Hello everyone, my name is Joseph-Antoine Migdilani. Today I am with Karim Zakher, our portfolio manager. Welcome to our quarterly web capsule. So already in July, Karim, um uh weather has been pretty great since the beginning of the summer. Have you been you've been enjoying uh the summer so far?
Absolutely. I love summer. Uh I've been uh I've been cycling a lot this year, which uh it relaxes it relaxes me. Um it calms our nerves. Absolutely.
And I just want to say congratulations to you, Joseph, for having uh a new member to your family.
Absolutely. A little girl. Yeah. Congratulations.
We're super happy. Great news.
Thank you, Karim. My wife and I are super happy. The nights are uh shorter a little bit, but uh it's uh absolutely worth it. Absolutely. It's a beautiful thing.
Yeah, absolutely. So, uh let's jump right into the finance. Karim, uh market has been doing pretty good so far. Um and I just want to I just want to go back like five years ago and and remember our clientele that we've been facing a lot of a lot of things like the market have been facing pandemic tariff uh war interest rate hike like a lot of things happened but market still doing pretty good so why don't you talk about it a little bit
yeah I'd love to um a lot's been thrown at this market and in including latest one the tariffs and uh this market's been extremely resilient um even though we we did encounter a correction this year of about 20% the S&P 500 uh from February 19th all the way to April 8th of this year and it's incredible how the market just just came back it had a Vshape Vshape recovery very fast.
Mhm. Uh considering everything that's been thrown at it.
Yeah. You know, so um this this uh this affects a lot of the nerves for investors. Uh we've gone through many shocks as you've just described. Uh but consider the following. Okay. Why did the market still come back in in this year in 2025? Well, first off, Trump imposed tariffs and he watered them down. So the market's becoming used to whatever he says doesn't seem to stick all the way. Uh secondly, we had economists all over the planet believing that the US was going to hit a recession and we have yet to see it in the United States. Canada's feeling it a bit, but the US doesn't doesn't hit it at all. So uh that means that a lot of people have been selling stocks uh and and sitting on the sidelines and and and then the last uh point is we had a waterfall decline in you know February to April and uh the V-shaped recovery which means that sentiment in general is still quite bearish. It's very negative. Again a lot of money sitting on the sidelines. Um people don't feel good about this bull market. Actually, it's one of the most hated bull markets. People are scared of it to death, but yet the market is resilient, continues to go up and and we've hit all-time high.
So, the markets have hit all-time highs end of June. Uh our portfolios are are hitting all-time highs as well. Uh our growth portfolios are performing outstandingly. Um even though the even the safest portfolio is doing decent, a lot better than what a GIC would pay at a bank for sure.
Uh so overall we've had a good 6 months and I invite all our clients to look at their statements and compare the statements you get in in July which would be the end of June statement. Compare it to the end of December and you'll see the progression of your portfolio considering all we've been through.
Yeah. So we've had a lot of people panic actually. I remember uh in in February and March very few uh sold uh we were able to convince clients to stay the course invested and so it's paid off. Uh unfortunately those who sold out well they left a lot of money on the table. So, as long as you hold good quality investments, Joseph, such as bonds, uh, gold bullion, and you hold good companies, good stocks with strong balance sheets and are very resilient in their industries, uh, the stock market will price earnings growth. Short-term, it's emotions that drive the prices, but long term, it's always the fundamentals of business that drive the prices.
And I remember a couple of weeks ago, you gave me a stat. Uh I think it was like the market is supposed to go up 70% of the time. Is that it?
Well, that that's exactly the point is that stock market, if you look back at history, even go back 100 years. The market has a tendency to go up 70% of the time. And we've had a lot of problems in the world over the last h 100red years. I don't have to to explain what they are. Everybody knows. Everybody lived it. We just lived through a whole slew of them in the last 5 years. It brings me to my second question, Karim. Um, we're half of the year now. Um, what are your expectations for the next uh six months?
So, normally when we get a 20% correction in a year, statistically, the odds of having another drop in the market 6 months later are very low. They're practically 0%. We may stagnate for a little while. Um, but to have another correction after we've had a correction of 20 over 20% for the S&P 500, I don't see it happening. I think it's possible, but it's highly unlikely.
Okay. Okay. So, I'm still positive into the end of the year and into the next 12 months.
Great. Throw in the fact uh that the US Federal Reserve is under pressure to cut interest rates. So is Canada. So we expect drops of at least uh at least two two interest rate cuts maybe a quarter point each if not this year definitely most definitely by next year. Uh throw in the fact that people are becoming immunized to the the Trump tariff news which is helping the market. And lastly, we're going into an election year in 2026 in the United States, the midterm election, and which means that, you know, the House is up for grabs and the Senate is up for grabs. And of course, the government in power doesn't want to doesn't want to seed its power to another another political party. So, the the government is most likely going to be market friendly for sure. All this to say that I'm expecting a decent end ofear performance. Okay. And possibly into the next year.
Great. So, I would remain invested and when you do see these opportunities where the markets drop, it's the time to be buying. I we've always said that. And yet, uh when people choose to stay on the sidelines and wait for a better time to get in, guess what? By the time you feel good, the ship has sailed. too late. Yeah. So, I would just say stay the course. Hopefully, we'll have a nice end of year performance for all the portfolios.
Thanks, Karim. And uh just to finish uh I want to remind everyone that if you have any questions concerning concerning your investments, if you have more time this summer because it's a little bit more quiet, you could reach out to review your strategy of investments. We could do a financial plan, retirement plan if we can help you, a member of a family or friends. Please don't hesitate to reach out and uh we're going to be more than happy to book a meeting with you.
Thank you.