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Hello everyone, my name is Joseph-Antoine Migdilani. Today I am with Karim Zakher, our portfolio manager, and welcome to our quarterly web capsule. Before we start, we just want to apologize quickly because our video is going to be delayed a little bit this time. We were usually posting this video beginning of October, but Karim Zakher was in a conference outside of Canada with some economists and other people from the industry and you came up with a couple of good points that you shared with me and let's start with the first one concerning health and care.

Right, so hello everyone. This was a very interesting conference where we had two speakers that were very interesting. The first one has nothing to do with finance. It has to do with your health. And it was this health coach that came on, and this health coach described pretty much what everybody goes through in life. We have two accounts, everybody. We have the health account, and you have your wealth account.

Everybody starts with a health account that's full. Meaning you're healthy. When you're young, you start off your life. And your wealth account when you're starting off is empty most of the time for most people, right? What happens through life is we get into our career. Some of us become workaholics. We devote our life to our career. We have a family. We raise the children. And what happens over time is your wealth account tends to go up while your health account starts to diminish. And so, we end up in a situation where we reach the age of 65 or 70 and you reached your goals financially, but health wise it's in the tank. You're not doing very well because you spent all that effort, all that stress.

So, the goal here would be to have a balance in life. And it kind of hit me because I've seen a lot of people come to retire then they live 10 or 15 years of illnesses during their retirement. I mean what's the use of having a happy retirement if you're going to be sick all the time? So, she gave us all a challenge in the hall and many people couldn't do it and she asked us to stand up and to try and stand on one leg for one minute.

And I give this challenge to all of you. Try and stand on one leg for one minute. If you can do that, you're in fairly good shape. Try both legs. The goal would be to stand up on each leg for two minutes. That's the ultimate goal. Another challenge she gave: Were you able to?

I was not able to believe it or not. Now I am because I've been practicing for about a month. But at first, I couldn't do it. I couldn't last more than 20 seconds. Mind you I'm flatfooted so it's a little different.

On the other hand, she also gave us another challenge: to be able to get to the floor, lie on the floor and try and get up without using both your hands. Either hand, no hands. Try and get up. So, if you could do that, odds are by the time you reach the age of 65, you'll have good mobility, which means that you'll probably be healthy, and you'll have a healthy retirement.

So, something to consider.

Absolutely. And now talking about our portfolio.

For our clients, good news is that probably the wealth account went up, right?

That's precisely the case. So far this year the wealth account has risen meaning the portfolios are going up. We hope it's going to continue until the end of the year. I think it will. There's going to be volatility. It's normal. It's never a straight line, but I do see a good end of 2025. And on top of that, don't forget we had a good 2023 and 2024. That will make three consecutive positive strong years for all the portfolios in general. 2022 was not a good year. But the last three years made up for 2022 by a long shot.

And where do you think we're heading for the next few months or year?

They brought a second speaker to the conference who was an economist at one of the major big banks in Europe. What I do is we take all that information from many economists, from strategists, from stock analysts, bond analysts, put it all together and try to come to a conclusion on how to position the portfolios going forward.

And so I think we're at an inflection point. I think we're entering a period that's similar to the 1930s and similar to the 1970s. What happened? That's in the 1970s because more people have lived through that period than the 1930s. Between 1968 and 1980, the markets haven't done very well. They did nothing during a 12-year period. What has done well during that same period are commodities.

Why is that? Well, the situation back then is very similar to the situation that we're starting to encounter today. Governments are spending a lot of money to get the economy going. When you spend a lot of money means you have to print a lot of money. When you print a lot of money, you devalue the currency. When you devalue the currency, it becomes inflationary. When it becomes inflationary, what happens? Interest rates start to go up. So to be able to hedge oneself from inflation, you have to start considering owning real assets.

And we're talking precious metals. We're talking critical minerals. We're talking commodities in general. A lot of people don't like commodities because they're cyclical, but they are a hedge against inflation.

