Hello, everyone and welcome to Economic Impact. Today is July 11,
2024, and as usual, I am with our Chief Economist, Stéfane Marion.
Good morning, Stéfane.
Good morning, Denis.
Once again, we're going to start with the performance of the stock
market. It's going well, huh?
Yeah, it's been a hot summer, not just temperature wise. Stock
market is on fire. We have records pretty much everywhere around the
planet. Notice, Denis, if we focus on the US it’s 17% up this year,
but driven by sectors, 2 sector sectors in particular, it's anything
related to IT or technology, media and telcos. Yeah.
And they're doing very, very well compared to the rest of the other sectors.
Massively well. So much so that you know, the market share of the
TMT sector now accounts for 40% of the S&P 500's valuation, which
is a big deal Denis because we haven't seen this in 20 years. So keep
this in mind. It represents 40% of the market cap of US equities, but
only 24% of earnings. So there's high hopes that to hear that the this
sector will continue to deliver on the earnings front.
And not only analysts have hopes for the TMT sectors, but they have
hopes also for the whole economy.
Oh yeah. And it's not just that, you know, earnings will continue to
do well. It's actually that they will even do better going into the
next 12 months. So economy wide US expectations for earnings to
accelerate from, you know, roughly 8% where we are now to growth of
13%. Notice on the slide too for the IT sector, the expectations, as
you will pick up speed on the earnings growth and reach a pretty
impressive figure in the next 12 months, 20%, Denis. So you better
hope that everything is fine.
They're drinking nice Kool-Aid, maybe. If you look at the economy
and the news that we have and the data that we're collecting so far,
it doesn't show that.
I don't mind if they're doing Kool-Aid, but there might be too much
sugar in that Kool-Aid right now. Because if you look at the economic
surprise index in the US, then it's the worst reading since 2015. So
it's been a massive downward surprise recently. It doesn't mean that
the economy is not growing, Denis, it's just growing much less rapidly
than what we've seen in the past. And this is what you have to take
into context. If your economic surprises are negative, can you
actually deliver on better earnings growth? And what history suggests
is, given the current reading that we're seeing on economic surprise,
which is a 2 standard deviation, historically, earnings are actually
revised down as opposed to being revised up. So that's the challenge
for equity market price for perfection with an economy that does not
decelerate. But unfortunately, that's not what we're seeing right now.
Economic surprise suggests deceleration.
Yeah. To make things worse, the labor markets, you know, keep deteriorating.
So this is a topic we addressed in the past. You know, in order to,
you know, boost your earnings, if you can't do with the higher sells,
you have to increase your profit margins. If you increase your profit
margins you might need to reposition your hiring pace. And what we're
seeing in US right now is the unemployment rate is on the rise up
above 4% for the first time since 2021. So clearly that's a big-ticket
item for the economy because that's that 60% of GDP in US is
determined by consumer spending. I can tell you that when the
unemployment rate is rising, Denis, historically consumer spending
does not accelerate.
And to keep going in the same direction. Our leading economic
indicator keeps going downward.
Yeah, so this is where we are now. So the unemployment rate would be
more coincident. So what about the outlook? Well, if you look at
leading indicators in the US and leading economic indicators, it's
actually back to where it was at the worst of the COVID recession. So
again, Denis, it's just to say that anticipating a better economy in
the months ahead might be a challenge because most indicators would
suggest a weaker economy, not a stronger economy, which opens the door
for rate cuts, don't get me wrong. But will the Fed be able to cut
rates aggressively given where we already are and that monetary policy
remains restrictive? So again, it's a challenge for earnings growth in
the months ahead.
And if we come back to Canada, we'll look at the, you know, jobless
rate. Not that good too. Well, it was 6.5% of the national level. But
if you want to dig a little bit deeper to look at younger people, 15-
to 24-year-old, I mean, you know, it's an unemployment rate above 13%
for the first time in a decade so there's got to be some frustrated
parents around the table nowadays. And it is an issue. And it does
show that once the economy starts doing worse, well, yeah, younger
people will be hit first. And this is exactly what we're seeing right
now. So there's clearly a deceleration of the economy that's ongoing
right now in this country. So let's not be too greedy on earnings
growth also from a Canadian perspective.
Yeah. And at the same time, you know, we talked quite a lot about
the soft landing. Is it still true? Well, the Bank of Canada has been,
you know, going public saying that it's mission accomplished on a soft
landing or it looks good for that. I would say, well, depends. Denis,
there will always be a landing. I don't know if it's going to be soft
or hard, but I can tell you in the GTA right now, the Greater Toronto
Area, which is 20% of the Canadian economy, retail sales are actually
contracting. And that's a reflection of deterioration in labor
markets, restrictive monetary policy, mortgage interest rate resets,
right. So yes, the economy is clearly slowing from beginning in
perspective. So I don't know yet whether it's mission accomplished on
a soft landing or not. I do believe that the Bank of Canada is in
position to cut rates a little bit more aggressively in the months
ahead. But monetary policy will still be restrictive by the end of
this year, meaning the economy will underperform.
And to wrap it up a little bit, you know, we're seeing an economy
that is slowing down then probably more rate cuts. But at the same
time, we have analysts that have a prediction of pretty nice growth
of, you know, revenue of a company or bottom line of a company. We
need to be careful here.
Yeah, the next few weeks will be very telling. No, next few weeks
will be very telling. We're about to start the earnings reporting
season. So let's keep an eye on that. I do believe Denis, as you say
that expectations are too aggressive from my standpoint.
We haven't talked inflation yet. It's our favorite subject. Now
you're bringing us on what's going on in the eurozone.
Yeah, because you asked me to speak to politicians and I have to
speak to politicians I have to speak to inflation at the same time. We
saw elections in Europe where the incumbents have been defeated and
the parties have been elected, whether it's UK or France, are
promising to deliver on services to their people, but I'm just not
sure they can be very aggressive on that front. And what that does is
when you have these politicians that are promising more fiscal
stimulus, well, that keeps your inflation and service component
higher, which limits the ability for central bank to cut rates. And
Denis that's a reality in the US, in Europe, even from a Canadian
perspective, and that brings the great uncertainty as we look towards
the next 12 months in 2025, how will central banks be able to cut
rates if politicians continue to promise to spend more? And if you
promise to spend more, keep an eye on service inflation that will
determine the ability of these central banks to cut or not. Right now,
I have to say some cuts are coming, but they cannot cut aggressively
because of politicians.
OK, on that thank you, Stéfane. Thank you, everyone for being with
us today. We'll see you back in September because in August, you know,
it's holiday season for us too. Then hopefully we'll see you back in
September. Thank you for joining us today.