food prices are going to be increasing in the coming weeks.

And even though this is all happening, we have the best market, equity market ever.

A new record high as of yesterday. It's a little bit tougher today. So, new all time high. There are no precedents going back to 1956 for an oil shock that is accompanied with a new all time high on global equities. It's fascinating, it's unexpected. The market will find, will always find a way to humiliate, you know, people that say, well, you know, I thought it was going to be more negative. The market has found a way. And it's not just, you know, global equities that are up, Nancy, it's even more than that. Every asset class is up here today. Bonds, you would think more inflation not good for bonds, but everything is up.

This was negative the last call we did and now it's back up.

It's back up. So, you did have a, I'll give you that. Yes, you're right. We did have a drawdown of roughly 8%, but 8% is very small considering that in every prior oil shock, you were down at least 20% on U.S. equity. So being down only 8% was quite the achievement when you think about it. And now we're back up 5%. It's a good point, Nancy. There was a market drawdown, but it was very short-lived and people said, no, this thing is going to reopen with no impact on the medium-term economic outlook.

And look at this emerging market.

Up 15. We're not bad, we're the second best. So, good news on that one. Yeah.

So, Asia has a very interesting emerging market. And I guess that's what's contributing to this amazing number.

And they're not supposed to be up because they're theoretically the most negatively impacted by the shutting down of the Strait of Hormuz because you impact global manufacturing, which is mostly located in Asia. But Emerging Asia is saying the best upward earnings revisions since the Asian crisis, which was a massive disturbance to the economy 1997-1998. So, this is unprecedented. And again, it's also global. So, these earnings revisions reflect not just the fact that, yes, Samsung, semiconductors, Korea seeing a big revival.

Artificial intelligence, all of that.

True, but there's pricing power also returning to Chinese producers because they control 32% of global manufacturing. So, if you shut down the ability to get inventories from the Strait of Hormuz and if I control 32% of global manufacturing, Nancy, I will raise prices.

Of course.

And that's exactly what's happening right now.

Of course. And if we look at your predictions or the earnings per share.

Not mine, not mine.

Not yours.

They're not mine.

The ones that you're showing.

This is company guidance. So, we started the year and we said, oh, my God, these profit expectations are ambitious, 15%, that would have been 50% higher than last year. That's a big deal. You know where we are now, 22%.

53.6.

For Emerging Asia, emerging countries generally speaking, yes, 53%. Aside from Japan, everybody's seeing an acceleration earnings. As I said, we flagged this a few months ago and said no, that's quite ambitious. Now it's even more ambitious because people are saying, well, companies will be able to raise prices and therefore protect profit margins. But I don't know again that I can promise you that everyone's going to be better off if you shut down the Strait of Hormuz for another month.

Definitely. But those are very impressive numbers.

And if you do, there's going to be higher inflation. If there's higher inflation, what do you think central banks are going to do?

They're going to raise interest rates again. U.S. dollars in all of these circumstances, what's happening? 

It's risk on.

Risk on.

Risk on means U.S. dollar down so we're back to the cyclical low. Back to square 1.

So, there's no refuge anymore in the U.S. dollar.

No, people are not fearing the outlook. So, they're saying we're not taking refuge into it. It's not the safe haven that I need at this point in time. It's a reflation trade. It's a steepening of the yield curve. So, people are saying the worst is behind us. I just can't promise you this right now, Nancy, because we don't know the full dynamic of shutting down the Strait of Hormuz for another month. Will I disappoint on the earnings front? And you better not disappoint me if I'm expecting 22% PPS.

Of course. And I know on this you and I don't agree, but even though the U.S. dollar is going down or back to what it was at the beginning of the year, for us Canadians wanting to go on vacation because it's May very soon, we don't really see.

That's the frustration of somebody traveling to the Eurozone because the Canadian dollar's at 1.60 against the Euro. And I agree with you, our fundamentals are better than the Eurozone. So, I will tell you we should have an appreciation of the Canadian dollar, but not in time for your vacation. But I do believe that with what's happening in commodity markets, we are likely to be noticed from foreign investors, and I think that could be positive for the Canadian dollar.

That's great. And Canadian, Canada, it's not just oil.

So, listen to this, a cheaper U.S. dollar normally means higher commodity prices. That's exactly where we are. So, energy, which accounts for 52% of our commodity exports from Canada, is at a very high level. But there's not just energy. There's metals which is 23% of commodity exports. Near, at a record high. Agricultural products, yes, I know higher food prices, but some provinces will benefit from that. So, aside from the forestry sector, which is being pummeled by.

The tariffs and.

Oh my God, prohibitive tariff structure from the U.S., the rest is doing okay. And that leads to a situation where governments can afford to be a little bit more generous than they had assumed before the Strait of Hormuz.

And there's something special this afternoon.