And so, I believe that the portfolios that we're looking at are going to be considering some potentially some changes going forward. You want to be exposed to financials because I expect the midterm interest rates, meaning one to six years, to either stay flat or drop a little bit. Not very much, but what's going to happen is the long rate is going to go up probably quite a bit. And when that happens, the yield curve on the bond market steepens. Now, this makes banks more profitable and makes life insurance companies more profitable and property casualty insurance companies because what simple math what they do is they give you nothing in your checking account like 0.1 yet they lend that they take that money and they lend it at a higher rate, the long-term rate. So, it makes it very profitable for the financial sector.

Another sector that we need to maintain a position on where there's definite growth and I think we're at the beginning stages still is the artificial intelligence sector. A lot of businesses, a lot of corporations are integrating artificial intelligence into their companies. We're starting to see layoffs from software companies. You wonder why, like why are software companies laying off? I mean, it's a growth industry. Well, because a lot of the work can be done by artificial intelligence, which means that the businesses, the companies, the shares are going to gain in value because of efficiencies.

It's unfortunate for people who may be subject to losing their jobs. They're going to have to readjust, but I don't think it's going to be drastic from the job loss side.

And of course, we have to maintain defense, meaning companies like pharma, healthcare, in order to diversify the portfolio accordingly. So these are the positions we're going to be looking at going into the next 3 to 6 months. Going to look at maybe doing some changes.

Perfect.

In order to benefit from this inflection point that's going to start transpiring with time.

Thank you so much. Very well explained. And I always finish the quarterly web capsule by saying that we are here to assist you for financial planning, estate planning, tax planning, talk about insurance as well. So if you have any question, it's part of our offer. So it's completely free. Just reach out and we're going to be more than happy to book a meeting with you. And thank you so much for watching the video and talk to you next time.

Hello everyone, my name is Joseph-Antoine Migdilani. Today I am with Karim Zakher, our portfolio manager. Welcome to our quarterly web capsule. So already in July, Karim, um uh weather has been pretty great since the beginning of the summer. Have you been you've been enjoying uh the summer so far?

Absolutely. I love summer. Uh I've been uh I've been cycling a lot this year, which uh it relaxes it relaxes me. Um it calms our nerves. Absolutely.

And I just want to say congratulations to you, Joseph, for having uh a new member to your family.

Absolutely. A little girl. Yeah. Congratulations.

We're super happy. Great news.

Thank you, Karim. My wife and I are super happy. The nights are uh shorter a little bit, but uh it's uh absolutely worth it. Absolutely. It's a beautiful thing.

Yeah, absolutely. So, uh let's jump right into the finance. Karim, uh market has been doing pretty good so far. Um and I just want to I just want to go back like five years ago and and remember our clientele that we've been facing a lot of a lot of things like the market have been facing pandemic tariff uh war interest rate hike like a lot of things happened but market still doing pretty good so why don't you talk about it a little bit

yeah I'd love to um a lot's been thrown at this market and in including latest one the tariffs and uh this market's been extremely resilient um even though we we did encounter a correction this year of about 20% the S&P 500 uh from February 19th all the way to April 8th of this year and it's incredible how the market just just came back it had a Vshape Vshape recovery very fast.

Mhm. Uh considering everything that's been thrown at it.

Yeah. You know, so um this this uh this affects a lot of the nerves for investors. Uh we've gone through many shocks as you've just described. Uh but consider the following. Okay. Why did the market still come back in in this year in 2025? Well, first off, Trump imposed tariffs and he watered them down. So the market's becoming used to whatever he says doesn't seem to stick all the way. Uh secondly, we had economists all over the planet believing that the US was going to hit a recession and we have yet to see it in the United States. Canada's feeling it a bit, but the US doesn't doesn't hit it at all. So uh that means that a lot of people have been selling stocks uh and and sitting on the sidelines and and and then the last uh point is we had a waterfall decline in you know February to April and uh the V-shaped recovery which means that sentiment in general is still quite bearish. It's very negative. Again a lot of money sitting on the sidelines. Um people don't feel good about this bull market. Actually, it's one of the most hated bull markets. People are scared of it to death, but yet the market is resilient, continues to go up and and we've hit all-time high.

