National Bank Financial - Wealth Management (NBFWM) is a division of National Bank Financial Inc. (NBF), as well as a trademark owned by National Bank of Canada (NBC) that is used under license by NBF. NBF is a member of the Canadian Investment Regulatory Organization (CIRO) and the Canadian Investor Protection Fund (CIPF), and is a wholly owned subsidiary of NBC, a public company listed on the Toronto Stock Exchange (TSX: NA). The information contained herein has been prepared by Eric Van Enk, Portfolio Manager and Wealth Advisor at NBF. I have prepared this article to the best of my judgment and professional experience to give you my thoughts on various financial aspects and considerations. The opinions expressed represent solely my informed opinions and may not reflect the views of NBF. The particulars contained herein were obtained from sources we believe to be reliable but are not guaranteed by us and may be incomplete. The opinions expressed are based upon our analysis and interpretation of these particulars and are not to be construed as a solicitation or offer to buy or sell the securities mentioned herein. The opinions expressed do not necessarily reflect those of NBF.
Trends in Canadian population growth & housing
January 24, 2026, Insight from Eric Van Enk, Wealth Advisor & Associate Portfolio Manager
Trends in Canadian population growth & housing | Kunz Financial Group
Happy New Year and trust everyone enjoyed a much-needed break over the holidays! This week’s chart will be interesting to readers in the Medicine Hat area as well as other smaller cities as it highlights that population growth is shifting from Canada’s largest cities (Toronto, Montreal & Vancouver shown in the chart on the left) to smaller population centers. Given population growth is a key driver of home prices (population growth & home price correlation displayed in the chart on the right), smaller population centers are experiencing stronger home price appreciation relative to larger centers like Toronto and Vancouver which are experiencing a decline in home prices after many years of double-digit percentage gains.
Canada: Big cities lose momentum as population growth shifts gears
Source: National Bank Financial
Canadian population data for 2025 was released by Statistics Canada last week. It clearly shows the impact of a shift in Federal Government immigration policy (declining non-permanent residents) with large cities experiencing a more pronounced decrease in population growth relative to the rest of the country. Growth in metropolitan areas has slowed from 3.6% in 2024 to 1.0% in 2025. However, population growth has slowed significantly less outside of major cities (from 1.4% to 0.8%). If we examine population growth in Canada’s three largest cities, you will notice a significant slowdown in Toronto and Vancouver, where population growth has stalled. Vancouver hasn’t seen population growth this low in more than a quarter century and this abrupt change in immigration has led to a correction in housing prices. In Toronto, population growth hasn’t been this low since the pandemic. Also of interest, for the first time since this type of population data collection began, Montreal recorded higher population growth than Toronto and Vancouver. Notice from the correlation chart on the right, Montreal is the only member of Canada’s big three cities to enjoy an increase in home prices last year. This is logical as Montreal experienced higher population growth and has lower absolute house prices relative to Toronto and Vancouver. We believe the shift in the Federal Government’s immigration policy will continue to represent a drag on Canada's housing market over coming years, with a larger impact in Canada’s biggest cities which were the primary beneficiaries of Trudeau era immigration policies. However, a counterbalancing mechanism exists with the Bank of Canada lowering short-term interest rates. We acknowledge pent-up demand for new houses which could be released with lower interest rates and partially offset the negative impact of slower population growth.
Eric Van Enk, Wealth Advisor & Associate Portfolio Manager
National Bank Financial – Wealth Management
Medicine Hat, AB