Yes, we have a fiscal update. And just because of what's happening to commodity prices, I think the federal government will need to upgrade its forecast for revenue growth from 3% to 5%, providing them with the ability to, if you want, experiment with new ways of attracting investment to Canada, such as the sovereign fund mentioned by the Prime Minister not too long ago. But notice for some provinces such as Alberta, which was tabling for only 1.9% revenue growth to looking at 7%, So a $9 billion deficit might turn out to be a $20 billion surplus. For Saskatchewan, you're talking about, you know, close to 10% because the price of fertilizer's moving up and down the potash. Yeah. So that's a big deal. So, all in all, every region is benefiting from higher commodity prices, but it's most apparent at the federal level and in Alberta and Saskatchewan. So, that's see, that's the positive wealth effect that comes from higher commodity prices. And that's the reason I think the Canadian dollar could appreciate in the coming months, provided that, you know, foreigners are saying, wow, Canada's for real. This fiscal update to be tabled this afternoon will entice us to invest more in Canada and we're starting to see it in the energy sector, right.

So, I know what you're doing this afternoon.

Yes, I have to monitor what Ottawa's doing and I'll be debriefing you. It's going to be on our website if you want, and we'll see what happens next month. But yes, the message today again is like, I don't know what happens if another month of shut down the Strait of Hormuz. I can't promise to deliver all these profits.

So, thank you, Stéfane. Always interesting as usual. I guess it's important to repeat that every research that you do and the graphs for the war in Iran, you can follow. You're gonna have the link to our website. So, definitely mark this up and go and see every day, every other day so that we can benefit from your knowledge and the one from your team. And for all of us listening to this, there's a lot of volatility. There's a lot of expectations. So, I guess the best thing to do is talk to your advisor, stick to your plans. It's not because the markets are moving that I will change my date of travel or retirement. So, stick to your plans. Go and see your advisors. And again, Stéfane, always a pleasure to be with you. 

May I say, make sure your jet has jet fuel on the way back, right?

On the way back. To go it's okay, on the way back I might have to stay two days extra, but we'll see. So, thank you everyone, and we'll see you next month.

5 • 4 • 3 Market Outlook

5 minutes, 4 graphs, 3 key takeaways! Discover a fresh focused quarterly review of markets, the economy and investments with expert Louis Lajoie from our CIO Office.

Hello everyone. Today, March 16. I'm going to try to quickly review a quarter during which a lot has happened, and a lot is still happening as we speak.

Without further ado, I think the best way to summarize the last few weeks is just to point out that we've essentially witnessed a substantial and rapid increase in the pace of change across multiple fronts. Specifically on the geopolitical front with what's going on in Iran as we speak, but also under the technological front with ongoing advances in AI, which have been raising a lot of questions for a lot of businesses. From a high-level point of view, the consequence of all of this is to raise uncertainty at a new scale. And we should probably get used to that because we used to be talking about uncertainty from a cyclical point of view. But nowadays, we believe that uncertainty has become structural. And again, this raises a lot of questions. But for today, I think we should just take some time to look at what the market has been telling us over the last year in terms of consequences. And the market has been telling us essentially three things, one of which being that we should expect bouts of volatility as we have seen last year during the tariff tantrum, but as we're seeing more recently. But beyond this volatility, we are still witnessing a pretty good resilience on the part of markets, which goes to show that beyond these shocks, economic activity is still somewhat moving forward, although this is only true if you're adequately diversified because within the equity investment universe, we are seeing substantial divergence across sectors, but also across geographies. For instance, U.S. equities are still lagging, essentially flat since last October, whereas you're seeing better gains elsewhere, although this gap has narrowed recently, which again goes to show that volatility is also being felt within the equity investment universe. And the reason why U.S. equities have been doing a little better recently is that they're less sensitive to rising energy prices, as we are witnessing. And for good reasons, because there's just no more important choke point for energy markets than the infamous Strait of Hormuz, which is practically closed as we speak. Nevertheless, oil prices have not increased as much as what we saw during the Russian invasion of Ukraine in early 2022. And most importantly, you're seeing that markets are treating this situation as being partly temporary, in the sense that futures prices—so the price for a barrel of oil 12 months from now—have increased. There are long-term consequences here, but just not as much as you're seeing for more short-term prices, which is reasonable in the sense that the current situation is just unsustainable for all parties involved. We'll have to monitor this because unfortunately the range of scenarios here is still pretty wide. But for today, what I would emphasize is that there are reasons to believe that we're not going to be repeating what we saw in 2022, which many of you will remember as a pretty challenging year for both equities and bonds. Because back then, you have to remember that just before the Russian invasion of Ukraine, we were already seeing leading economic indicators pointing towards a deceleration in economic activity. Whereas today, it's rather the opposite, in the sense that leading indicators are pointing to a cyclical upturn, which we were starting to see recently, but which is arguably, and most definitely, more at risk here. Let's be clear, given that we're going to be seeing inflation be much higher than we hoped before this Iran situation emerged.

Three takeaways for today. From a high-level point of view, it's not complicated here. We are undergoing a period of profound and vast changes, which creates a lot of uncertainty, which makes markets quite volatile, especially within the equity market universe. If you're adequately diversified here, the damage is pretty limited. And when you look at it, there are reasons to believe that this combination—volatility, resilience, and divergence—will remain the story over the next few months. Although the resilience part will be put to the test here, because risks around the scenario have undeniably increased given the rise in energy prices and global commodity prices, and the consequences for inflation. 

That's it for today. Thank you for listening and we will talk again in June. Have a great spring everyone. 

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