So, the markets have hit all-time highs end of June. Uh our portfolios are are hitting all-time highs as well. Uh our growth portfolios are performing outstandingly. Um even though the even the safest portfolio is doing decent, a lot better than what a GIC would pay at a bank for sure.

Uh so overall we've had a good 6 months and I invite all our clients to look at their statements and compare the statements you get in in July which would be the end of June statement. Compare it to the end of December and you'll see the progression of your portfolio considering all we've been through.

Yeah. So we've had a lot of people panic actually. I remember uh in in February and March very few uh sold uh we were able to convince clients to stay the course invested and so it's paid off. Uh unfortunately those who sold out well they left a lot of money on the table. So, as long as you hold good quality investments, Joseph, such as bonds, uh, gold bullion, and you hold good companies, good stocks with strong balance sheets and are very resilient in their industries, uh, the stock market will price earnings growth. Short-term, it's emotions that drive the prices, but long term, it's always the fundamentals of business that drive the prices.

And I remember a couple of weeks ago, you gave me a stat. Uh I think it was like the market is supposed to go up 70% of the time. Is that it?

Well, that that's exactly the point is that stock market, if you look back at history, even go back 100 years. The market has a tendency to go up 70% of the time. And we've had a lot of problems in the world over the last h 100red years. I don't have to to explain what they are. Everybody knows. Everybody lived it. We just lived through a whole slew of them in the last 5 years. It brings me to my second question, Karim. Um, we're half of the year now. Um, what are your expectations for the next uh six months?

So, normally when we get a 20% correction in a year, statistically, the odds of having another drop in the market 6 months later are very low. They're practically 0%. We may stagnate for a little while. Um, but to have another correction after we've had a correction of 20 over 20% for the S&P 500, I don't see it happening. I think it's possible, but it's highly unlikely.

Okay. Okay. So, I'm still positive into the end of the year and into the next 12 months.

Great. Throw in the fact uh that the US Federal Reserve is under pressure to cut interest rates. So is Canada. So we expect drops of at least uh at least two two interest rate cuts maybe a quarter point each if not this year definitely most definitely by next year. Uh throw in the fact that people are becoming immunized to the the Trump tariff news which is helping the market. And lastly, we're going into an election year in 2026 in the United States, the midterm election, and which means that, you know, the House is up for grabs and the Senate is up for grabs. And of course, the government in power doesn't want to doesn't want to seed its power to another another political party. So, the the government is most likely going to be market friendly for sure. All this to say that I'm expecting a decent end ofear performance. Okay. And possibly into the next year.

Great. So, I would remain invested and when you do see these opportunities where the markets drop, it's the time to be buying. I we've always said that. And yet, uh when people choose to stay on the sidelines and wait for a better time to get in, guess what? By the time you feel good, the ship has sailed. too late. Yeah. So, I would just say stay the course. Hopefully, we'll have a nice end of year performance for all the portfolios.

Thanks, Karim. And uh just to finish uh I want to remind everyone that if you have any questions concerning concerning your investments, if you have more time this summer because it's a little bit more quiet, you could reach out to review your strategy of investments. We could do a financial plan, retirement plan if we can help you, a member of a family or friends. Please don't hesitate to reach out and uh we're going to be more than happy to book a meeting with you.

Thank you.

Hi everyone, my name is Joseph Antoine Migdilani today I am with Karim Zakher our portfolio manager. Welcome to our quarterly web capsule, before we start I want to remind you that the reason why we do these capsules is to inform, educate and keep you posted with the world of finance so don't forget to subscribe if you like our videos and to share with family and friends, we’re going to be very happy if you do so and if you have any questions don't hesitate to reach us after the video. So, because we are in the tax season I just want to start by two little points, the first one is that the government of Canada decided to remove his new rule with the tax inclusion for the capital gain we're going back to the original where 50% will be taxable on capital gain that's great news um of course it happens during an election period but uh we'll take it it's candy and we'll definitely take it and we’ll see what happens in the future if they reverse that rule again after they get elected but anyway that's that’s, that’s another story we'll see but we'll take it absolutely and the second point is that I wanted to let you know that all the tax slip or fiscal documents are now available online so for our clients you could go on our website or national bank financial website to get that and to send it to your accountant before the April 30th, for the tax of 2024. So now let’s talk about the market right uh how do you feel Karim about the market right now and uh let's talk about the first quarter a little bit as well yeah so the first quarter uh Joseph uh it's two words tariff trump that's all I got to say uh thing is we've had a correction in the month of March these corrections happen,10% corrections for the S&P 500 tend to happen every 18 months on average so we're pretty much at that point and um there is a new index that's out it's called uh the macro research economic policy index that exists since 1985 it measures the level of uncertainty among investors in the US in particular might be pretty high right now it's at a peak and whenever it's at a peak the S&P 500 after the correction occurs the S&P 500 has a tendency to go up 80% of the time really with an average return of 8.8% now nothing's guaranteed nothing's set in stone sure but it's we'll take it we'll take it, I think it's a positive.A positive index so when we reach peak uncertainty honestly it's the time to be buying not selling and I'm going to give you examples very recent examples uh that most people already most likely forgot the corrections 2018 2020 and 2022, a lot of people say some people are going to say we had a correction in 2018 we certainly did it was Trump 1.0 was his first mandate yeahthe fourth quarter of 2018 particularlybetween Christmas and New Year's we hada pretty big drop in the markets for theexact same reason trump tariffs what happened afterwards is 2019 while the markets went up 2020 I think everybody remembers that one it's the pandemic where we had a V-shaped Yeah correction yeah uh we've had cases some clients who couldn't take it they was the end of the world they wanted out i got them out unfortunately at the wrong time, i suggested not to do that they did it any some of them did it anyway the majority 99% listen but 1% do what they feel is best for them which is fine I I totally respect that and they liquidated at the worst possible time and what happened the central banks plowed a lot of liquidity into the world markets and guess what happened market rebounded and it actually the year 2020 was a positive year for the market believe it or was not greatly positive but it was positive where we were down like 20 to 25% at one point remember and then the most recent correction other than this one is 2022 uh if you remember interest rates were virtually at zero and the and the central banks raised rates all the way up to like 5% I shouldn't say all central banks the US Federal Reserve did and Canada followed so rates went really went up really fast and we had a market correction and a bond market correction because when rates go up bonds go down simultaneously and we only saw that four times in the last 100 years where the bond market and the stock market drops at the same time joseph what happened in 2023 and 2024 amazing years phenomenal years afterwards talk to people in 2024 remember that correction uh what correction they completely forgot but when it was in the middle of a correction it's like the end of the world we should get out we should try and time it and get back in no no no it's a big big mistake to time the markets okay I keep saying that so this is another correction where uh discounts are almost everywhere uh the main reason for this correction exactly is Trump and tariffs but uh what sector really dropped it's the magnificent 7 which was the best performing sectors over the last two years so the Max 7 which is really implicated in the artificial intelligence is not to be avoided you got to stay in it's the future artificial intelligence a lot of companies are integrating this technology in their business network it's happening more and more and so we're at the infancy stage and I believe has a long way to go the other 493 of the S&P 500 stocks held pretty well but it's really the MAX 7 that really took a dive so um I do see coming back and what about Tesla Karim so for those who hold the discretionary portfolios we sold Tesla we sold the entire position for the simple reason that it's become unfortunately too political and too toxic yeah uh it's too bad because we bought Tesla in January 2023 at about $142 to $143 USD a share right we exited the position entirely at 308 uh clients made over 100% and in addition to that I had sold even prior to that in the 400 range for some clients well most clients because I rebalance portfolios and so we took some profits off but we sold the entire position at 308 okay this quarter. So for those uh who want to know what we purchased instead of Tesla I will refer you to our quarterly mandate, a quarterly brief letter that we send out to all our discretionary clients only which discusses the ins and the outs what we bought what we sold so we may revisit Tesla because I think it's phenomenal company yeah I love the product they're the most advanced in in EV technology of any another car companies and so we will revisit if Trump gets if sorry if Elon gets out of the government or out of Tesla one or the other we'll reconsider it good to know so uh I just want to repeat it's an ideal time to remain invested and if you're sitting on cash on the sidelines it's a fantastic time to get in because in a year or two this correction will be forgotten as well absolutely and I can assure you that most likely your portfolios will be going up over the next 5 years maybe not up over the next 5 months but over the next 5 years your portfolios will most likely go up just want to give a couple of examples uh where to prove to you that we're not traders we're more of a buy and hold type of investor uh we had bought Apple uh the stock back in September 2013 we hold we hold for a long time i'll hold forever if I could okay and we bought the stock at 17 USD per share pre-split adjusted to all the splits today as of April uh the 1st the stock is at $223 a share now when it was at 17 it did go to 50 it dropped back down to 30 some clients are saying "Why didn't you get out at 50?" It's because I'm a buy and hold I don't trade why don't I Why don't we trade it's very taxable uh it's a lot of work for your accountant and it just it's not the right approach to investing that’s not how you generate wealth by trading in and out most traders have a hard time making money because they don't know their direction it's very especially with Trump there yeah we don't know what to own yeah so the key is to be diver to own a little bit of everything in the right sectors as best as we can and hang tight and uh that's a performance of over uh over 10 fold that's amazing there's gold as well I think gold is another one where we buy and hold we had bought gold uh the Royal Canadian Mint which is kind of like a certificate that trades it reflects gold bullion not gold mining companies but gold bullion uh we bought that in January 2018 at $17.67 a share today it's at $48 a share Canadian okay um and I could tell you gold is under owned people don't like gold I don't know why gold is a refuge when things go bad and gold is an excellent portfolio diversifier everybody should hold gold and all our discretionary portfolios have quite a significant holding in gold and uh it's under owned and I believe gold's going to be going higher and I also think Kareem that a good example you could give is 2022 when the market like bonds stocks went down gold went up exactly and if actually I look at gold's performance over the last three years versus the S&P 500 gold has done a performance of 16.87% very good annually over the last 3 years versus the S&P at 9% wow which goes to show diversification creates great opportunity it lowers your volatility and it enhances your return and that's what I call alpha you want to get those performing uh pieces in your portfolio that create that alpha and I'll just finish by saying the S&P in the first quarter uh lost 4% the TSX was a little bit above being flat uh and the good news is all our portfolios whether you have the most conservative of them all which is the revenue portfolio all the way up to the max growth portfolio the performance is at least 1% if not higher excellent for all our discretionary portfolios in the first quarter so I'm very happy to see that and I'm going to finish with if you're not comfortable with volatility I'm going to repeat this and I tell this often to clients if you're not comfortable with seeing your portfolio being volatile dropping 5% even 10% in any one moment in order to make more money down the road if you're not comfortable doing that put your money in a GIC they'll give you 3% but know this inflation is 3% and then you get taxed on the 3% so you lose one and a half% because most people are at 50% tax bracket you're guaranteed to have a loss of 1 and a.5% if you buy these types of products yeah it won't go down the value of your money will go down so this is where diversifying holding stocks holding bonds holding gold holding euros holding US uh USD holding yen holding Australian dollars make all the difference in your portfolio over a longer period of time and when I say long term I'm always focused on five years yeah well said thank you Karim um I want to remind you like I said at the beginning of the video that if you have any questions concern feel free to reach out we're here to help and to assist and uh I want to say thank you for listening to the video and we'll see you soon.

Hello everyone and Welcome to our Q2 2024 web capsule. I'm here with Joseph Antoine MCD Delani, our financial planner, and myself Karim Zakher, your portfolio manager. We're going to break this capsule down into two segments. The first one being little brief discussion on the uh capital gains tax inclusion that was imposed as of June 25th 2024 by the federal government. And then we'll talk about uh the market the situation uh we're in right now which is quite positive but we have to also reflect on 25 years of Economic and financial history that we'll touch on a little bit because it could determine where we're headed going into the future. So uh on that note let's begin with the capital gains inclusion rate information. Perfect Karim. Okay so let's discuss now about the capital gain new tax rule inclusion. So before we start uh what's a capital gain? Very simple. Capital game is when you buy an investment and you resell the same investment at a higher price that you purchase the investment initially. So I did a small um case here where someone is buying for example a second property or rental property at a price of 500,000 and is reselling the property at a price of 1 million. So in this case there will be a capital gain of 500,000. Before the new the new rule um the capital gain was taxable at 50%. Now things are a little bit different. Um you will have the first portion of 200 thou 250,000 that will be taxable at 50% but the second portion of 250,000 will be taxable well 66.67% will be included in your taxable income. So this being said if we add these two to together 290,000 for this transaction will be added to your taxable income compared to before June 25th the tax the added amount would be would have be 250,000. So for the same situation with the new rule 40,000 more will be added to your taxable income uh which is going to bring me to my second Point. Uh the type of revenues inside of a portfolio. You usually or investment you usually have three types of revenues. So you will have interest dividends and capital gain. So let's take this example for someone that is in the higher tax bracket. Um the interests are taxable at 53.3%. Dividends are taxable at 40%. And before the new rule capital gain were taxable at 26.7%. So it was a no-brainer before uh capital gains were the best choice of uh revenues because they were the less taxable. But with the new rule now 35.5% becomes taxable. Uh third topic here is the holding uh companies and the trust. So that rule is the new rule is applying directly on the first dollar of capital gain that is generated. So that makes a huge difference. That makes a huge difference for the capital gain exemption for the operating company. Before the new budget and the new rule it was 1 million that was Exempted as a capital gain when you're selling an operating company. Now the new amount is 1,250,000 that is possible to be exempt from a capital gain selling of a business. Thank you very much Joseph. Very pertinent uh could be very important to a lot of people. It's important to say that if you encounter this situation and you're fortunate enough to make a very large capital gain and you don't want to be hit with the high income taxes give us a call because we have certain tax shelters that are made available to our clients such as flow through shares. It's something I have to explain uh in more detail. I can do it on the uh capsule. You could run it by your accountant your tax specialist and see if it maybe is to your advantage. Let's jump now into the second topic. Uh Karim you've been in the industry for many years now. A portfolio managers for many years as well. Um I want to ask you the question what did the market teach you during the last 25 years? Let's begin with what's going on now. So the markets are uh doing very well. Uh and Main re main participants in this market that's pulling the market up since actually January 1st 2023 are the Magnificent Seven companies. The technology sector. And it's all because of artificial intelligence. It is going to be fundamental. Let's look back at time first. Okay. Let's Zoom back and get it and see what happened over the last 25 years. Okay so we've been through a lot. Okay. Uh especially me being in this industry. I've been through a lot in more than 25 years by the way. But let's just go back 25 years. So we've been through the technology bubble back in 1999. Had you invested in the NASDAQ which is comprised of technology stocks uh at the peak of the bubble in 1999 uh and the bubble of course we all know it burst in 2000 uh it would have taken you 14 years to recuperate your money. Now if you were smart enough to invest a year prior to the to the peak of that bubble it would have taken you 11 years to recuperate your money. So um we must remember that these scenarios can unfold. Right. In addition to the bubble I mean we've had in over the last 25 years wars. We've had terrorism. Uh we've had our housing crisis in the United States. A financial crisis around the world. And more recently we all remember the pandemic. Uh and so we have to also look at the fact that Cycles do repeat themselves to a certain degree. They're not identical but they do rhyme. And eventually in the next five maybe seven years something's going to happen. It's expected. And the only way to mitigate one's portfolio is to be properly Diversified. Which means that you need to buy uncorrelated assets within the portfolio. It's our responsibility to manage the risk within a portfolio. And often I get asked well why isn't this company why isn't this stock going up and why is that thing not doing you know anything. Uh simple reason is you don't want everything to be correlated. What's going up today may not go up tomorrow. And what's not gone up today is probably going to go up tomorrow. So you want to have an uncorrelated portfolio. You want to be Diversified. Because diversification is like an insurance policy. It protects you from situations like 1999. By studying economic and financial history you'll have a better grasp as to what can happen. And it will happen. It's just a matter of time. Right. Right now we're enjoying a nice rally. I'm expecting it to continue until the end of the year. It will not be a straight line. Expect volatility. But the reason there's a rally is because like I said earlier artificial intelligence is going to change the world. It's beginning to change the world. Just like the electric light bulb changed the world. Just like the automobile changed the world. Just like the internet changed the world. Look what we're doing right now Joseph. We're communicating through the internet. Something we could not be we could not do 25 years ago. So the world is going to change. And we've got to change with it. We got to be invested in the right sectors in order to profit from it. But uh at the same time we must always be vigilant that uh things can happen. It could turn on a dime. So uh I'm still very hopeful. It's also good news that the Bank of Canada lowered its interest rate by a quarter point uh last June. Uh it looks like there's going to be another couple of drops between now and the end of the year with their interest rates. That's going to be positive for final assets. The Central Bank in the United States or I should say the Federal Reserve in the United States is also looking to lower rates. So expect a couple of drops between now and the end of the year. Again positive for the markets. Throwing in the fact that there are people sitting with at least six trillion dollars in cash on the sidelines. Uh this is eventually going to make its way into the market. Because this is the least liked bull market I've ever seen. Or one of the least liked bull markets I've seen. Many are not participating. That's not the case for our clients. Because our portfolios are doing well along with the markets. Uh but there are many people sitting on the sidelines waiting for Armageddon. And uh and you know things to collapse. And it never really goes that bad. Okay. When markets go well people think it's going to continue to go well. And when markets go badly like in 2020 during the pandemic people have this belief that it's just going to keep going bad forever. It's not the case. Markets work in Cycles. On that note I want to say thank you for listening to us. Enjoy your summer. We'll be back in October just before the US election. So that's going to be interesting. Uh to see what transpires with that. See you soon. Bye.

Hello everyone and Welcome to our Q2 2024 web capsule. I'm here with Joseph Antoine MCD Delani, our financial planner, and myself Karim Zakher, your portfolio manager. We're going to break this capsule down into two segments. The first one being little brief discussion on the uh capital gains tax inclusion that was imposed as of June 25th 2024 by the federal government. And then we'll talk about uh the market the situation uh we're in right now which is quite positive but we have to also reflect on 25 years of Economic and financial history that we'll touch on a little bit because it could determine where we're headed going into the future. So uh on that note let's begin with the capital gains inclusion rate information. Perfect Karim. Okay so let's discuss now about the capital gain new tax rule inclusion. So before we start uh what's a capital gain? Very simple. Capital game is when you buy an investment and you resell the same investment at a higher price that you purchase the investment initially. So I did a small um case here where someone is buying for example a second property or rental property at a price of 500,000 and is reselling the property at a price of 1 million. So in this case there will be a capital gain of 500,000. Before the new the new rule um the capital gain was taxable at 50%. Now things are a little bit different. Um you will have the first portion of 200 thou 250,000 that will be taxable at 50% but the second portion of 250,000 will be taxable well 66.67% will be included in your taxable income. So this being said if we add these two to together 290,000 for this transaction will be added to your taxable income compared to before June 25th the tax the added amount would be would have be 250,000. So for the same situation with the new rule 40,000 more will be added to your taxable income uh which is going to bring me to my second Point. Uh the type of revenues inside of a portfolio. You usually or investment you usually have three types of revenues. So you will have interest dividends and capital gain. So let's take this example for someone that is in the higher tax bracket. Um the interests are taxable at 53.3%. Dividends are taxable at 40%. And before the new rule capital gain were taxable at 26.7%. So it was a no-brainer before uh capital gains were the best choice of uh revenues because they were the less taxable. But with the new rule now 35.5% becomes taxable. Uh third topic here is the holding uh companies and the trust. So that rule is the new rule is applying directly on the first dollar of capital gain that is generated. So that makes a huge difference. That makes a huge difference for the capital gain exemption for the operating company. Before the new budget and the new rule it was 1 million that was Exempted as a capital gain when you're selling an operating company. Now the new amount is 1,250,000 that is possible to be exempt from a capital gain selling of a business. Thank you very much Joseph. Very pertinent uh could be very important to a lot of people. It's important to say that if you encounter this situation and you're fortunate enough to make a very large capital gain and you don't want to be hit with the high income taxes give us a call because we have certain tax shelters that are made available to our clients such as flow through shares. It's something I have to explain uh in more detail. I can do it on the uh capsule. You could run it by your accountant your tax specialist and see if it maybe is to your advantage. Let's jump now into the second topic. Uh Karim you've been in the industry for many years now. A portfolio managers for many years as well. Um I want to ask you the question what did the market teach you during the last 25 years? Let's begin with what's going on now. So the markets are uh doing very well. Uh and Main re main participants in this market that's pulling the market up since actually January 1st 2023 are the Magnificent Seven companies. The technology sector. And it's all because of artificial intelligence. It is going to be fundamental. Let's look back at time first. Okay. Let's Zoom back and get it and see what happened over the last 25 years. Okay so we've been through a lot. Okay. Uh especially me being in this industry. I've been through a lot in more than 25 years by the way. But let's just go back 25 years. So we've been through the technology bubble back in 1999. Had you invested in the NASDAQ which is comprised of technology stocks uh at the peak of the bubble in 1999 uh and the bubble of course we all know it burst in 2000 uh it would have taken you 14 years to recuperate your money. Now if you were smart enough to invest a year prior to the to the peak of that bubble it would have taken you 11 years to recuperate your money. So um we must remember that these scenarios can unfold. Right. In addition to the bubble I mean we've had in over the last 25 years wars. We've had terrorism. Uh we've had our housing crisis in the United States. A financial crisis around the world. And more recently we all remember the pandemic. Uh and so we have to also look at the fact that Cycles do repeat themselves to a certain degree. They're not identical but they do rhyme. And eventually in the next five maybe seven years something's going to happen. It's expected. And the only way to mitigate one's portfolio is to be properly Diversified. Which means that you need to buy uncorrelated assets within the portfolio. It's our responsibility to manage the risk within a portfolio. And often I get asked well why isn't this company why isn't this stock going up and why is that thing not doing you know anything. Uh simple reason is you don't want everything to be correlated. What's going up today may not go up tomorrow. And what's not gone up today is probably going to go up tomorrow. So you want to have an uncorrelated portfolio. You want to be Diversified. Because diversification is like an insurance policy. It protects you from situations like 1999. By studying economic and financial history you'll have a better grasp as to what can happen. And it will happen. It's just a matter of time. Right. Right now we're enjoying a nice rally. I'm expecting it to continue until the end of the year. It will not be a straight line. Expect volatility. But the reason there's a rally is because like I said earlier artificial intelligence is going to change the world. It's beginning to change the world. Just like the electric light bulb changed the world. Just like the automobile changed the world. Just like the internet changed the world. Look what we're doing right now Joseph. We're communicating through the internet. Something we could not be we could not do 25 years ago. So the world is going to change. And we've got to change with it. We got to be invested in the right sectors in order to profit from it. But uh at the same time we must always be vigilant that uh things can happen. It could turn on a dime. So uh I'm still very hopeful. It's also good news that the Bank of Canada lowered its interest rate by a quarter point uh last June. Uh it looks like there's going to be another couple of drops between now and the end of the year with their interest rates. That's going to be positive for final assets. The Central Bank in the United States or I should say the Federal Reserve in the United States is also looking to lower rates. So expect a couple of drops between now and the end of the year. Again positive for the markets. Throwing in the fact that there are people sitting with at least six trillion dollars in cash on the sidelines. Uh this is eventually going to make its way into the market. Because this is the least liked bull market I've ever seen. Or one of the least liked bull markets I've seen. Many are not participating. That's not the case for our clients. Because our portfolios are doing well along with the markets. Uh but there are many people sitting on the sidelines waiting for Armageddon. And uh and you know things to collapse. And it never really goes that bad. Okay. When markets go well people think it's going to continue to go well. And when markets go badly like in 2020 during the pandemic people have this belief that it's just going to keep going bad forever. It's not the case. Markets work in Cycles. On that note I want to say thank you for listening to us. Enjoy your summer. We'll be back in October just before the US election. So that's going to be interesting. Uh to see what transpires with that. See you soon. Bye.